Defenses, I think, can be a hard position to get a handle on. Everyone (for the most part) agrees that Buffalo and Seattle should be up there at the top. But what defenses should also be in the top 5? And if you like a defense like Houston, Denver or Miami, when do you make your move in a draft?
We can use the results from the Fantasy Index Open to get some clarity. That contest features 192 competitors (each submitting a top 20 at each position), so there’s enough data there that the averages become meaningful. If a couple of guys rank the Chargers way too high (or way too low) that’s not going to throw things off.
The Bills and Seahawks, as I expected, finished in the top 2 spots. But they weren’t as dominant as I expected. Buffalo collected 92 percent of the maximum scoring, 2nd-lowest among the top players at each position. The No. 1 was more clear at quarterback, wide receiver, tight end and kicker.
With Seattle, it graded out at only 86 percent. All of the other positions had 2-3 players that scored higher. On the one hand, I’m surprised. I thought folks would flock to the Seahawks by habit. But at the same time, it makes a lot of sense. This scoring system is built mainly around sacks and turnovers, and when you try to itemize the projections, it’s easy to see Seattle hardly even making the top 10 (it’s not a great pass rush team).
Scoring system for this contest, by the way, is 6 points for touchdowns (including special teams), 2 points for takeaways and 1 point for sacks. You also get 2 points for safeties, but who cares?
The Bills and Seahawks didn’t grab as many of the first-place vote as I expected; 76 for Buffalo, and 46 for Seattle. The Rams and Texans finished 3rd and 4th, and they got 27 and 16 first-place votes. Then a smattering of interest in various teams, with the Jets, Dolphins and Kansas City each getting 5-9 first-place votes.
Note that in this poll, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, Denver and Green Bay finished in the second five (6th to 10th). If you want to select one of those defenses, you can probably get it in the next-to-last round in a lot of drafts. One or two of those defenses, in fact, might make it to the last round.
Carolina, Baltimore, New England and Arizona, those defenses didn’t even make the top 10.
Six defenses didn’t even appear on 10 percent of the ballots. That is, 90 percent of people don’t think they’ll be in the top 20 – Washington, Tennessee, Oakland, Chicago, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Six other defenses weren’t in the top 20 in over half of the ballots (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, San Francisco, San Diego, Pittsburgh and the Giants).
Notice that three of those weak defenses are in the AFC South, and three are in the NFC South. Those two divisions play each other this year, so Carolina and Indianapolis will be playing nine of their 16 games against defenses that everybody thinks are pretty bad.
The Fantasy Index Open competition, by the way, is closed. Entries had to be submitted before the start of the preseason games. So everybody’s locked in (no subbing for guys like Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin is allowed). We’ll set aside the entries for now, and we’ll come back and score them in January.
The winner of this competition gets a giant trophy from the team at Affordable Trophies. It’s nice of them to help out with this endeavor again, and if anyone’s looking for a trophy for their regular fantasy league, I encourage you to give that company a try.
Here are the results for the defenses and special teams, with percentage share of the votes. If a team got all of the first-place votes, it would appear at 100 percent. If it was 10th on every ballot, that would be 50 percent. If it ranked 20th in everyone’s eyes, it would be at 5 percent. (So when a defense like Detroit scores at 19 percent, that means it’s about 17th, on average.)
| FANTASY INDEX OPEN (Defenses) | |
|---|---|
| Team | Pct |
| Buffalo | 91.8% |
| Seattle | 86.0% |
| St. Louis | 83.3% |
| Houston | 75.6% |
| NY Jets | 65.4% |
| Kansas City | 59.3% |
| Green Bay | 58.6% |
| Miami | 58.4% |
| Philadelphia | 57.1% |
| Denver | 56.5% |
| Carolina | 49.8% |
| Baltimore | 47.1% |
| New England | 43.7% |
| Arizona | 43.0% |
| Minnesota | 31.4% |
| Cincinnati | 25.2% |
| Indianapolis | 21.0% |
| Detroit | 19.1% |
| Dallas | 18.3% |
| Cleveland | 13.7% |
| Pittsburgh | 10.8% |
| San Diego | 8.7% |
| NY Giants | 8.0% |
| San Francisco | 4.9% |
| Jacksonville | 2.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 2.6% |
| Atlanta | 2.3% |
| New Orleans | 1.8% |
| Chicago | 1.6% |
| Oakland | 1.0% |
| Tennessee | 0.9% |
| Washington | 0.7% |
—Ian Allan