Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Working the home-away angle on defenses and special teams. When can we call Melvin Gordon a bust? Is Larry Fitzgerald doomed to put up a goose egg against the Legion of Boom? And is Carolina overdue for a letdown at Tennessee?
Question 1
Are there more defensive (interception, fumble) and special team (kickoff, punt) return TDs for teams when they are playing at home or doesn't it matter?
Joe Rossini (Woodbury, MN)
I use to carefully tabulate stats for home versus away. All of them – passing, rushing, scoring, offense, defense. I recall it taking most a day to put it all together. But after doing it for a few years, I decided those resources would be better utilized in other areas. Picking through the old numbers, I see that in 2003, I believe there were 7 more touchdowns scored on returns at home – 60-53. The following year, 2004, there were 7 more scored on the road – 65-58. My conclusion at that time was that it didn’t make much of a difference. But now that you raise the issue, I have gone back through the two most currently completed seasons. In 2014, there were 62 of these touchdowns scored at home, versus only 40 on the road. So that’s a measurable difference. In 2013, the advantage wasn’t as pronounced – 65-55. Combining those two seasons, it works out to about a 19 percent chance of getting a defensive touchdown when a team is on the road, but a 25 percent chance when playing at home. So it’s reasonable to say that if you’re picking between two comparable defenses, you should lean towards the one playing at home. On this topic, note that the odds become a lot stronger if you select a winning team. In those same 2013-14 seasons, there were 160 return touchdowns for teams that won, versus only 64 touchdowns for teams that lost. So that 25-19 percent spread turns into 32-13. The tricky deal there, however, is that many of those teams didn’t score defensive touchdowns because they won, they won because they scored defensive touchdowns. In the Bills-Jets game last night, for example, the Bills picked up a fumble for a touchdown and they won. But we didn’t know prior to that game that the Bills would be the winners. If not for that fortuitous play, they very likely would have lost. But whatever. Good question. Thanks for sending it in.
Question 2
This is surely an odd question, but do you know what happened to the NFL gamebooks? How would someone find out if a player like Christine Michael even saw the field during a game?
MARTIN DONNELLY (Elmhurst, IL)
Michael didn’t play against the Eagles. For the gamebooks, they’ve become a little harder to find this year. Basically, you need to go to NFL.com and click on the link showing the score of the game. When you click through to it (on my computer) video starts playing, usually starting with a commercial. After the commercial plays, you have the option to close the video player. When you close that portion, you should see a link for the gamebook. On many games this year, however, there is no gamebook link. For those games, go instead to the next game to see the URL code, then adjust it (by adding 1 to the number and changing the home team). For the Week 10 game between the Cowboys and Eagles, the URL is … http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/56633/DALGamebook.pdf. That was the last game on Sunday, so for the Monday night game between the Chargers and Bears, the URL changes to http://www.nfl.com/liveupdate/gamecenter/56634/SDGamebook.pdf.
Question 3
What do you make of Melvin Gordon? I'm in a keeper league, and had the No. 1 pick. I agonized over Gordon, Hyde, and C.J. Anderson, finally settling on Gordon after taking in the NFL combine reports on the guy. After having had a few looks at him on TV, I see a lot of potential, despite the 'stuffs'. I think a lot of it (a REAL lot of it) is that they are overdoing mixing in the different packages, disallowing Gordon to get into the flow of the game, wherein he may get the chance to break a few. Yeah, the line's a mess, but Woodhead's getting decent mileage out of the pistol and spread, two packages that tend to open up the box. It's a mess when you blow your first pick. Would you say that's what I've done, taking into account that it's a keeper league?
Paul Desimone (Hayward, CA)
It’s way too early to label Gordon a bust. They would like to have gotten more out of him thus far. No doubt about that. Knowing what they know now, they never would have selected him 15th overall. But he’s still a talented guy, and he’s working on his game. Guys get better. Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West and Charles Sims, for example, didn’t do too much as rookies, and they look a lot better now. I saw Gordon pop a couple of nice gainers at Cincinnati, so I know he can do it. He scored a really nice touchdown in the opener against Detroit that was overturned on a replay. So let’s give him some time to turn things around. And let’s keep in mind that he’ll probably be playing in a different offense next year. The Chargers are losing a lot of games, so there’s a good chance they’ll fire Mike McCoy at the end of the season. I’m not saying that they should do that; I think he’s a good coach. But the NFL is a bottom-line business, and when teams lose double-digit games, the coaches tend to get fired. And if they bring in a new guy, he might install a completely different offense – maybe one that’s a lot better suited to Gordon’s game. So if I were holding him in a keeper league, my leaning would be to stay the course, rather than giving him away in a fire sale.
Question 4
Newton and Olsen are both ranked quite high at their respective positions. Carolina does have a very good match up against Tennessee. But, I see this as a potential letdown game after the big win against Green Bay. I am not suggesting they are going to lose, after all, they have their undefeated streak to defend (not to mention, they are a much better team.) I think Carolina's offense could underperform and their defense gets them a win in a lower scoring affair. Do you think that theory holds water?
PHIL KEIL (Pottsville, PA)
Andy Richardson put together the Carolina-Tennessee preview. I think he’s of the school of thought it’s just a turkey shoot win for the Panthers. I would have given more weight to the possibility that it’s a low-scoring yawner. The Titans have played pretty solid defense at times, and they’ve played better at home. In recent home games, Tennessee has lost 14-13 and 10-7 against the Bills and Falcons. I could see it being one of those kind of games. The Titans had the Colts on the ropes in that stadium before they gave it away. In only half of their eight games has the Tennessee defense given up more than 2 TDs. I remember the Panthers playing in a low-scoring clunker at Jacksonville. So I agree with you that there is some defensive potential in this game. That is not represented in the text of the Weekly product, but I’m ultimately responsible for putting in the stat projections that create the rankings. That is, I read the preview, look at the game-by-game stats for each offense and defense, and then put in the actual numbers that drive in the rankings. Thus far Carolina’s offense has scored 24 TDs, an average of 3 per game. So you could argue that if it’s an average or above-average situation for that offense, it should be projected at 3, 3.3 or even 3.5 TDs. But I put it down for 2.75 touchdowns – 1.72 passing and 1.03 rushing. They’re averaging 228 passing yards, but I projected them at 215. But guys like Cam Newton and Greg Olsen are playing so well that it’s tough to sit them down.
Question 5
How would you handle Larry Fitzgerald this week? His numbers have been horrible against the Legion of Boom the past few years. Do you think the Cards move him around and keep him away from Sherman or just go to Brown and Floyd? Also I am desperate for a QB this week with Ryan and Rivers on Bye. I picked up Landry Jones but I hear Ben might play. The only other waiver starters left are Manziel and McCown. What a quandary as to know who is going to play. This is a 12-team league with so many guy keeping 3 QBs on their roster. I need to pick a guy by Friday night. I am not sure why so many owners would keep 3 QBs?
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
The Seahawks have been handling their defense a little differently. Rather than always leaving Sherman at that left cornerback spot, they have been moving him around. He was assigned to Dez Bryant for most of the Dallas game, and that worked well. Bryant caught only 2 passes for 12 yards. If they go that route again (and they probably will) I expect they’d stick Sherman on Fitzgerald. I think the Cardinals probably would be more interested in working whatever receiver they line up on the left against Cary Williams. Probably John Brown or Michael Floyd. But there are a lot of variables at play here. For starters, you don’t know for certain that Sherman will be on Fitzgerald. And Fitzgerald might have a good game anyway. Unlike Bryant, Fitzgerald lines up often in the slot, making it harder for Sherman to stay with him. They might run him through traffic more often, perhaps, creating more of a pick action. The Cardinals have passed the ball awfully well this year. For me, I think the correct course is to move Fitzgerald down a little bit, but if he’s usually one of your starting receivers, it’s probably best to just go ahead and start him again this week.
Question 6
Just lost Luck. Have been offered Matt Ryan and Eddie Lacy for Shady McCoy. Should I do it?
Rick Cwik (Lemont, IL)
I don’t think so. McCoy is the best player in there. I would just stick with him and handle the quarterback situation by plugging in best available guys. Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater and Landry Jones, for example, should adequately fill that position in Week 10.
Question 7
I never thought I could be asking these questions, but here it is. I have Luck and Flacco as QBs and have been offered either Rodgers or Bortles for Latavius Murray. This would still leave me Martin, Ivory, and Miller at running back in a standard flex league. Which of those two guys would you take going forward? Or just leave things as is and hope Luck comes back soon? The schedule looks pretty good for Bortles.
DAMON DUHON (Baton Rouge, LA)
This might be a deal where you want to start looking at playoff matchups. If you’re confident you’re going to be in the postseason, maybe look at which guys might give you a chance the best chance to win it all. Latavius Murray is at home in Week 16 against San Diego, which is really struggling against the run right now. Would be nice to have him that week. Similarly, Rodgers has a couple of games coming up against Detroit, and he’s at Oakland in Week 15. The Raiders right now are allowing a league-high 325 passing yards per game.
Question 8
Hi Ian, Can you rank the best/worst defenses vs the run and vs the pass?
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
If we’re using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards, then they look like this after the end of Week 9.
| DEFENSES VS. RUN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | RPG | TDR | Points |
| 1. | NY Jets | 81 | .25 | 9.6 |
| 2. | Arizona | 90 | .38 | 11.3 |
| 3. | New England | 89 | .50 | 11.9 |
| 4. | Pittsburgh | 102 | .33 | 12.2 |
| 5. | Cincinnati | 105 | .38 | 12.8 |
| 6. | Kansas City | 101 | .50 | 13.1 |
| 7. | Oakland | 97 | .63 | 13.4 |
| 8. | Philadelphia | 113 | .38 | 13.6 |
| 9. | Chicago | 122 | .25 | 13.7 |
| 10. | Baltimore | 100 | .63 | 13.7 |
| 11. | Denver | 93 | .75 | 13.8 |
| 12. | Buffalo | 94 | .75 | 13.9 |
| 13. | St. Louis | 104 | .63 | 14.2 |
| 14. | Seattle | 99 | .75 | 14.4 |
| 15. | Tampa Bay | 108 | .63 | 14.6 |
| 16. | Minnesota | 112 | .63 | 14.9 |
| 17. | Carolina | 108 | .75 | 15.3 |
| 18. | Jacksonville | 94 | 1.00 | 15.4 |
| 19. | NY Giants | 114 | .67 | 15.4 |
| 20. | Atlanta | 89 | 1.22 | 16.2 |
| 21. | Tennessee | 111 | .88 | 16.4 |
| 22. | New Orleans | 123 | .78 | 16.9 |
| 23. | Washington | 133 | .63 | 17.0 |
| 24. | San Francisco | 112 | 1.00 | 17.2 |
| 25. | Indianapolis | 115 | 1.00 | 17.5 |
| 26. | Dallas | 108 | 1.13 | 17.5 |
| 27. | Houston | 124 | .88 | 17.6 |
| 28. | San Diego | 123 | 1.00 | 18.3 |
| 29. | Green Bay | 125 | 1.00 | 18.5 |
| 30. | Miami | 142 | .88 | 19.5 |
| 31. | Cleveland | 148 | 1.00 | 20.8 |
| 32. | Detroit | 134 | 1.75 | 23.9 |
| DEFENSES VS. PASS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| 1. | Seattle | 202 | .75 | 24.7 |
| 2. | Denver | 206 | .88 | 25.9 |
| 3. | St. Louis | 237 | .63 | 27.4 |
| 4. | Minnesota | 236 | 1.13 | 30.4 |
| 5. | Dallas | 251 | 1.13 | 31.9 |
| 6. | Arizona | 233 | 1.63 | 33.0 |
| 7. | Atlanta | 258 | 1.22 | 33.1 |
| 8. | Cincinnati | 262 | 1.25 | 33.7 |
| 9. | Carolina | 259 | 1.38 | 34.1 |
| 10. | Green Bay | 273 | 1.25 | 34.8 |
| 11. | Tennessee | 237 | 1.88 | 34.9 |
| 12. | Washington | 254 | 1.63 | 35.1 |
| 13. | New England | 268 | 1.50 | 35.8 |
| 14. | Chicago | 232 | 2.13 | 36.0 |
| 15. | NY Jets | 258 | 1.75 | 36.3 |
| 16. | Houston | 246 | 2.00 | 36.6 |
| 17. | Philadelphia | 270 | 1.63 | 36.7 |
| 18. | San Diego | 261 | 1.78 | 36.8 |
| 19. | Detroit | 270 | 1.75 | 37.5 |
| 20. | Miami | 257 | 2.00 | 37.7 |
| 21. | Buffalo | 267 | 1.88 | 38.0 |
| 22. | Cleveland | 264 | 2.00 | 38.4 |
| 23. | Jacksonville | 281 | 1.75 | 38.6 |
| 24. | San Francisco | 294 | 1.56 | 38.8 |
| 25. | Kansas City | 273 | 2.00 | 39.3 |
| 26. | Pittsburgh | 286 | 1.78 | 39.3 |
| 27. | Indianapolis | 287 | 1.78 | 39.4 |
| 28. | Tampa Bay | 256 | 2.38 | 39.8 |
| 29. | Baltimore | 301 | 2.00 | 42.1 |
| 30. | NY Giants | 315 | 1.89 | 42.9 |
| 31. | Oakland | 325 | 1.88 | 43.8 |
| 32. | New Orleans | 306 | 2.67 | 46.6 |
Question 9
16-team distance scoring league. I drafted Brian Quick with a very late pick and thought I had a steal. Is there any chance he could still be relevant or is it time to cut bait? I'm in the hunt and I need the roster spot, but for some reason I feel it's right to hang on to him.
PAUL STENARD (Ross, CA)
He will play a little bit more going forward. The league just suspended Stedman Bailey for four games. So Quick is definitely the No. 3 receiver in that offense, behind Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt. But Quick was kind of a co-No. 3 anyway. I saw him on the field plenty against Minnesota last week. Trouble is he’s just not doing much. I would guess there’s somebody better available on the waiver wire in your league.
Question 10
Do you ever put out a playoff redrafter, projecting points for players specifically for Weeks 14-16. This would be very helpful in evaluating trades when your team is looking like you have made the playoffs, but willing to trade the good playoff players?
Peter Wohler (Minneapolis, MN)
There are too many different variables. Some leagues have playoffs in Weeks 14-16. Others do Weeks 16-17. Some do Weeks 15-16. Some have bye weeks, with higher-seeded teams sitting out the first round of the playoffs. And different teams have different agendas. Some are mostly concerned with trying to get to the championship game. They want to prioritize Week 14 (or Week 15), figuring they’ll handle their Super Bowl if and when they get there. Other teams figure they’re good enough that they’re priority is more on making sure they come up big in the championship game in Week 16 (or Week 17). All of these various scenarios need to be addressed for dozens of different scoring systems, and they really apply only to the small subset of guys with win-loss records that are good enough to have the luxury of taking one eye off the regular season. So best in these kind of issues to avoid the macro approach and instead go micro. That is, if you’re thinking about trading out a defense or kicker or whatever, you could run the idea by me. “I’ve got X as my defense, but since they’re playing Y and Z in Weeks 14-15 what defenses should I be looking at as possible replacements?”
Question 11
In our keeper league we have a four player taxi squad for rookies. We can keep them on the Taxi for as long as we prefer, so you can wait until the player is ready to contribute. My Taxi currently has Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Phillip Dorsett, and Sammie Coates. This is the last week I can replace any of them. Available players I am looking at are: Bryce Petty, Garrett Grayson, Brett Hundley, Devin Smith, or JJ Nelson. Which four should I keep?
Dennis Thomas (Royal Oaks, CA)
I think you’ve got it about right. Mason is a nice handcuff. If anything happens to Todd Gurley, you’ll have something. Dorsett could develop into a superstar. Those are your top two. Sankey and Coates don’t look as promising, but I saw Coates make a couple of catches in the preseason where he looked like an NFL guy. The Steelers have had a great track record with developing wide receivers. Devin Smith is the same tier as those two guys, so you can think about him, but he’s not necessarily an upgrade.
Question 12
I have three QBs on my roster Brees, Eli Manning (I also have Odell Beckham), and Tyrod Taylor, but I'm only allowed to keep two, and i can't trade anyone. Leaning towards Brees and Taylor. Eli and Brees also have the same bye week 11. What's your opinion for the rest of the year, your redrafter has Eli pretty low.
Jonathan Sheppard (DEPTFORD, NJ)
I think Taylor makes the most sense. For starters, you need somebody to start in Week 11. Taylor actually has a lousy matchup that week (at New England) but Manning isn’t playing at all. Taylor is an active runner, and that must be factored in. He’s averaging 39 rushing yards per game, which is 34 more than Manning. In most fantasy scoring systems, that’s like an extra 68 passing yards per game. Manning should tend to give you more passing yards and touchdowns, but he’s not having a great year. He’s been under 215 passing yards in five of his eight games.
Question 13
In our league, Dez is available. I'm not sure why he's still available at this point. A couple of owners could use him, but don't have the cap room for him without restructuring their lineup. Others have cap room, but are all but out of the race and appear to have thrown in the towel. I don't have the cap room either unless I free up some money elsewhere. One option would be to drop DeMarco Murray and Jeremy Maclin for Jordan Matthews and Dez. My other RBs are Ingram and West, and my WRs are Julio and Sanders. Do you think it is worth it to swap Murray for Matthews in order to get Dez (.5 ppr, 8-team league)? Thanks.
Roy Sherman (Columbia, TN)
The risk is that you’re going down to two running backs. You’re locked into starting Ingram and West every week. Ingram has his bye coming up. West needs to play at Denver. I’m not excited about those games. But Bryant is a heck of a talent, and he could really take off in the final seven weeks, with Tony Romo back in the lineup. If I was walking into a draft today, I would selected Bryant before Sanders. With Sanders, you’re tied to Peyton Manning’s noodle arm issues, worrying about weather in a lot of the remaining games. I saw Sanders tweak his ankle early in the Indianapolis game, and that’s also a concern. My leaning would be to take on Bryant and worry about finding a new third running back later.
Question 14
I've been starting Martellus Bennett as Royal has been out, which moves him up in the progression, but I don't like the match up at St. Louis. Should I go with Snead or LaFell instead? Abdullah is a flex option as well but I think playing at Green Bay would be a tough place to start him even if he is supposed to get more touches after the bye.
david hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Agreed. I think you’re looking at Snead or LaFell. I’ve got them higher than Bennett in every scoring system.
Question 15
Who's backing up McFadden?
MARTIN DONNELLY (Elmhurst, IL)
If McFadden gets hurt, Christine Michael will be the next guy they would put in the starting lineup.