It looks like Strength of Schedule will play a larger role than usual this year. The two weakest divisions (AFC South, NFC South) are lined up to go head-to-head, and that results in those teams projecting to play unusually soft schedules. There’s more of a spread between the teams this year.

There have been 510 teams since 2000, so in a typical year, you would expect two of them to show up amongst the 30 easiest schedules (when looking at all 510 of those teams). But that’s not the case. Instead, three of the five easiest schedules of the last 16 years are in this group, with four others in the top 17.

Tennessee projects to have only the 7th-easiest schedule this year, but in the last 15 years, only 10 teams have entered the season projecting to play easier schedules. The Titans’ opponents went a combined 111-144-1 last year.

EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2000
YearTeamWinLossTiePct
2008New England991570.387
2015Atlanta1041502.410
2009Chicago1051492.414
2015Indianapolis1061491.416
2015Houston1061482.418
2009Minnesota1071481.420
2008San Diego1081480.422
2015Tampa Bay1081462.426
2000Philadelphia1091470.426
2009Green Bay1091461.428
2015New Orleans1091452.430
2014Indianapolis1101460.430
2013Denver1101460.430
2000St. Louis1101460.430
2015Carolina1111450.434
2009Pittsburgh1101442.434
2015Tennessee1111441.436
2014Tennessee1121440.438
2009Baltimore1111432.438
2008Oakland1121440.438
2002Cleveland1121440.438
2014Houston1131430.441
2011Arizona1131430.441
2009Arizona1131430.441
2002Pittsburgh1131430.441
2002Houston1131430.441
2000Oakland1131430.441
2000Arizona1131430.441
2009San Francisco1131421.443
2003Seattle1131421.443
2003Arizona1131421.443
2010Arizona1141420.445
2008Denver1141420.445
2006Chicago1141420.445
2005St. Louis1141420.445
2002Cincinnati1141420.445
2010St. Louis1151410.449
2009Cleveland1141402.449
2008Buffalo1151410.449
2008New Orleans1151410.449
2006Green Bay1151410.449
2005Arizona1151410.449
2003Green Bay1151410.449
2002Jacksonville1151410.449
2000Denver1151410.449

Of course, scheduling is a zero-sum game. There is always an equal number of wins and losses. So if there are a bunch of teams with really easy, that means other teams have to play schedules that are harder than usual.

Of the 32 hardest schedules of the last 16 years, there are six 2015 squads in the group, led by the Steelers.

HARDEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2000
YearTeamWinLossTiePct
2008Pittsburgh1531030.598
2009Miami1521040.594
2008Indianapolis1521040.594
2009Carolina1511041.592
2009New England1511050.590
2009Atlanta1501051.588
2000Buffalo1501060.586
2009Tampa Bay1481071.580
2015Pittsburgh1471072.578
2014Oakland1481080.578
2001Minnesota1471090.574
2014Denver1461100.570
2009Buffalo1461100.570
2000Miami1461100.570
2009NY Jets1451101.568
2014St. Louis1441111.564
2015Cincinnati1441120.563
2014San Diego1441120.563
2014San Francisco1441120.563
2000Indianapolis1441120.563
2015San Francisco1431121.561
2014Seattle1431121.561
2015Seattle1421122.559
2014Kansas City1431130.559
2008Jacksonville1431130.559
2000NY Jets1431130.559
2015Arizona1421131.557
2009New Orleans1421131.557
2011Carolina1421140.555
2001Tampa Bay1421140.555
2000Minnesota1421140.555
2015St. Louis1411141.553
2008Minnesota1411150.551
2008Baltimore1411150.551
2014Arizona1401160.547
2012NY Giants1401160.547
2010Tennessee1401160.547
2010Houston1401160.547
2008Houston1401160.547
2008Cincinnati1401160.547
2008Cleveland1401160.547
2005Miami1401160.547

—Ian Allan