I haven’t checked in with any Strength of Schedule stuff in a while, as pointed out to me by a reader in an email. So let me offer up a revised version. Back in the spring and before training camps, such charts were based on how opponents fared last year. But now that a bunch of players have moved around and been drafted, it’s clear a lot of these teams are different. So let’s take another look at the schedules, based not how how defenses played last year, but on how we think they will play in 2015.
I will start by defining the defenses. And for this attempt, I will focus on points allowed by defense. (That is, I’m trying to calculate which teams will play teams that will allow the most total points.).
In this chart, it shows how many points were allowed by defenses last year (“2014”), and it also shows how many we’re guessing they will allow this year.
Seattle is No. 1 on both counts. The Seahawks allowed a league-low 15.9 points per game, on average, last year. We’ve got them at 18.8 this year. Some may wonder why we have the Seahawks allowing 3 more points per game. Well, things change. Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are hurt, and Kam Chancellor is sitting out, trying to get a new contract. More notably, they don’t have as much depth as they have in the past. In the preseason game against Denver, I don’t think the Broncos punted in the first half – ran it up and down the field on them.
It’s not an easy chart to compile. There are no defenses, at least in my opinion, that scream out as being the leakiest sieves in the league. I went with Washington, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Oakland and Dallas in my bottom 5, but I would beat that at least one of those defenses surprises us and finishes above-average. Similarly, probably one of those defenses in the top 5 will underachieve and be an below-average group.
Whatever. Adjust the numbers anyway you want. This is how I have them.
| DEFENSES / POINTS ALLOWED | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2014 | Rk | Proj | Rk |
| Seattle | 15.9 | 1 | 18.8 | 1 |
| Buffalo | 18.1 | 4 | 19.2 | 2 |
| Denver | 22.1 | 16T | 19.4 | 3 |
| Baltimore | 18.9 | 6 | 19.7 | 4 |
| Detroit | 17.6 | 3 | 19.8 | 5 |
| Houston | 19.2 | 7 | 19.9 | 6 |
| NY Jets | 25.1 | 24 | 20.1 | 7 |
| Miami | 23.3 | 20 | 20.6 | 8 |
| Kansas City | 17.6 | 2 | 20.8 | 9 |
| St. Louis | 22.1 | 16T | 20.9 | 10 |
| Carolina | 23.4 | 21 | 21.0 | 11 |
| Minnesota | 21.4 | 11 | 21.2 | 12 |
| New England | 19.6 | 8 | 21.3 | 13 |
| Cleveland | 21.1 | 9 | 21.4 | 14 |
| Arizona | 18.7 | 5 | 21.7 | 15 |
| Green Bay | 21.8 | 13T | 21.8 | 16 |
| San Diego | 21.8 | 13T | 22.0 | 17 |
| Cincinnati | 21.5 | 12 | 22.8 | 18 |
| San Francisco | 21.3 | 10 | 22.9 | 19 |
| Indianapolis | 23.1 | 19 | 23.0 | 20 |
| New Orleans | 26.5 | 28 | 23.1 | 21 |
| Philadelphia | 25.0 | 22T | 23.2 | 22 |
| Jacksonville | 25.8 | 26 | 23.8 | 23 |
| Atlanta | 26.1 | 27 | 24.2 | 24 |
| Tennessee | 27.4 | 29T | 24.3 | 25 |
| NY Giants | 25.0 | 22T | 24.4 | 26 |
| Dallas | 22.0 | 15 | 24.5 | 27 |
| Oakland | 28.3 | 32 | 24.6 | 28 |
| Chicago | 27.6 | 31 | 25.1 | 29 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.0 | 18 | 25.2 | 30 |
| Tampa Bay | 25.6 | 25 | 25.3 | 31 |
| Washington | 27.4 | 29T | 25.5 | 32 |
Once we’ve agreed on some kind of order for the defenses, we can then plug those numbers in the 256-game NFL schedule. Then we add up and average the numbers, and it tells us which teams project to play the easiest (and hardest schedules).
I’ve done that, and found that the difference between 2014 stats and 2015 projections isn’t as severe as I thought.
Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay still project to play the league’s easiest schedules, while Cincinnati and Bengals still project to play the hardest.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE / DEFENSES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Actual | Rk | Proj | Rk |
| Carolina | 24.3 | 2 | 23.4 | 1 |
| Atlanta | 24.3 | 3 | 23.2 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 1 | 23.2 | 3 |
| New Orleans | 23.8 | 5 | 23.2 | 4 |
| NY Giants | 23.7 | 8 | 22.8 | 5 |
| Philadelphia | 23.3 | 12 | 22.8 | 6 |
| Washington | 23.8 | 4 | 22.8 | 7 |
| Dallas | 23.7 | 6 | 22.6 | 8 |
| Houston | 23.7 | 7 | 22.5 | 9 |
| NY Jets | 22.9 | 15 | 22.3 | 10 |
| Buffalo | 23.1 | 13 | 22.3 | 11 |
| Denver | 21.9 | 21 | 22.3 | 12 |
| Indianapolis | 23.6 | 9 | 22.2 | 13 |
| St. Louis | 21.1 | 29 | 22.2 | 14 |
| Baltimore | 21.7 | 23 | 22.1 | 15 |
| Tennessee | 23.3 | 10 | 22.1 | 16 |
| Detroit | 22.5 | 16 | 22.1 | 17 |
| Seattle | 21.4 | 27 | 22.1 | 18 |
| Minnesota | 22.0 | 20 | 22.1 | 19 |
| New England | 23.3 | 11 | 22.1 | 20 |
| Miami | 22.5 | 17 | 22.0 | 21 |
| San Diego | 22.4 | 18 | 21.9 | 22 |
| Jacksonville | 23.0 | 14 | 21.9 | 23 |
| Cleveland | 21.7 | 24 | 21.9 | 24 |
| Green Bay | 21.6 | 25 | 21.8 | 25 |
| Arizona | 21.4 | 26 | 21.8 | 26 |
| San Francisco | 21.1 | 30 | 21.8 | 27 |
| Kansas City | 22.1 | 19 | 21.8 | 28 |
| Chicago | 21.4 | 28 | 21.7 | 29 |
| Oakland | 21.8 | 22 | 21.6 | 30 |
| Pittsburgh | 20.8 | 31 | 21.5 | 31 |
| Cincinnati | 20.7 | 32 | 21.4 | 32 |
The biggest movers are the Rams. They had the 4th-hardest schedule using the 2014 numbers, but move up to 14th using the processed figures.
Three other teams move up at least 8 spots (that is, their schedules get easier). Denver goes from 21st to 12th, Seattle goes from 18th to 9th, and Baltimore moves from 23rd to 15th.
Four teams have schedules that get 8-9 spots harder. Kansas City (19th to 28th), Jacksonville (14th to 23rd), New England (11th to 20th) and Oakland (22nd to 30th).
—Ian Allan