It's tough for rookie tight ends to make an impact, as we've discussed in the past. But what about the players who put up quality receiving numbers in their final year of college -- like say Hunter Henry. Are those players any more or less likely to be fantasy-worthy in their initial seasons?
Henry put up 739 receiving yards at Arkansas last season. Since 2000, only 11 tight ends drafted in the first three rounds had more in their final years of college. Only one of those players went on to even reach 500 yards or 5 TDs in their rookie seasons.
Expanding the sample set to players who went over 400 yards in that final year of college (like new Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper), there were 57 such players drafted in the first three rounds since 2000. A total of 9 of those players, so roughly 1 in 6, ranked among the top 20 fantasy tight ends (1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for touchdowns) as rookies. Still pretty long odds for Henry and Hooper, but who knows. Maybe one is the next Jeremy Shockey.
The table below shows all tight ends drafted in the first three rounds since 2000, sorted by receiving yards in their final year of college. The players who ranked in the top 20 among fantasy tight ends as rookies are in bold.
ROOKIE TES, ROUNDS 1-3, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE NUMBERS | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Rd | Pk | Player | Yds(1) | TD(1) | Rk | Yds(Col.) | TD(Col.) |
2014 | 2 | 49 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 345 | 2 | 30th | 1352 | 7 |
2009 | 3 | 98 | Chase Coffman, Cin. | 0 | 0 | 99th | 987 | 10 |
2014 | 1 | 10 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 248 | 1 | 45th | 973 | 3 |
2010 | 1 | 21 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 471 | 4 | 21st | 950 | 14 |
2013 | 2 | 35 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 469 | 4 | 20th | 898 | 6 |
2008 | 1 | 30 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 535 | 3 | 14th | 881 | 7 |
2008 | 2 | 48 | Fred Davis, Wash. | 27 | 0 | 82nd | 881 | 8 |
2006 | 1 | 6 | Vernon Davis, S.F. | 265 | 3 | 23rd | 871 | 6 |
2002 | 1 | 21 | Daniel Graham, N.E. | 150 | 1 | 44th | 753 | 6 |
2003 | 1 | 24 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 340 | 1 | 25th | 742 | 4 |
2006 | 1 | 28 | Marcedes Lewis, Jac. | 126 | 1 | 45th | 741 | 10 |
2016 | 2 | 35 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | ? | ? | ? | 739 | 3 |
2004 | 3 | 81 | Chris Cooley, Wash. | 314 | 6 | 14th | 732 | 6 |
2013 | 3 | 63 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 99th | 722 | 8 |
2005 | 3 | 71 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 367 | 2 | 21st | 706 | 3 |
2013 | 1 | 21 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 445 | 2 | 29th | 685 | 4 |
2015 | 3 | 68 | Clive Walford, Oak. | 329 | 3 | 30th | 676 | 7 |
2010 | 2 | 42 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 546 | 10 | 5th | 672 | 10 |
2006 | 2 | 61 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 286 | 4 | 20th | 670 | 9 |
2012 | 2 | 34 | Coby Fleener, Ind. | 281 | 2 | 38th | 667 | 10 |
2011 | 2 | 47 | Lance Kendricks, St.L. | 352 | 0 | 38th | 663 | 5 |
2004 | 2 | 61 | Kris Wilson, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 99th | 643 | 9 |
2004 | 2 | 40 | Ben Troupe, Tenn. | 329 | 1 | 30th | 638 | 5 |
2003 | 3 | 76 | Mike Seidman, Car. | 35 | 0 | 81st | 631 | 5 |
2001 | 1 | 31 | Todd Heap, Balt. | 206 | 1 | 35th | 617 | 3 |
2014 | 3 | 98 | Richard Rodgers, G.B. | 225 | 2 | 40th | 608 | 1 |
2004 | 1 | 6 | Kellen Winslow, Clev. | 50 | 0 | 83rd | 605 | 1 |
2012 | 3 | 64 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 521 | 3 | 23rd | 598 | 8 |
2008 | 2 | 61 | Martellus Bennett, Dall. | 283 | 4 | 24th | 587 | 4 |
2003 | 2 | 41 | Bennie Joppru, Hou. | 0 | 0 | 99th | 579 | 5 |
2014 | 3 | 99 | Crockett Gillmore, Balt. | 121 | 1 | 57th | 577 | 2 |
2006 | 2 | 53 | Anthony Fasano, Dall. | 126 | 0 | 58th | 576 | 2 |
2008 | 3 | 91 | Jermichael Finley, G.B. | 74 | 1 | 56th | 575 | 2 |
2014 | 2 | 52 | Troy Niklas, Ariz. | 38 | 0 | 94th | 573 | 6 |
2009 | 3 | 89 | Jared Cook, Tenn. | 74 | 0 | 72nd | 573 | 3 |
2015 | 2 | 55 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 268 | 1 | 43rd | 569 | 8 |
2000 | 1 | 14 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 363 | 1 | 22nd | 565 | 5 |
2007 | 3 | 77 | Matt Spaeth, Pitt. | 34 | 3 | 47th | 564 | 4 |
2013 | 3 | 85 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 499 | 3 | 23rd | 559 | 3 |
2010 | 3 | 70 | Ed Dickson, Balt. | 152 | 1 | 51st | 551 | 6 |
2002 | 3 | 88 | Chris Baker, NYJ | 14 | 0 | 84th | 548 | 4 |
2013 | 2 | 47 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 134 | 2 | 50th | 543 | 6 |
2005 | 1 | 30 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 459 | 6 | 11th | 541 | 5 |
2011 | 3 | 69 | Rob Housler, Ariz. | 133 | 0 | 57th | 519 | 4 |
2002 | 1 | 14 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 894 | 2 | 3rd | 519 | 7 |
2003 | 3 | 91 | Visante Shiancoe, NYG | 56 | 2 | 60th | 510 | 5 |
2000 | 1 | 27 | Anthony Becht, NYJ | 144 | 2 | 37th | 510 | 5 |
2003 | 3 | 69 | Jason Witten , Dall. | 347 | 1 | 23rd | 493 | 5 |
2002 | 2 | 55 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 409 | 2 | 17th | 492 | 7 |
2007 | 1 | 31 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 391 | 2 | 21st | 489 | 1 |
2007 | 2 | 38 | Zach Miller, Oak. | 444 | 3 | 16th | 484 | 4 |
2009 | 1 | 20 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 346 | 2 | 25th | 472 | 0 |
2006 | 2 | 46 | Joe Klopfenstein, St.L. | 226 | 1 | 37th | 468 | 4 |
2003 | 2 | 63 | Teyo Johnson, Oak. | 128 | 1 | 46th | 467 | 8 |
2013 | 2 | 55 | Vance McDonald, S.F. | 119 | 0 | 63rd | 458 | 2 |
2014 | 2 | 38 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 221 | 2 | 42nd | 450 | 8 |
2016 | 3 | 81 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | 438 | 6 |
--Andy Richardson