It's tough for rookie tight ends to make an impact, as we've discussed in the past. But what about the players who put up quality receiving numbers in their final year of college -- like say Hunter Henry. Are those players any more or less likely to be fantasy-worthy in their initial seasons?

Henry put up 739 receiving yards at Arkansas last season. Since 2000, only 11 tight ends drafted in the first three rounds had more in their final years of college. Only one of those players went on to even reach 500 yards or 5 TDs in their rookie seasons.

Expanding the sample set to players who went over 400 yards in that final year of college (like new Atlanta tight end Austin Hooper), there were 57 such players drafted in the first three rounds since 2000. A total of 9 of those players, so roughly 1 in 6, ranked among the top 20 fantasy tight ends (1 point for every 10 yards, 6 points for touchdowns) as rookies. Still pretty long odds for Henry and Hooper, but who knows. Maybe one is the next Jeremy Shockey.

The table below shows all tight ends drafted in the first three rounds since 2000, sorted by receiving yards in their final year of college. The players who ranked in the top 20 among fantasy tight ends as rookies are in bold.

ROOKIE TES, ROUNDS 1-3, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE NUMBERS
YearRdPkPlayerYds(1)TD(1)RkYds(Col.)TD(Col.)
2014249Jace Amaro, NYJ345230th13527
2009398Chase Coffman, Cin.0099th98710
2014110Eric Ebron, Det.248145th9733
2010121Jermaine Gresham, Cin.471421st95014
2013235Zach Ertz, Phil.469420th8986
2008130Dustin Keller, NYJ535314th8817
2008248Fred Davis, Wash.27082nd8818
200616Vernon Davis, S.F.265323rd8716
2002121Daniel Graham, N.E.150144th7536
2003124Dallas Clark, Ind.340125th7424
2006128Marcedes Lewis, Jac.126145th74110
2016235Hunter Henry, S.D.???7393
2004381Chris Cooley, Wash.314614th7326
2013363Travis Kelce, K.C.0099th7228
2005371Alex Smith, T.B.367221st7063
2013121Tyler Eifert, Cin.445229th6854
2015368Clive Walford, Oak.329330th6767
2010242Rob Gronkowski, N.E.546105th67210
2006261Tony Scheffler, Den.286420th6709
2012234Coby Fleener, Ind.281238th66710
2011247Lance Kendricks, St.L.352038th6635
2004261Kris Wilson, K.C.0099th6439
2004240Ben Troupe, Tenn.329130th6385
2003376Mike Seidman, Car.35081st6315
2001131Todd Heap, Balt.206135th6173
2014398Richard Rodgers, G.B.225240th6081
200416Kellen Winslow, Clev.50083rd6051
2012364Dwayne Allen, Ind.521323rd5988
2008261Martellus Bennett, Dall.283424th5874
2003241Bennie Joppru, Hou.0099th5795
2014399Crockett Gillmore, Balt.121157th5772
2006253Anthony Fasano, Dall.126058th5762
2008391Jermichael Finley, G.B.74156th5752
2014252Troy Niklas, Ariz.38094th5736
2009389Jared Cook, Tenn.74072nd5733
2015255Maxx Williams, Balt.268143rd5698
2000114Bubba Franks, G.B.363122nd5655
2007377Matt Spaeth, Pitt.34347th5644
2013385Jordan Reed, Wash.499323rd5593
2010370Ed Dickson, Balt.152151st5516
2002388Chris Baker, NYJ14084th5484
2013247Gavin Escobar, Dall.134250th5436
2005130Heath Miller, Pitt.459611th5415
2011369Rob Housler, Ariz.133057th5194
2002114Jeremy Shockey, NYG89423rd5197
2003391Visante Shiancoe, NYG56260th5105
2000127Anthony Becht, NYJ144237th5105
2003369Jason Witten , Dall.347123rd4935
2002255Doug Jolley, Oak.409217th4927
2007131Greg Olsen, Chi.391221st4891
2007238Zach Miller, Oak.444316th4844
2009120Brandon Pettigrew, Det.346225th4720
2006246Joe Klopfenstein, St.L.226137th4684
2003263Teyo Johnson, Oak.128146th4678
2013255Vance McDonald, S.F.119063rd4582
2014238Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B.221242nd4508
2016381Austin Hooper, Atl.???4386

--Andy Richardson