If I had to guess, I would say that some quarterback probably will throw 40-plus touchdowns this year. That’s just the way the game is played nowadays. With the kind of numbers that are being put up, it was a surprise nobody threw more than 36 touchdowns last year.

The growth in this area is pretty remarkable.

In the first five years of this century, 11 quarterbacks threw at least 30 TDs in a season. But in the last five years, 35 touchdowns have thrown at least 30. That includes a record 11 last year alone.

30-PLUS TOUCHDOWNS (2000-04)
YearPlayerPctYardsTDInt
2004Peyton Manning, Ind.68%4,5574910
2004Daunte Culpepper, Minn.69%4,7173911
2001Kurt Warner, St.L.69%4,8303622
2000Daunte Culpepper, Minn.63%3,9373316
2000Peyton Manning, Ind.63%4,4133315
2001Jeff Garcia, S.F.63%3,5383212
2001Brett Favre, G.B.62%3,9213215
2003Brett Favre, G.B.65%3,3613221
2000Jeff Garcia, S.F.63%4,2783110
2004Donovan McNabb, Phil.64%3,875318
2004Brett Favre, G.B.64%4,0883017
30-PLUS TOUCHDOWNS (2001-2015)
YearPlayerPctYardsTDInt
2013Peyton Manning, Den.68%5,4775510
2011Drew Brees, N.O.71%5,4764614
2011Aaron Rodgers, G.B.68%4,643456
2012Drew Brees, N.O.63%5,1774319
2011Matthew Stafford, Det.63%5,0384116
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.62%4,7614016
2011Tom Brady, N.E.66%5,2353912
2012Aaron Rodgers, G.B.67%4,295398
2013Drew Brees, N.O.69%5,1623912
2014Peyton Manning, Den.66%4,7273915
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.66%4,381385
2012Peyton Manning, Den.69%4,6593711
2015Tom Brady, N.E.64%4,770367
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.59%4,4283518
2015Cam Newton, Car.60%3,8373510
2015Carson Palmer, Ariz.64%4,6713511
2015Eli Manning, NYG63%4,4363514
2012Tom Brady, N.E.63%4,827348
2014Tony Romo, Dall.70%3,705349
2015Russell Wilson, Sea.68%4,024348
2013Andy Dalton, Cin.62%4,2933320
2014Drew Brees, N.O.69%4,9523317
2014Tom Brady, N.E.64%4,109339
2012Matt Ryan, Atl.69%4,7193214
2013Philip Rivers, S.D.69%4,4783211
2014Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.67%4,952329
2015Derek Carr, Oak.61%3,9873213
2015Matthew Stafford, Det.67%4,2623213
2015Drew Brees, N.O.68%4,8703211
2011Tony Romo, Dall.66%4,1843110
2013Tony Romo, Dall.64%3,8283110
2014Philip Rivers, S.D.66%4,2863118
2015Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ60%3,9053115
2015Aaron Rodgers, G.B.61%3,821318
2014Eli Manning, NYG63%4,4103014

—Ian Allan