I’ll toss an extra part out on Strength of Schedule. Dennis Lyons specifically asked about touchdowns, but I’m also including yards and fantasy points, since it makes the math more manageable. (With touchdowns, you get lots of ties; with the yards-TD combo, I can rank the schedules 1 thru 32 for each year). And looking at the last five years, the results seem to be pretty similar to what we saw the larger study already posted.
I’ll start with rushing defenses (and I’m keeping this short because I’m working on other stuff today).
Here are the 20 easiest run schedules of the last five years, based on the scoring system of 1 point for every 10 yards and 6 points for touchdowns. I took the four easiest schedules from each year (see the rank number after the team name).
Of the 20 easiest schedules, seven of those teams (a third) actually went on and played a schedule ranking in the top 5 in easiness. Two other teams played top-10 schedule, and only three of the 20 teams (15 percent) were of the reverse-barometer type, ranking in the bottom 10 in difficulty.
On all of these charts, I’m not showing the expected (projected, preseason) numbers, but how the schedules actually turned out. And for all teams, I’m removing the team itself from consideration. Otherwise, a high-powered team like the Broncos would appear to be playing a hard schedule, simply because it was clobbering the 16 opponents it was facing.
| EASIEST RUN DEFENSES OF LAST FIVE YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2010 | Seattle (1) | 119 | .84 | 16.9 | 7 |
| 2011 | Tennessee (1) | 120 | .88 | 17.3 | 4 |
| 2012 | Atlanta (1) | 116 | .79 | 16.3 | 17 |
| 2013 | Miami (1) | 122 | .78 | 16.8 | 24 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia (1) | 112 | .72 | 15.6 | 14 |
| 2010 | Kansas City (2) | 123 | .93 | 17.9 | 1 |
| 2011 | Minnesota (2) | 119 | .77 | 16.5 | 13 |
| 2012 | Kansas City (2) | 112 | .83 | 16.2 | 19 |
| 2013 | Tampa Bay (2) | 116 | .75 | 16.1 | 32 |
| 2014 | Baltimore (2) | 120 | .79 | 16.7 | 1 |
| 2010 | San Diego (3) | 124 | .89 | 17.7 | 3 |
| 2011 | San Diego (3) | 118 | .77 | 16.5 | 15 |
| 2012 | San Diego (3) | 116 | .82 | 16.5 | 9 |
| 2013 | Houston (3) | 120 | .98 | 17.9 | 13 |
| 2014 | Arizona (3) | 107 | .69 | 14.8 | 22 |
| 2010 | San Francisco (4) | 123 | .85 | 17.4 | 4 |
| 2011 | Miami (4) | 121 | .86 | 17.3 | 5 |
| 2012 | Miami (4) | 121 | .90 | 17.5 | 1 |
| 2013 | NY Jets (4) | 123 | .83 | 17.3 | 20 |
| 2014 | Green Bay (4) | 105 | .68 | 14.6 | 25 |
| Avg | 20 teams | 118 | .82 | 16.7 | 12.5 |
Here’s the sister chart: teams that were suppose to have bottom-4 schedules (against the run). With this group, the same ratio (9 of 20, 45 percent) did what they were suppose to do, ranking in the bottom 10 in difficulty. Only five managed to flip things and have top-10 (easy schedules).
Overall, we’re not looking at a huge difference. Easy schedules, on average, resulted in 118 yards per game, 3 more than the hard schedules. And easy schedules, on average, saw 13.1 rushing touchdowns per season, which is almost one touchdown more than hard schedules (12.3).
Overall fantasy difference is a half of a fantasy point per game – 16.7 to 16.2. That’s about a 3 percent difference.
| HARDEST RUN DEFENSES OF LAST FIVE YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2010 | NY Giants (32) | 114 | .82 | 16.3 | 12 |
| 2011 | Arizona (32) | 114 | .71 | 15.7 | 27 |
| 2012 | Detroit (32) | 116 | .71 | 15.9 | 26 |
| 2013 | Baltimore (32) | 125 | .93 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 2014 | Tampa Bay (32) | 115 | .81 | 16.4 | 3 |
| 2010 | Chicago (31) | 116 | .78 | 16.3 | 11 |
| 2011 | Cleveland (31) | 111 | .74 | 15.5 | 29 |
| 2012 | Arizona (31) | 113 | .76 | 15.9 | 25 |
| 2013 | Green Bay (31) | 122 | .96 | 18.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | NY Jets (31) | 109 | .61 | 14.5 | 27 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia (30) | 109 | .74 | 15.4 | 26 |
| 2011 | Seattle (30) | 112 | .70 | 15.5 | 31 |
| 2012 | NY Giants (30) | 113 | .80 | 16.1 | 20 |
| 2013 | Detroit (30) | 125 | .98 | 18.3 | 1 |
| 2014 | Tennessee (30) | 115 | .71 | 15.8 | 12 |
| 2010 | Buffalo (29) | 104 | .68 | 14.4 | 32 |
| 2011 | Baltimore (29) | 117 | .72 | 16.0 | 24 |
| 2012 | Green Bay (29) | 118 | .72 | 16.1 | 22 |
| 2013 | NY Giants (29) | 122 | 1.00 | 18.2 | 3 |
| 2014 | Denver (29) | 112 | .60 | 14.8 | 21 |
| Avg | 20 teams | 115 | .77 | 16.2 | 18.4 |
Shifting to the pass defenses, the numbers look pretty similar.
First the expected easy defenses. Of the 20 pulled out, 12 of them ended up ranking in the top 10. Only two ranked in the bottom 10, and only two others were even below average. So there is some loose correlation between what’s expected to happen and what actually transpires on the field.
| EASIEST PASS DEFENSES OF LAST FIVE YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2010 | Washington (1) | 239 | 1.60 | 33.5 | 7 |
| 2011 | Pittsburgh (1) | 226 | 1.19 | 29.8 | 30 |
| 2012 | New Orleans (1) | 253 | 1.55 | 34.6 | 5 |
| 2013 | Dallas (1) | 283 | 1.72 | 38.7 | 6 |
| 2014 | NY Giants (1) | 259 | 1.48 | 34.8 | 11 |
| 2010 | Dallas (2) | 241 | 1.44 | 32.7 | 12 |
| 2011 | Philadelphia (2) | 252 | 1.43 | 33.8 | 15 |
| 2012 | Tampa Bay (2) | 256 | 1.56 | 34.9 | 3 |
| 2013 | Denver (2) | 274 | 1.62 | 37.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Minnesota (2) | 260 | 1.56 | 35.3 | 3 |
| 2010 | Philadelphia (3) | 246 | 1.52 | 33.7 | 5 |
| 2011 | NY Giants (3) | 248 | 1.42 | 33.4 | 19 |
| 2012 | Atlanta (3) | 259 | 1.70 | 36.1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Philadelphia (3) | 284 | 1.87 | 39.6 | 3 |
| 2014 | New England (3) | 241 | 1.45 | 32.8 | 29 |
| 2010 | NY Giants (4) | 248 | 1.57 | 34.3 | 2 |
| 2011 | Washington (4) | 253 | 1.55 | 34.6 | 8 |
| 2012 | Carolina (4) | 261 | 1.59 | 35.6 | 2 |
| 2013 | Kansas City (4) | 281 | 1.81 | 38.9 | 4 |
| 2014 | San Francisco (4) | 255 | 1.45 | 34.2 | 17 |
| Avg | 20 teams | 256 | 1.55 | 34.9 | 9.8 |
Finally, here are the 20 teams from the last five years that were suppose to play the hardest pass defense. Only five of these 20 were able to flip things and play top-10 (easy) schedules.
Overall, the hard-schedule teams saw opponents allowing 249 passing yards per game, 7 fewer than the easy-schedule team. The easy-schedule teams saw opponents giving up 24.8 TD passes per season, versus 24.5 for the hard-schedule teams, which isn’t much of a difference.
Overall difference between a hard (bottom-4) and easy (top-4) schedule was 2 percent.
| HARDEST PASS DEFENSES OF LAST FIVE YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yards | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2010 | Baltimore (32) | 233 | 1.40 | 31.6 | 23 |
| 2011 | Minnesota (32) | 263 | 1.61 | 36.0 | 2 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati (32) | 243 | 1.50 | 33.3 | 19 |
| 2013 | Cleveland (32) | 268 | 1.69 | 36.9 | 15 |
| 2014 | Carolina (32) | 263 | 1.46 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 2010 | New England (31) | 220 | 1.30 | 29.8 | 32 |
| 2011 | Detroit (31) | 259 | 1.61 | 35.6 | 5 |
| 2012 | Pittsburgh (31) | 245 | 1.52 | 33.6 | 14 |
| 2013 | Tennessee (31) | 267 | 1.70 | 36.8 | 19 |
| 2014 | Cincinnati (31) | 261 | 1.51 | 35.1 | 5 |
| 2010 | Cleveland (30) | 233 | 1.38 | 31.6 | 26 |
| 2011 | Green Bay (30) | 251 | 1.57 | 34.5 | 11 |
| 2012 | New England (30) | 234 | 1.33 | 31.4 | 32 |
| 2013 | Baltimore (30) | 265 | 1.77 | 37.1 | 12 |
| 2014 | Denver (30) | 235 | 1.32 | 31.5 | 32 |
| 2010 | Miami (29) | 231 | 1.46 | 31.9 | 22 |
| 2011 | Kansas City (29) | 258 | 1.67 | 35.8 | 3 |
| 2012 | Baltimore (29) | 243 | 1.57 | 33.8 | 12 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati (29) | 268 | 1.68 | 36.9 | 18 |
| 2014 | Buffalo (29) | 247 | 1.58 | 34.2 | 16 |
| Avg | 20 teams | 249 | 1.53 | 34.1 | 16.3 |
—Ian Allan