Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. How often can we expect the Lions to use Ameer Abdullah at the goal line? Are catch projections for running backs too conservative? And should a quarterback go No. 1 overall in a league giving 6 points for touchdown passes?
Question 1
Really appreciate your work, it has helped me greatly in numerous leagues over the years. Had two questions I wanted to run past you. First, was curious if you have ever looked at the short-yardage track record for rookie running backs in college to see if there was any correlation to their short-yardage usage in the pros. For example, it might be interesting to see Ameer Abdullah's short-yardage history at Nebraska as a barometer for how Detroit may (or may not) use him in goal line situations (particularly if Joique Bell's injury lingers longer than expected). Second, realize there is probably no boilerplate algorithm to customize cheat sheets for keeper leagues (given nuances among leagues), but was wondering if you have ever looked into adding something like that? I'm over-simplifying it, but I imagine one would need to try to calculate a player's "present value" by projecting future performance 3-5 years out and the degree of accuracy would obviously diminish substantially the further out you forecast. Just curious if you had any thoughts on modeling that out?
Timothy Lynch (New York, NY)
For rookie running backs and short-yardage, I don’t have access to the kind of detailed numbers that we have in pros. For NFL, I have access to the result of every short-yardage running play from the last dozen or so years; you can start playing around with success rates and totals, providing insight into teams and individuals. For the rookies, it’s less scientific. Basically, you get to see the guys handle a few short-yardage and goal-line carries in college, and try to decide how he might project into the pros. With Abdullah, he’s a small, quick guy (rather than a pile pusher) so I would be surprised if he figured prominently in their short-yardage packages. When they had Reggie Bush, who at one time was a smaller, quicker Abdullah-type back, they would pull him at the goal line. So I believe it will be Joique Bell who bangs in most of the 1-yard touchdowns for the Lions. As far as the dynasty league rankings, I don’t think it’s possible to create a scientific model. The math gets too complex, with players have wildly different lengths of careers. Things can change pretty quickly, and the leagues are all different. Some of the keeper-league guys are looking to protect players for a year or two. That’s the mindset. In a true dynasty format, it’s more like you get to keep your entire roster if you want. We’re trying to judge Blake Bortles against Derek Carr, and they might both play for 6-7 different head coaches in the next 10 years. So best to do the dynasty/keeper rankings by hand, I think. I updated those rankings and put them in the Thursday release of the newsletter yesterday. It’s got the top 50-70 at QB, RB, WR and TE.
Question 2
I play in a PPR league, with scoring that is RB friendly. Pass catching RBs are gold. In reviewing your cheat sheets, I expected some greater separation in RB rankings, for PPR vs. Yardage leagues. For example, despite all the red flags, I would have expected Matt Forte to move from 13th in Yardage Leagues to the Top 8-10 in PPR. You've got him catching 37 balls moving up only one spot, from 13 to 12. Upon further review of your projected stats, I see that you've only got 7 RBs projected to catch 40+ passes and with the exception of Bell and Forsett, the remaining 5 are RBBC and/or pass catching specialists. Your projection of 7 RBs with 40+ catches compares with 16, 20, and 16 RBs that caught 40+ balls over the past three NFL seasons. Are you being a little stingy on RB reception projections for guys like Murray, Lacy, Charles, and Forte, all for whom you are projecting less than 40 catches?
STEVEN MATH (Austin, TX)
Good topic, and I welcome the opportunity to kick it around a little. There are a few factors at play here, I think. Most notably, I’m projecting not only receptions but the likelihood that the guy will even be on the field. At the running back position, I don’t think it’s safe to assume any featured tailback will stay healthy for the entire season. That’s hard to do. So most of those guys are projected to play about 14 games. So that’s about a 12-percent decline right there. I also tend to be conservative with my projections. It’s really hard for a running back to catch 70-plus passes, so while it happens every year, and you’ll catch me speculating in written word that C.J. Spiller or Justin Forsett should catch 70-80 passes if they stay healthy, when it’s time to actually pen in the numbers, it’s rare to see that kind of projection. When I ultimately have to divide up the passing production for each team, I also must assign receptions to the other players on those teams. The Saints also have Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson in their backfield, and the Ravens will also utilize Lorenzo Taliaferro and Javorius Allen. Additionally, there’s a trickle down from also being conservative with the quarterbacks. Maybe Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck throws 46 TD passes this year, but I would never project them that high. Getting up to about 40 is my limit. Right now, I’ve got the Packers and Colts in the range of 37-39 TD passes, out of respect for the possibility the offense is hit with injuries or whatever. It’s the same way with yards. The projections for the really good teams tend to get pulled down some, and the projections for the really bad offenses tend to get overdone a little (to cover the possibility that the team is better than we all realize). Those are the kind of factors that are at play. But mostly it’s the reality that running backs get hurt. If you want to assume that they’ll all be healthy and in featured roles for all 16 games, then I have 27 that would project to catch 40-plus passes this year. This same kind of reasoning applies to touchdowns. There will be more players scoring 10-plus touchdowns than I am projecting.
| RB CATCHES (16 GAMES) | ||
|---|---|---|
| BAL | Justin Forsett | 65 |
| PIT | LeVeon Bell | 60 |
| NO | C.J. Spiller | 58 |
| SD | Danny Woodhead | 57 |
| BAL | Lorenzo Taliaferro | 54 |
| NO | Khiry Robinson | 50 |
| CIN | Giovani Bernard | 49 |
| ARI | Andre Ellington | 49 |
| ARI | Chris Johnson | 48 |
| KC | Knile Davis | 48 |
| IND | Dan Herron | 47 |
| CHI | Jacquizz Rodgers | 47 |
| SD | Branden Oliver | 47 |
| MIA | Damien Williams | 46 |
| NE | James White | 46 |
| NE | Travaris Cadet | 46 |
| MIN | Jerick McKinnon | 45 |
| NYG | Shane Vereen | 45 |
| DEN | Ronnie Hillman | 45 |
| KC | Jamaal Charles | 43 |
| PIT | DeAngelo Williams | 42 |
| HOU | Arian Foster | 42 |
| OAK | Roy Helu Jr. | 42 |
| CHI | Matt Forte | 41 |
| GB | Eddie Lacy | 41 |
| DEN | C.J. Anderson | 40 |
| GB | James Starks | 40 |
Question 3
In a 10-team touchdown with only with small bonuses for yardage. They score 6 points for all touchdowns. I have 1st pick in draft, do I go Luck or Rodgers?
Karl Scheel (Ingleside, IL)
Agreed. Those are the top 2 guys on my board in a TD-only format (with 6 points for all touchdowns). In your league, you could wait and get some pretty decent quarterbacks cheap. I’m thinking guys like Philip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Cam Newton. But when you look at how much better Luck and Rodgers should be, and compare that to the stat spread at the other positions, and it’s an easy call. Both of those guys might hit 40-plus touchdowns, and that’s what you need. I don’t see a big difference between the two (I’ve got Rodgers a little higher) so if the franchise selected 2nd would like to throw me a seventh-round pick, I would be willing to move down a spot.
Question 4
In a 12-team standard with 1 flex. The custom rankings have Rodgers/Luck at 1/2, which was expected. I think QB is deep enough to pass on that position, so that pushes a guy like J.Hill way up the board. I thought CJ Anderson and Lynch would have been higher than Hill. Essentially, is Hill a guy worth taking at 5 or 6 overall if you were picking at those spots? Anything lower makes it a much easier choice, but in that 5/6 and even 7 you see him as a safe choice? I do like the WR's in a similar order to you, but that high end WR group is also pretty deep. Knowing I'd be able to get 1 of them by mid 2nd round makes me lean toward a RB, if it makes sense in R1. Also, are your current rankings of Gronkowski / Edelman based on Brady being out for the four games? I think this is the only place I've not seen Gronk ranked in the first round and was wondering your rationale behind that.
Bill Petilli (Larchmont, NY)
I like Hill, but I sense you can get him in the early-to-mid second round. Might be better to select Julio Jones or Antonio Brown in the first round, then get Hill in the second. As for the Patriots, right now I’m kind of working off Brady probably missing about two games. I’m not downgrading Gronkowski or Edelman because of Brady. I don’t think they’d be hurt a ton. Neither though, has been particularly durable. They’re more likely to miss 1-3 games than other players at their position. With Gronkowski, he’s got his position working against him. Tight ends are like quarterbacks. Everyone is drafting only one starter, so there tends to be plenty to go around. You can get an acceptable level of tight end production pretty cheaply. That’s not the case at running back or wide receiver.
Question 5
12-team standard. I have the #1 pick and it has been giving me fits. I know Charles takes the top spot on the cheat sheet but could you elaborate a little further on your rankings for the tob RBs? Am concerned that Charles is aging and Davis could cut into his workload; Lacy is on a team with so many offensive weapons that his production will be more variable from week to week. Peterson has a big hump to overcome after not playing for a year. Bell is arguably the best back but you are hamstrung the first two weeks out of the year. Can Bell be that much more productive later in the season to make up for it? For whatever reason I am torn between Charles and Bell. Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks as always.
Michael Massad (Dallas, TX)
With LeVeon Bell, if you select him, I think it’s safe to assume you’ll be able to bolster that pick by selecting DeAngelo Williams in the late rounds. Williams was the 143rd and 165th pick in the Fanex drafts a few weeks ago. That’s not that big of a drawback. If you select Jamaal Charles, you need to do the same thing with Knile Davis, and he needs to be selected earlier. Davis was the first true handcuff selected in those Fanex drafts, going 76th and 121st. For handcuff purposes, I actually like Eddie Lacy better than either Bell or Charles. With him, there’s a clean handcuff behind him (James Starks), and Starks is going even cheaper than Williams in drafts. It’s a four-man mix when you toss in Adrian Peterson, and I don’t see much difference between those guys. Peterson is an older back and isn’t used as much in the passing game as those others. I don’t think any of the four a slam dunks durability wise.
Question 6
Does Luck have significantly more dynasty value than Rodgers? I may be biased (as a Pack fan) but I still think Aaron has many years left?
Garrett Seymour (Fitchburg, WI)
They are both set up to be elite, stat monsters for the upcoming years, but Luck is 6 years younger. That’s the difference.
Question 7
My league is entering it's 15th season and I have 6 league titles with your help. My league gets to keep four players from the prior season (one has to be a rookie). The cost is the round that player was drafted the prior year. We can only keep a player twice before we lose that player. Please help me select four players (one being a rookie from last season). Eddie Lacy (3rd; previously kept once), Antonio Brown (4th, previously kept once), Mark Ingram (9th), Sammy Watkins (9th), Alshon Jeffery (12th, previously kept once), Odell Beckham Jr. (19th), Travis Kelce (19th), Martavis Bryant (19th).
John Evans (Pensacola, FL)
Beckham is an easy first, at the cost of just a 19th. If we’re playing with tight ends, I will also keep Kelce (also at an insanely low price). I think this is a year that you go for it – you’re trying to win the title – so I would keep Lacy and Brown, even though they’re not great values. But they’re good values (1st-round guys that you’re getting in the third and fourth round). Tough to pass up Alshon Jeffery; he’s probably a fifth-round pick, and you could have him for a 12th. But you can’t keep everyone.
Question 8
Ian, just a suggestion. Perhaps in the future you could provide the players overall top 300 ranking in parenthesis just to the right of the players positional ranking. That would help us who like to draft with a single one page cheat sheet. In addition it would possibly allow you to delete the overall top 30 from the one page cheat sheet. Might sound like overkill, but I believe it would be helpful throughout the entire draft. Some may say that the TOP OVERALL 300 is not needed/useful after the TOP OVERALL 50 are drafted. I disagree. Having the overall 300 rank in parenthesis allows me to make a more prudent and quick draft decision; not only through the first 5+ rounds but also late in the draft. Those that want the overall rankings still have the top 300 if they want to juggle multiple cheat sheets. And with the space saved it would allow deeper ranks at each position and/or a slightly larger font. Just a suggestion. Thank you as always for you cogent and comprehensive analysis.
SCOTT STEPHENSON (Maineville, OH)
That’s a clever idea. It would be nice to open up a little room by eliminating the overall top 35. But I’m nervous about calling one guy the 93rd player or the 123rd player. Rankings are skewed by scoring system and league parameters. On our regular one-page Cheat Sheet, for example, how would you handle the issue of tight ends appearing both as tight ends and also in the receiver category (mixed in with wide receivers). Most people have tight ends separate, but for those who have them blended together, it’s important to see that combo list. I’m in one league that doesn’t use defenses. Some leagues start three wide receivers and a flex (which is probably another wide receiver if its PPR), while others stick to just two receivers. All of these factors can have a big impact on an overall board. So while it sounds good, it would be hard to implement.
Question 9
I was wondering if you could come out with a ranking for each of the teams offensive lines like you did last year. I thought it was extremely helpful in making my final decision when I was on-the-fence between two players I would draft. Drafts are starting up soon and I'd like to see your expert opinion. By the way, I have loved reading your fantasy football material the past 3-4 years. Great stuff and keep it coming. I appreciate the time and passion you put into it. Good luck this year!
phillip podret (Metairie, LA)
Thanks, Phillip. Andy Richardson is tracking and grading the offensive lines. He had a complete overview in the magazine, and he’ll be doing updates throughout the preseason. He posted one earlier today, with a new 1 thru 32, as well as a best-to-worst list of the right tackles.
Question 10
I have the 5th pick in a 14 team league (non ppr). I'm torn between L. Bell or A. Brown, I know both will be available at this pick. Do I stay traditional and take L. Bell with the 2 game suspension or do I take A. Brown aka Mister reliable? I've always taken a RB first, but missed the playoffs the last two season. So I'm open to turning over a new leaf.
DAVID MARCUS (GLENMOORE, PA)
I think they’re both solid picks. On my overall board, I’ve got Bell 4th and Brown 7th. In a 14-team league, I think you’ll probably have more luck finding receivers in the third, fourth and fifth rounds.
Question 11
In a snake style draft (8 team league), what draft position do you prefer to be in? Is it better to be 1st in odd numbered rounds and last in even numbered round, last in odd numbered rounds and 1st in even rounds, or somewhere close to the middle in every round? Our league is a little unusual in that we don't actually pick a draft order. We pick the order to select a draft position, and it seems like most years, 3 of the first 4 draft positions taken are the #3-#5 positions. Our league has a salary cap, but the dollar values are set prior to the draft. I think some owners shy away from the #1 overall pick because they are leery of tying up 33-35% of the salary cap on one player (elite RBs are usually in that price range).
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
Normally, I would like to have that No. 1 pick. Each odd-numbered round is more valuable than the even-numbered round that follows it. That’s logical. Those eight players are all getting picked before the eight in that following round. But this year is a little different in that if you drop down a few spots, you might still get your No. 1 overall player – plus the advantage of picking before a few guys in the second round.