I can't say I thought the Broncos would win yesterday. There was a small part of me that considered picking them, but it was all heart and not mind. I wanted them to win, but I just didn't see it happening. In retrospect, of course, I wish I'd listened to that small part of myself and made the pick.

Where it was clear Denver had the edge was in pass rush. The storyline went though that Tom Brady would be able to pepper Julian Edelman with passes all game to slow that down. Instead, what happened was that the pass rush was so potent and relentless -- full credit to Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and coordinator Wade Phillips, who never let up -- that Brady wasn't even getting enough time and enough comfort to do that.

I don't agree with the idea that Brady played poorly. Yes he was intercepted twice and had a mountain of incompletions, but it's not as if he was off-target all game. How many of his errant throws were basically spikes into the turf to avoid sacks? How many were balls to James White that the running back could/should have come up with? His fourth and long completion to a well-covered Gronkowski was about the best pass you'll ever see, and the touchdown was also impressive. The 2-point conversion, well, I don't know what that play was supposed to be. It didn't really have much of a chance no matter where he could have thrown it.

Peyton Manning. He's a Hall of Famer, and we probably all should have given more credit to the notion that he'd be capable enough to pull this one out. Granted he led all of one touchdown drive, made maybe a handful of really good throws, but that was enough without making any mistakes, playing at home, and having a great defense on his side. Had that 12-yard run, got the team in position for some critical field goals, and threw a couple of pretty passes to Owen Daniels. Congrats to him.

Should the Patriots have kicked a field goal on one of those series where they went for it on fourth down? I think so. The two-point conversion, league-wide, year after year, is a 50-50 proposition. When you're down 8 you can say it's a one-score game, but you really need to score twice on back to back plays, and that's tough to do. They had all three timeouts and Denver's offense wasn't doing anything, so kicking a field goal with 5 minutes left down 8 points would have made it a true one-score game.

Saw a stat this morning saying Tom Brady is just 3-4 on the road in the postseason. Think about that: the team has played in six Super Bowls with him and a bunch more championship games over the 15 years, and the guy has only appeared in seven road playoff games. What that highlights is that New England has gotten a lot of mileage out of crushing the AFC East year after year, getting homefield advantage and having a huge edge come playoff time. If the AFC East had been better at any point in the Brady era, New England wouldn't have gone to six Super Bowls.

One final note: not a great game for Gary Kubiak. A stupid challenge on the Amendola incompletion, that may have helped New England catch its breath before that fourth-down touchdown to Gronkowski. A couple of other plays that should have been challenged and weren't. A fourth-down punt from around the New England 37. His confusing usage of Ronnie Hillman, who has been awful for a month now. (Hillman's lack of hustle on the incomplete pass that anyone watching knew might be a lateral was another strike against him.) I don't have much confidence in Kubiak's ability to give Denver any kind of edge two weeks from now.

As for the NFC game, the less said the better. I posted something yesterday about the Albert Breer report that Carson Palmer's finger injury had affected him down the stretch. It's difficult, though, to attribute all of Palmer's horrific throws and decisions yesterday to that. Maybe those interceptions would have been completions if not for the finger? Hard to say that given the passes looked fine -- nice spirals, not fluttering or lollipopping out there. The end-zone pick before the half was simply the worst, a first-down miscue when Arizona could have cut the lead to 24-14 and made a game of it. Instead, it was 27-7 midway through the third the next time they touched the ball.

Full credit to Carolina. They were the best team all season and certainly faced the other two best NFC teams, Seattle and Arizona, en route to the Super Bowl. Cam Newton had himself a year, and Greg Olsen and Jonathan Stewart both stepped up in the postseason and down the stretch. (A note about Ron Rivera: why, late in the game, was Newton on the sidelines but Stewart still carrying it? And why did the team go for 2 after taking a 40-15 lead in the final period? Maybe not a big deal, but....)

Sitting in a bar we were debating what the opening spread would be. We guessed Carolina by 3 1/2 or 4 -- with an outside shot at 6. We were pretty close with 4. I think I'd take Carolina. It's another tough defense Manning will face in a Super Bowl. Then again, with both defenses excellent, might make sense to go with a low-scoring defensive struggle, giving the underdog the advantage. Today, I'll say 20-16 Carolina. We'll see how much the media blitz changes my mind over the next two weeks.