I’m not a huge fan of Strength of Schedule, but it’s something I look at from time to time. It can make a slight difference in offensive performance. Just not an overwhelming amount.
Consider, for example, the teams that historically have played the league’s easiest schedules. Below you’ll see a chart showing the three easiest schedules for each of the last 13 years – 39 teams, with the expected average number of points allowed. That’s based on how defenses played the previous year. And then you’ve got how the schedule actually turned out – how many points were allowed by those same defenses, on average, in their 240 combined games against other teams.
Overall, the easy average going in was 23.1 points per game. But by the end of the year, the actual total was 22.4 points.
Of those 39 schedules that were suppose to be easy, 15 ended up being top-5 (easy) schedules. Five of them went the opposite way, becoming instead bottom-5 (difficult) schedules.
| EASIEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2003 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Exp | Act | Rnk |
| 2014 | Indianapolis | 24.8 | 22.8 | 15 |
| 2016 | Dallas | 24.8 | ? | ? |
| 2015 | Tampa Bay | 24.8 | 22.9 | 17 |
| 2014 | Detroit | 24.6 | 23.5 | 4 |
| 2014 | Miami | 24.6 | 21.6 | 29 |
| 2012 | Atlanta | 24.4 | 24.4 | 1 |
| 2015 | Carolina | 24.3 | 23.3 | 12 |
| 2015 | Atlanta | 24.3 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 2013 | Denver | 24.0 | 23.2 | 16 |
| 2003 | Chicago | 23.9 | 22.4 | 1 |
| 2012 | New Orleans | 23.9 | 22.1 | 26 |
| 2009 | Seattle | 23.8 | 23.6 | 3 |
| 2003 | Seattle | 23.8 | 21.8 | 4 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 23.7 | ? | ? |
| 2012 | Tampa Bay | 23.7 | 23.3 | 9 |
| 2016 | Chicago | 23.7 | ? | ? |
| 2009 | San Francisco | 23.6 | 19.3 | 31 |
| 2013 | Dallas | 23.5 | 24.9 | 7 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 23.4 | 25.1 | 5 |
| 2009 | Arizona | 23.3 | 20.3 | 29 |
| 2011 | Washington | 23.3 | 22.9 | 12 |
| 2003 | Oakland | 23.3 | 21.6 | 9 |
| 2011 | Tennessee | 23.1 | 22.1 | 18 |
| 2011 | Miami | 22.9 | 23.0 | 10 |
| 2005 | Arizona | 22.7 | 21.8 | 3 |
| 2008 | San Francisco | 22.6 | 23.6 | 4 |
| 2005 | Philadelphia | 22.6 | 20.8 | 15 |
| 2005 | St. Louis | 22.6 | 21.8 | 2 |
| 2010 | Washington | 22.5 | 22.8 | 10 |
| 2010 | Dallas | 22.5 | 22.4 | 13 |
| 2010 | San Francisco | 22.5 | 22.8 | 12 |
| 2008 | New England | 22.4 | 23.0 | 9 |
| 2008 | Buffalo | 22.4 | 23.4 | 5 |
| 2004 | Tampa Bay | 22.3 | 22.9 | 2 |
| 2007 | Carolina | 22.1 | 21.8 | 15 |
| 2004 | Denver | 22.0 | 23.0 | 1 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay | 21.9 | 22.7 | 4 |
| 2006 | Pittsburgh | 21.8 | 18.9 | 31 |
| 2004 | Tennessee | 21.8 | 22.0 | 13 |
| 2007 | Atlanta | 21.8 | 21.5 | 20 |
| 2006 | Miami | 21.7 | 20.0 | 25 |
| 2006 | Arizona | 21.6 | 21.8 | 3 |
Now consider instead the three hardest schedule for each year. The numbers play out in the same kind of way. Average going in is 20.4 points per game. But after the smoke clears, it’s risen to 21.4 points.
Recall that the easy average ended up being 22.4, so the overall average is likely about 21.9. So we’re down to talking about an estimated half of an NFL point per game. That’s within about 2 percent of what you would expect.
Not a real big difference.
There is that slight twist, though, than when you pick from easiest schedules, you’re more likely to maybe get an easy schedule. Of the “easy” schedules, there was the 15-5 ratio of easy (top-5) versus hard (bottom-5) schedules. And with these 39 hard schedules, there’s a 1-12 ratio of top-5 versus bottom-5 schedules.
If you expand out to top-10 vs. bottom-10 schedules, these 39 easy points have a 21-6 ratio, while the hardest schedules are almost the exact flip – 6-19.
But I think our fantasy resources are better spent focusing on who’s winning jobs, who’s really looking good in the preseason games, and whatnot.
| HARDEST SCHEDULES SINCE 2003 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Exp | Act | Rnk |
| 2007 | Buffalo | 18.9 | 22.1 | 9 |
| 2006 | Detroit | 18.9 | 20.5 | 19 |
| 2004 | Cincinnati | 19.0 | 19.3 | 31 |
| 2003 | New Orleans | 19.1 | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2006 | Tampa Bay | 19.5 | 20.5 | 20 |
| 2007 | NY Jets | 19.5 | 21.7 | 16 |
| 2007 | Miami | 19.5 | 21.6 | 17 |
| 2004 | Miami | 19.6 | 20.4 | 28 |
| 2003 | Washington | 19.6 | 19.4 | 30 |
| 2006 | Oakland | 19.7 | 21.1 | 11 |
| 2004 | Pittsburgh | 19.8 | 20.2 | 30 |
| 2003 | Atlanta | 19.9 | 20.2 | 22 |
| 2010 | Cincinnati | 20.1 | 19.8 | 32 |
| 2010 | Cleveland | 20.2 | 20.7 | 28 |
| 2010 | Miami | 20.3 | 20.8 | 27 |
| 2005 | New Orleans | 20.4 | 20.3 | 23 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 20.4 | 22.8 | 14 |
| 2008 | Detroit | 20.5 | 20.6 | 26 |
| 2009 | Miami | 20.5 | 22.3 | 17 |
| 2005 | Kansas City | 20.6 | 20.7 | 16 |
| 2005 | NY Giants | 20.6 | 21.2 | 6 |
| 2015 | Cincinnati | 20.7 | 22.4 | 21 |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | 20.7 | 19.2 | 32 |
| 2012 | Baltimore | 20.8 | 22.2 | 25 |
| 2015 | Pittsburgh | 20.8 | 21.3 | 32 |
| 2012 | Buffalo | 20.8 | 22.3 | 23 |
| 2008 | Indianapolis | 20.9 | 21.3 | 24 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 20.9 | 23.1 | 9 |
| 2009 | NY Jets | 20.9 | 21.4 | 22 |
| 2009 | Denver | 21.0 | 22.6 | 15 |
| 2015 | San Francisco | 21.1 | 23.3 | 11 |
| 2011 | Denver | 21.1 | 23.4 | 7 |
| 2011 | Minnesota | 21.1 | 23.7 | 4 |
| 2013 | St. Louis | 21.2 | 21.6 | 29 |
| 2016 | New England | 21.2 | ? | ? |
| 2016 | San Francisco | 21.2 | ? | ? |
| 2013 | New Orleans | 21.4 | 22.0 | 28 |
| 2013 | Baltimore | 21.4 | 24.5 | 9 |
| 2016 | Miami | 21.4 | ? | ? |
| 2014 | Denver | 21.5 | 20.9 | 31 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 21.8 | 20.8 | 32 |
| 2014 | St. Louis | 22.3 | 21.8 | 27 |
—Ian Allan