I’m doing another one of those Fanex drafts. They can be a useful tool for looking back after a few rounds and considering the different routes you go with your picks. And with us being six rounds in, I’ll do that now.
Fanex, recall, uses a PPR format. There are 12 teams, and the one notable mini-twist is that there are three starting wide receivers and a flex player. There are more good receivers than running backs in this kind of a system, so the most likely course is to wind up starting four wide receivers and only two running backs.
You can get good quarterbacks and tight ends later on, so I went into this draft under the premise that I would select four wide receivers and two running backs with my first six picks. I would only take one of the elite quarterbacks or tight ends – Newton, Gronk, Luck, Olsen – if the price tag was really favorable. Because if you select one of those guys, the talent tends to disappear at those harder-to-fill RB and WR spots.
I drew the 11th drafting slot (which is a crappy one) and it played out this way …
| FANEX DRAFT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Owner | Pick | Pos | Player |
| Bo Mitchell | 1.01 | WR | Antonio Brown |
| Rito-Nazarek | 1.02 | WR | Odell Beckham Jr. |
| John Georgopoulos | 1.03 | RB | Todd Gurley |
| Tony Holm | 1.04 | WR | Julio Jones |
| Brady Tinker | 1.05 | RB | David Johnson |
| Matt Pitzer | 1.06 | WR | DeAndre Hopkins |
| McClory-Berg | 1.07 | RB | Adrian Peterson |
| Duane Cahill | 1.08 | WR | A.J. Green |
| Matt Schauf | 1.09 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott |
| Scott Fish | 1.10 | RB | Lamar Miller |
| Ian Allan | 1.11 | WR | Keenan Allen |
| Mike MacGregor | 1.12 | WR | Allen Robinson |
| Mike MacGregor | 2.01 | WR | Dez Bryant |
| Ian Allan | 2.02 | RB | Mark Ingram |
| Scott Fish | 2.03 | RB | Jamaal Charles |
| Matt Schauf | 2.04 | TE | Rob Gronkowski |
| Duane Cahill | 2.05 | WR | Jordy Nelson |
| McClory-Berg | 2.06 | WR | Brandon Marshall |
| Matt Pitzer | 2.07 | WR | Brandin Cooks |
| Brady Tinker | 2.08 | WR | Alshon Jeffery |
| Tony Holm | 2.09 | RB | LeVeon Bell |
| John Georgopoulos | 2.10 | RB | Devonta Freeman |
| Rito-Nazarek | 2.11 | RB | Doug Martin |
| Bo Mitchell | 2.12 | RB | Eddie Lacy |
| Bo Mitchell | 3.01 | RB | Thomas Rawls |
| Rito-Nazarek | 3.02 | WR | Amari Cooper |
| John Georgopoulos | 3.03 | WR | T.Y. Hilton |
| Tony Holm | 3.04 | QB | Cam Newton |
| Brady Tinker | 3.05 | WR | Mike Evans |
| McClory-Berg | 3.07 | WR | Kelvin Benjamin |
| Matt Pitzer | 3.07 | QB | Andrew Luck |
| Duane Cahill | 3.08 | WR | Demaryius Thomas |
| Matt Schauf | 3.09 | WR | Randall Cobb |
| Scott Fish | 3.10 | WR | Sammy Watkins |
| Ian Allan | 3.11 | WR | Donte Moncrief |
| Mike MacGregor | 3.12 | RB | C.J. Anderson |
| Mike MacGregor | 4.01 | RB | DeMarco Murray |
| Ian Allan | 4.02 | WR | Jeremy Maclin |
| Scott Fish | 4.03 | RB | Giovani Bernard |
| Matt Schauf | 4.04 | WR | Golden Tate |
| Duane Cahill | 4.05 | WR | Jarvis Landry |
| McClory-Berg | 4.06 | RB | Jeremy Hill |
| Matt Pitzer | 4.07 | RB | Latavius Murray |
| Brady Tinker | 4.08 | RB | LeSean McCoy |
| Tony Holm | 4.09 | TE | Jordan Reed |
| John Georgopoulos | 4.10 | WR | Eric Decker |
| Rito-Nazarek | 4.11 | RB | Matt Forte |
| Bo Mitchell | 4.12 | WR | Julian Edelman |
| Bo Mitchell | 5.01 | QB | Aaron Rodgers |
| Rito-Nazarek | 5.02 | WR | Doug Baldwin |
| John Georgopoulos | 5.03 | WR | Allen Hurns |
| Tony Holm | 5.04 | RB | Carlos Hyde |
| Brady Tinker | 5.05 | RB | Danny Woodhead |
| Matt Pitzer | 5.06 | WR | Michael Floyd |
| McClory-Berg | 5.07 | QB | Russell Wilson |
| Duane Cahill | 5.08 | TE | Greg Olsen |
| Matt Schauf | 5.09 | RB | Matt Jones |
| Scott Fish | 5.10 | WR | Tyler Lockett |
| Ian Allan | 5.11 | RB | Duke Johnson Jr. |
| Mike MacGregor | 5.12 | WR | Larry Fitzgerald |
| Mike MacGregor | 6.01 | WR | DeSean Jackson |
| Ian Allan | 6.02 | WR | Jordan Matthews |
| Scott Fish | 6.03 | TE | Coby Fleener |
| Matt Schauf | 6.04 | WR | DeVante Parker |
| Duane Cahill | 6.05 | RB | Dion Lewis |
| McClory-Berg | 6.06 | WR | Kevin White |
| Matt Pitzer | 6.07 | WR | Emmanuel Sanders |
| Brady Tinker | 6.08 | WR | John Brown |
| Tony Holm | 6.09 | RB | Jeremy Langford |
| John Georgopoulos | 6.10 | RB | Ryan Mathews |
In the post-mortem, we can now look back and see if my drafting strategy was sound.
I started with Keenan Allen (277 points), Mark Ingram (255), Donte Moncrief (257), Jeremy Maclin (248), Duke Johnson Jr. (182) and Jordan Matthews (226). That’s a combined 1,446 points. Could the team have been strengthened by addressing WRs and RBs in a different order?
I was tempted, for example, to open with two wide receivers. Maybe Dez Bryant and Allen. But my feeling was that had I gone that route, there wouldn’t be a running back on the board worthy of selecting at either 3.11 or 4.02. Had I gone with the double WR opening and then followed it with two other WRs, I believe it would have gone this way: Bryant (275), Allen (277), Watkins or Maclin (251 avg), Moncrief (257), Duke Johnson Jr. (182) and Matt Jones or Ryan Mathews (175 avg). That’s 1,417 points, which is moving 29 points in the wrong direction.
At 3.11, there was a pretty good running back value there. LeSean McCoy, who seems to be in really good shape this year; he’s the #9 back on my board. So let’s look at the WR-WR opening, followed by McCoy and a WR, followed by a WR and Duke. Bryant (275), Allen (277), McCoy (215), Moncrief (257), Duke (182), Matthews (226). That’s 1,432. Closer, but 14 points short of the route I took.
I’m not crazy about Duke Johnson Jr., and there were good wide receivers available at 5.11 and 6.02. So I also could have looked at Ingram at 2.02, McCoy at 3.11, and WRs with those other four picks. That one scores out as Allen (277), Ingram (255), McCoy (215), Moncrief (257), Fitzgerald (234), Matthews (226). That’s 1,464 points, and in hindsight that’s the way I should have gone. That’s 18 more points than what I wound up with.
During the draft, of course, you don’t know which players are going to fall. Every group of guys is different. And there’s also the reality that some players with break out or get hurt. Those big, overriding themes will dominate over the parsing of a few projected points here and there. But for this one, looks like I could have drafted better.
—Ian Allan