Vernon Davis really pulled a face plant last year, didn’t he? I was looking at the numbers, and he graded out as the biggest bust among tight ends in this century. An amazing dropoff.
I chose to look at per-game numbers rather than straight cumulative stats, and I tossed out guys who didn’t start more than 10 games. I didn’t want to get into looking at guys who maybe only played a game or two before getting hurt and whatnot. I looked only at guys who started at least 10 games, then game back the next year and started 10-plus games again.
There were over 300 tight ends in the study. I went back to 2000 – all of the tight ends this century.
And of this group, Vernon Davis declined more than anyone. He was a disaster as a scorer. In the 2013 season, he caught 13 TDs in 15 games (2nd-best among all tight ends). Last year he slipped to 2 TDs in 14 games. The only tight end who was remotely similar in decline was Marcedes Lewis a few years back, who dropped from 10 TDs to none for Jacksonville.
Only one other tight end has declined by over a half touchdown per game. That would be Visanthe Shiancoe, who fell off from 11 TDs to 2 TDs five years ago.
BIGGEST TOUCHDOWN DECLINES BY TIGHT ENDS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Years | Player | Bef TD | Aft TD | Decline |
13-14 | Vernon Davis | .87 | .14 | .72 |
10-11 | Marcedes Lewis | .63 | .00 | .63 |
09-10 | Visanthe Shiancoe | .69 | .13 | .56 |
12-13 | Heath Miller | .56 | .07 | .48 |
01-02 | David Sloan | .47 | .00 | .47 |
10-11 | Antonio Gates | 1.00 | .54 | .46 |
07-08 | Chris Cooley | .52 | .06 | .46 |
04-05 | Mark Campbell | .42 | .00 | .42 |
07-08 | Leonard Pope | .38 | .00 | .38 |
07-08 | Benjamin Watson | .55 | .17 | .38 |
13-14 | Jimmy Graham | 1.00 | .63 | .38 |
11-12 | Jermichael Finley | .50 | .13 | .37 |
09-10 | John Carlson | .44 | .07 | .37 |
11-12 | Tony Scheffler | .42 | .07 | .36 |
09-10 | Vernon Davis | .81 | .46 | .35 |
04-05 | Bubba Franks | .44 | .10 | .34 |
10-11 | Zach Miller | .33 | .00 | .33 |
07-08 | Dallas Clark | .73 | .40 | .33 |
02-03 | Christian Fauria | .46 | .13 | .33 |
04-05 | Tony Gonzalez | .44 | .13 | .31 |
11-12 | Ed Dickson | .31 | .00 | .31 |
13-14 | Brent Celek | .38 | .06 | .31 |
05-06 | Jason Witten | .38 | .06 | .31 |
08-09 | Anthony Fasano | .44 | .14 | .29 |
13-14 | Garrett Graham | .38 | .09 | .29 |
07-08 | Alge Crumpler | .36 | .07 | .29 |
Davis also graded out as the worst of the worst in receiving yardage. He fell off by 39 yards per game. In the last 15 seasons, only two other tight ends have cracked the 25-yard (per game) mark – Zach Miller and Brent Celek.
BIGGEST YARDS DECLINES BY TIGHT ENDS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Years | Player | Bef Yds | Aft Yds | Decline |
13-14 | Vernon Davis | 56.7 | 17.5 | 39.2 |
10-11 | Zach Miller | 45.7 | 15.5 | 30.1 |
09-10 | Brent Celek | 60.7 | 34.1 | 26.6 |
13-14 | Garrett Graham | 41.9 | 17.9 | 24.0 |
11-12 | Antonio Gates | 59.8 | 35.9 | 24.0 |
13-14 | Brandon Pettigrew | 29.7 | 7.0 | 22.7 |
04-05 | Tony Gonzalez | 78.6 | 56.6 | 22.1 |
08-09 | Tony Scheffler | 49.6 | 27.7 | 21.9 |
00-01 | Kyle Brady | 45.6 | 24.1 | 21.4 |
08-09 | Robert Royal | 30.8 | 10.3 | 20.5 |
13-14 | Jimmy Graham | 75.9 | 55.6 | 20.4 |
05-06 | Ben Troupe | 35.3 | 15.0 | 20.3 |
01-02 | David Sloan | 27.3 | 7.9 | 19.3 |
01-02 | Frank Wycheck | 42.0 | 23.1 | 18.9 |
13-14 | Jordan Cameron | 61.1 | 42.4 | 18.7 |
10-11 | Antonio Gates | 78.2 | 59.8 | 18.4 |
07-08 | Donald Lee | 38.3 | 20.2 | 18.1 |
00-01 | Tony Gonzalez | 75.2 | 57.3 | 17.9 |
05-06 | Jeremy Shockey | 59.4 | 41.5 | 17.9 |
00-01 | Chad Lewis | 45.9 | 28.1 | 17.8 |
10-11 | Todd Heap | 46.1 | 28.3 | 17.8 |
12-13 | Brandon Myers | 50.4 | 32.6 | 17.8 |
07-08 | Benjamin Watson | 34.5 | 16.9 | 17.5 |
07-08 | Antonio Gates | 61.5 | 44.0 | 17.5 |
06-07 | Alge Crumpler | 48.8 | 31.7 | 17.0 |
Davis is in a contract year, so he has plenty of incentive to turn things around. On the flip side, he’s also 31 years old, which is long in the tooth for a tight end.
—Ian Allan