I was just putting together some Experts Poll stuff for the magazine. That’s the feature where we featured 20 other analysts. And I notice that they are giving wide receivers a lot more respect in the overall portion of the poll. Antonio Brown winds up No. 1, and Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones are in the top 5.
But is that the correct call? Has the time comes for us all to start selecting wide receivers rather than running backs in the first round?
The bust rate was certainly high with running backs last year. Most of the ones selected in the top 10 didn’t pan out.
But there is something to be said for landing a great running back (if you can find that guy).
In fantasy we often talk about relative values. You look at the production of the top player at a position, and compare him to what you might get after 10, 20 or 30 picks.
And I will offer this on the running back vs. wide receiver debate.
In each of the last 16 years, the stat difference between the No. 1 and No. 24 (the last starter in a typical 12-team league) has been greater at running back than at wide receiver.
It was closer last year, with Antonio Brown outscoring T.Y. Hilton by about 114 points in a standard league (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards). But that still falls just short of the 122-point different between Devonta Freeman and Jeremy Langford.
Of course, this is just one dimension. Freeman wasn’t even a first-round pick in leagues last year, while we all agreed Brown would be very good (which he was).
But there’s still value with running backs – you’ve just got to pick the right one.
SPREAD BETWEEN BEST RUNNING BACK AND NO. 24 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Best RB | Points | 24th-best RB | Points | Diff |
2000 | Marshall Faulk | 378.9 | James Allen | 159.1 | 219.8 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk | 342.7 | Maurice Smith | 135.0 | 207.7 |
2002 | Priest Holmes | 372.7 | Edgerrin James | 154.3 | 218.4 |
2003 | Priest Holmes | 373.0 | Anthony Thomas | 142.0 | 231.0 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander | 306.6 | Chris Brown | 157.4 | 149.2 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander | 363.8 | DeShaun Foster | 143.1 | 220.7 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 426.3 | Warrick Dunn | 161.0 | 265.3 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 306.9 | Reggie Bush | 141.8 | 165.1 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams | 285.6 | Jonathan Stewart | 148.3 | 137.3 |
2009 | Chris Johnson | 348.9 | Jerome Harrison | 150.2 | 198.7 |
2010 | Arian Foster | 330.0 | LeGarrette Blount | 138.1 | 191.9 |
2011 | Ray Rice | 300.8 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 148.6 | 152.2 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson | 311.4 | Willis McGahee | 121.2 | 190.2 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles | 312.0 | Rashard Mendenhall | 132.1 | 179.9 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray | 304.1 | Steven Jackson | 121.5 | 182.6 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman | 247.4 | Jeremy Langford | 125.6 | 121.8 |
SPREAD BETWEEN BEST WIDE RECEIVER AND NO. 24 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Best WR | Points | 24th-best WR | Points | Diff |
2000 | Randy Moss | 236.2 | Derrick Mason | 125.6 | 110.6 |
2001 | Marvin Harrison | 242.7 | James Thrash | 137.0 | 105.7 |
2002 | Marvin Harrison | 241.2 | Curtis Conway | 132.5 | 108.7 |
2003 | Randy Moss | 267.0 | Andre Johnson | 120.6 | 146.4 |
2004 | Muhsin Muhammad | 238.0 | Lee Evans | 146.8 | 91.2 |
2005 | Steve Smith Sr. | 236.8 | Jimmy Smith | 125.3 | 111.5 |
2006 | Marvin Harrison | 208.6 | Larry Fitzgerald | 130.6 | 78.0 |
2007 | Randy Moss | 287.3 | Shaun McDonald | 130.5 | 156.8 |
2008 | Larry Fitzgerald | 215.1 | Laveranues Coles | 127.9 | 87.2 |
2009 | Andre Johnson | 212.9 | Anquan Boldin | 133.6 | 79.3 |
2010 | Brandon Lloyd | 209.0 | Johnny Knox | 126.2 | 82.8 |
2011 | Calvin Johnson | 265.2 | Torrey Smith | 130.0 | 135.2 |
2012 | Calvin Johnson | 226.4 | Torrey Smith | 134.4 | 92.0 |
2013 | Josh Gordon | 227.4 | Michael Floyd | 134.1 | 93.3 |
2014 | Antonio Brown | 261.1 | Julian Edelman | 136.6 | 124.5 |
2015 | Antonio Brown | 256.2 | T.Y. Hilton | 142.4 | 113.8 |
—Ian Allan