Heading into the NFL Draft, we've been taking look at the recent history of skill-position players selected in the first, second and third rounds. Last week we did running backs, this week wide receivers.
For each round, I've been offering opinions on what the odds are of that selection being a great NFL player or not, based on how that position has fared since 2000. Clearly, there are opinions at play here, as we can disagree as to whether someone like Santonio Holmes, for example, should be considered great or not.
But based on those opinions, I figure the odds of first-round wide receivers turning out great are about 1 in 4. Looking at the second round, I count 12 out of 55 -- roughly 20 percent.
It's tricky. Chris Chambers had just one 1,000-yard season, but I deemed him "great." Greg Jennings and Deion Branch -- great wideouts or just beneficiaries of great quarterbacks? A case can be made for Jerry Porter, who I voted no on.
I gave question marks to 11 players, all drafted since 2012. Seems a little early to say on Justin Hunter and Brian Quick, and definitely on the 2014 players. If most of those players end up hitting, maybe we get up to 25 percent on second-rounders, too.
Wide receivers drafted in the second round since 2000 are shown below, sorted by rookie year yardage. Note that about half of the hits put up respectable yardage right away.
SECOND-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2000-2014 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pick | Player | Team | Rec | Yards | TDs | Great? |
2003 | 54 | Anquan Boldin | Cardinals | 101 | 1377 | 8 | Yes |
2008 | 42 | Eddie Royal | Broncos | 91 | 980 | 5 | No |
2008 | 49 | DeSean Jackson | Eagles | 62 | 912 | 4 | Yes |
2001 | 52 | Chris Chambers | Dolphins | 48 | 883 | 7 | Yes |
2014 | 42 | Jordan Matthews | Eagles | 67 | 872 | 8 | ? |
2011 | 58 | Torrey Smith | Ravens | 50 | 841 | 7 | Yes |
2014 | 63 | Jarvis Landry | Dolphins | 84 | 758 | 5 | ? |
2004 | 62 | Keary Colbert | Panthers | 47 | 754 | 5 | No |
2002 | 63 | Antonio Bryant | Cowboys | 44 | 733 | 6 | No |
2011 | 59 | Greg Little | Browns | 61 | 709 | 2 | No |
2008 | 33 | Donnie Avery | Rams | 53 | 674 | 3 | No |
2006 | 52 | Greg Jennings | Packers | 45 | 632 | 3 | Yes |
2009 | 50 | Mohamed Massaquoi | Browns | 34 | 624 | 3 | No |
2011 | 44 | Titus Young | Lions | 48 | 607 | 6 | No |
2013 | 41 | Robert Woods | Bills | 40 | 587 | 3 | ? |
2005 | 35 | Reggie Brown | Eagles | 43 | 571 | 4 | No |
2014 | 61 | Allen Robinson | Jaguars | 48 | 548 | 2 | ? |
2013 | 59 | Aaron Dobson | Patriots | 37 | 519 | 4 | ? |
2002 | 36 | Josh Reed | Bills | 37 | 514 | 2 | No |
2002 | 62 | Antwaan Randle El | Steelers | 47 | 489 | 3 | No |
2002 | 65 | Deion Branch | Patriots | 43 | 489 | 2 | Yes |
2002 | 33 | Jabar Gaffney | Texans | 41 | 483 | 1 | No |
2014 | 53 | Davante Adams | Packers | 38 | 446 | 3 | ? |
2001 | 33 | Quincy Morgan | Browns | 30 | 432 | 2 | No |
2014 | 39 | Marqise Lee | Jaguars | 37 | 422 | 1 | ? |
2000 | 32 | Dennis Northcutt | Browns | 39 | 422 | 0 | No |
2002 | 47 | Andre Davis | Browns | 37 | 420 | 7 | No |
2007 | 44 | Sidney Rice | Vikings | 31 | 396 | 4 | No |
2010 | 39 | Arrelious Benn | Buccaneers | 25 | 395 | 2 | No |
2004 | 54 | Darius Watts | Broncos | 31 | 385 | 1 | No |
2011 | 64 | Randall Cobb | Packers | 25 | 375 | 1 | Yes |
2012 | 45 | Alshon Jeffery | Bears | 24 | 367 | 3 | Yes |
2008 | 36 | Jordy Nelson | Packers | 33 | 366 | 2 | Yes |
2013 | 34 | Justin Hunter | Titans | 18 | 354 | 4 | ? |
2001 | 36 | Chad Johnson | Bengals | 28 | 329 | 1 | Yes |
2012 | 54 | Ryan Broyles | Lions | 22 | 310 | 2 | No |
2012 | 63 | Rueben Randle | Giants | 19 | 298 | 3 | No |
2003 | 60 | Tyrone Calico | Titans | 18 | 297 | 4 | No |
2014 | 45 | Paul Richardson | Seahawks | 29 | 271 | 1 | ? |
2012 | 43 | Stephen Hill | Jets | 21 | 252 | 3 | No |
2005 | 39 | Mark Bradley | Bears | 18 | 230 | 0 | No |
2010 | 60 | Golden Tate | Seahawks | 21 | 227 | 0 | Yes |
2010 | 36 | Dexter McCluster | Kansas City | 21 | 209 | 1 | No |
2003 | 45 | Bethel Johnson | Patriots | 16 | 209 | 3 | No |
2002 | 48 | Reche Caldwell | Chargers | 22 | 208 | 3 | No |
2000 | 36 | Todd Pinkston | Eagles | 10 | 181 | 0 | No |
2012 | 33 | Brian Quick | Rams | 11 | 156 | 2 | ? |
2006 | 36 | Chad Jackson | Patriots | 13 | 152 | 3 | No |
2005 | 55 | Roscoe Parrish | Bills | 15 | 148 | 1 | No |
2008 | 34 | Devin Thomas | Washington | 15 | 120 | 1 | No |
2009 | 36 | Brian Robiskie | Browns | 7 | 106 | 0 | No |
2008 | 41 | James Hardy | Bills | 9 | 87 | 2 | No |
2007 | 45 | Dwayne Jarrett | Panthers | 6 | 73 | 0 | No |
2008 | 53 | Limas Sweed | Steelers | 6 | 64 | 0 | No |
2007 | 51 | Steve Smith | Giants | 8 | 63 | 0 | No |
2005 | 61 | Vincent Jackson | Chargers | 3 | 59 | 0 | Yes |
2003 | 44 | Taylor Jacobs | Washington | 3 | 37 | 1 | No |
2002 | 46 | Tim Carter | Giants | 2 | 37 | 0 | No |
2005 | 58 | Terrence Murphy | Packers | 5 | 36 | 0 | No |
2006 | 44 | Sinorice Moss | Giants | 5 | 25 | 0 | No |
2014 | 56 | Cody Latimer | Broncos | 2 | 23 | 0 | ? |
2008 | 51 | Malcolm Kelly | Washington | 3 | 18 | 0 | No |
2000 | 47 | Jerry Porter | Raiders | 1 | 6 | 0 | No |
2008 | 46 | Jerome Simpson | Bengals | 1 | 2 | 0 | No |
2004 | 50 | Devery Henderson | Saints | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2001 | 41 | Robert Ferguson | Packers | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
--Andy Richardson