TENNESSEE (vs. Jacksonville):
Tennessee’s offense has been strikingly punchless, scoring 14 or fewer points in seven of its 11 games. The exceptions have one thing in common: all four opponents (Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, New Orleans and Oakland) were soft against the pass. Jacksonville has also struggled in this area (26th), so the Titans could put up solid numbers. We’d say this with more confidence had these teams not met in Jacksonville just two weeks ago, with Tennessee scoring only 13 points. ... Marcus Mariota has played well at times, especially in favorable matchups. He’s faced five defenses currently ranked 24th or lower against the pass, and put up solid numbers in all of those games.
| Mariota versus bottom-10 pass defenses | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Yards | TD | INT |
| at Cleveland | 257 | 2 | 0 |
| Indianapolis | 367 | 2 | 2 |
| at New Orleans | 371 | 4 | 0 |
| at Jacksonville | 231 | 0 | 0 |
| Oakland | 218 | 3 | 2 |
Note that his poorest game was against Jacksonville; his only touchdown in that game came on a running play. Still, the history suggests he has a strong chance to come through with above-average yards and 1-2 TDs. Probably 2 TDs, with Jacksonville having allowed 21 in 11 games, and two-thirds of those (14) in the last six weeks. That didn’t carry over to the earlier meeting, but he was without his best ...
This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... wide receiver in that game, who will play this time around. We can’t go too high on Mariota (as noted in the Jacksonville capsule, these teams have played four straight games in which neither team scored more than 21 points), but the matchup looks favorable. ... Delanie Walker comes off a 91-yard game, the third time in his last four he’s put up at least 90 yards. That includes catching 8 passes for 109 yards at Jacksonville. He averages 71 yards per game, while the Jaguars have allowed 6 TDs to tight ends -- 4 TDs in the last three games. Walker caught 7 balls for 111 yards in the series a year ago. ... Kendall Wright missed the earlier game due to a knee injury, and played limited snaps in his first game back last week. He should be out there closer to full-time, and it’s a favorable situation. The Jaguars have allowed only 12 of 21 TD passes to wide receivers, but 9 of those have come in the last six games. Wright, it should be noted, had a poor game (a single 6-yard catch) and a good game (4 for 73) against this defense last season, both of which were quarterbacked by Charlie Whitehurst. The other involved wideouts will likely be Dorial Green-Beckham and Harry Douglas, with the veteran looking like the better option. Douglas had a really impressive touchdown grab with a defender draped all over him last week, and drew multiple end-zone interference calls the previous game. Green-Beckham caught 3 balls for 40 yards at Jacksonville, but for whatever reason hasn’t been heavily involved in the offense. He has just one game with more than 3 catches all season, and that was against a really awful Saints defense. Mike Mularkey called Green-Beckham out on Tuesday, so perhaps that will motivate him. In any case, Wright’s return will likely result in fewer looks for both wideouts. ... The Tennessee ground game has been struggling: under 65 yards in two of the last three games. The exception was at Jacksonville (104), although Mariota accounted for nearly a third of that total (29). Antonio Andrews (15 for 78 in that game) did average 5.2 yards per carry, and he’s the clear lead back. David Cobb hasn’t impressed since making his debut (7 carries, 5 yards), Dexter McCluster is hurt, Bishop Sankey hardly even playing. Andrews did nothing against Oakland (11 for 32), but that’s a respectable run defense. Despite his earlier outing, though, Andrews is unlikely to do much here. Jacksonville’s 6th-ranked run defense allows just 3.3 yards per carry, and if you set aside New England gutting this defense for 4 rushing scores, it’s allowed just 5 TDs in its other 10 games. Andrews runs hard but he’s awfully slow, and it’s a tough matchup. He should get most of the snaps, giving him some value, but there’s minimal upside. ... Ryan Succop is accurate enough, but he’s not getting enough chances. He’s kicked only 12 field goals in 11 games. Just 7 points in the earlier meeting, though he also missed from 53 yards. Jacksonville allows just over 8 kicking points per game, so it’s a reasonable enough matchup. ... The Titans Defense looks very good. It’s got 32 sacks and 10 interceptions, while Blake Bortles simply can’t stop serving up both. He’s taking more than 3 sacks per game (34) and has thrown 13 interceptions -- at least one in seven straight games and multiple picks in two of those. He’s also lost a pair of fumbles, for good measure. He turned it over twice and took 4 sacks in the earlier meeting, and it won’t be surprising if Tennessee reaches those levels again.