Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What the heck is wrong with Matt Ryan? What do we make of struggling Eddie Lacy? And does Mike Evans or Brandin Cooks have a better chance of turning things around?
Question 1
Alright, Ian, isn't it time to kick Matt Ryan to the curb for this season? The problem with Ryan is simple -- aside from Julio, his receivers are awful! No QB can be separated from the quality of his receivers (see: Rodgers w/out Nelson, Brady w/out Gronk last year, Brees w/out Graham), and Ryan isn't quite in the top tier anyway. Add in Quinn's propensity for red-zone running, and Ryan is a fantasy dud. I started Bortles over him last week, and I would start Fitzpatrick this week if I didn't already start Ivory and Marshall. (That said, I'm holding onto Ryan anyway in case he turns it around, but I'm obviously not counting on it.)
Craig Rinne (Delray Beach, FL)
I don’t think it’s a receiver issue. Julio Jones might be the best wide receiver in the league right now. Devonta Freeman has been really good as a pass-catching running back. I think they’re fine with their second and third receivers (Leonard Hankerson and Roddy White). Andy Dalton is having a big year; I don’t think it’s because Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu are better than Hankerson-White. Similarly, I don’t think Philip Rivers beats them because of Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd. Hankerson and White are fine. Tight ends aren’t great, but they’re good enough. The issue, I think, is the structure of the offense. They’re running the ball a lot more, and a lot more effective. And Ryan simply isn’t playing that well either.
Question 2
Why isn’t Ladarius Green on this week’s redrafter? Gates is 5th but Green has been really good even when Gates was healthy which he is not.
BEN HOGEVOLL (Siletz, OR)
I believe Green was ranked 23rd-26th in the various formats on Tuesday. When Gates is hurt, then we can start looking at Green as a top-5 tight end. That far Green is averaging 51 yards per game, with 4 TDs in six games (plus a pair of 2-point conversions). But for Green to be a viable tight end, I think, somebody’s got to be hurt. Thus far that’s been the case every week. Gates was suspended for four games and didn’t play on Sunday because of a knee injury. In their other two games, Stevie Johnson was out with a hamstring injury. Green is really almost as much a wide receiver as a tight end. When Johnson is down, Green operates essentially as a wide receiver in their three-wide package. So he’s been playing. He’s also benefitted from the offense playing well. It’s up at 359 passing yards per game right now, with at least 2 TD passes in every game. I expect that will settle down some the rest of the way, and when they get everyone healthy, I think you’ll see Green tail off. Gates hasn’t practiced yet this week, so I think we can think of Green as a top-5 tight end this week at Baltimore.
Question 3
What are your thoughts on a "rest of the year" guess between Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks?
Jeff Carter (Franklin, TN)
A couple of guys who were supposed to be top-15 receivers (or better) but haven’t been. Both still have the potential to produce at that level in the second half of the season. Cooks has just missed on a few plays, and there was the Drew Brees shoulder issue. Evans was hurt at the start of the year but seems to be coming on. With Evans, you also have the added factor of Vincent Jackson being out for a couple of weeks with a knee injury. I believe I’d go slightly higher on Evans.
Question 4
This is a redundant topic, but what are realistic players to expect back for Lacy? Forsett, Woodhead and Hillman are the other RB's I have. Along with Fitz, Marshall, Cooks and Dez at WR. Having Lacy on the roster makes it close to impossible to sit him. It's almost better I don't have him.
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
Starks apparently picked up some kind of hip injury in the San Diego game because he didn’t practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. Lacy, meanwhile, should be healthier. (And maybe getting demoted against the Chargers will light a fire under him.). I have him a little higher than Starks on my board this week. But for your purposes, Lacy is your No. 4 back right now. Given his situation and his matchup (at Denver) I would have Lacy behind all three of those others guys for Week 8. I would say Lacy and Starks have similar value right now overall. If we were redrafting a league right now, they’d both probably be selected about 30 running backs in. A few weeks from now, one might have played his way up into the top 15, but they’re not coveted guys right now.
Question 5
I am in a 12 team PPR league and I currently have Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton on my team. I am definitely happy with their production. But, I used your defensive power ratings and it looks like Palmer will have a couple of tough matchups during the fantasy playoffs: Minnesota, Philly, Green Bay, Seattle. I have a possibility of getting Ryan Tannehill. Should I drop Palmer and pick up Tannehill?
Frank Catalano (Houston, PA)
Tannehill and Palmer, I think, are in the same group of quarterbacks. I think they’re very similar. Would not be excited about playing Palmer against Seattle, Green Bay or St. Louis. But the relative strengths of defenses can be fickle. The Packers gave up over 500 yards in their last game, to San Diego. Palmer probably will finish with slightly better passing numbers, while Tannehill can help at times as a runner. He hasn’t been running that much this year, but he’s averaged 17 rushing yards per game over the last two years, which is like an extra 34 passing yards per game for fantasy purposes. If you want to zero in on Weeks 14-17, then it’s definitely Tannehill (Giants, at San Diego, Colts, Patriots) over Palmer (Vikings, at Eagles, Packers, Seahawks). I would favor Tannehill in all four of those games.
Question 6
I know you're not a fan of "grading" your projections...but I am just about done with Matt Ryan. I've started him over Bortles 4 weeks in a row, and endured single digit losses each time while Bortles outscores Ryan on my bench. The last 4 weeks: Ryan 14, Bortles 18. Ryan 23, Bortles 31. Ryan 9, Bortles 37. Ryan 16, Bortles 20. Total points for the year, Bortles 163, Ryan 129. Do we face facts & just admit Bortles is a better fantasy play than Ryan, or is there something in the tape that tells you that this is just an aberration? I trust your judgment based on all of the work you do ... but Ryan's been KILLING ME.
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
Agreed. I’ve got Ryan in a lot (I think most) of my leagues, and he’s been a liability. In a general sense, I’ve been looking at how Ryan has performed in the past, and Atlanta having a good team and being in favorable situations. But on a lot of the weeks, the production simply hasn’t been there. That running game is a lot better than I thought it would be, especially around the goal line. They’re scoring a lot more of their touchdowns on runs rather than passes. Not that Ryan, with some minor tweaks, might not be one of the top half-dozen fantasy quarterbacks in the league in the second half of the season, but it makes sense to consider other options. Ryan is in a favorable situation again this week (at home against Tampa Bay) but I’m going instead with Ryan Fitzpatrick in a couple of leagues. With Bortles, you have the nice dynamic of the Jaguars not having much of a running game. They’ve scored all but one of their touchdowns on pass plays (so they’re kind of the opposite of the Falcons right now). For fantasy purposes, Bortles also will give you some rushing production. He’s averaging 21 rushing yards per game, while Ryan is down at 7 (which is like an extra 28 passing yards per week in most leagues).
Question 7
When I drafted them on draft night I never would have believed I would ask this question. Should I start Cam Newton over Aaron Rodgers?
david hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Definitely Rodgers hasn’t been playing that well and is on the road against maybe the best defense in the league. Newton is playing well and is at home against a lesser defense. Easy call.