I posted the poll question earlier in the week, asking which offense would score the fewest touchdowns this year. The 49ers, I was surprised, finished in first (well, last). To me that won’t happen, given Chip Kelly’s ability to run an up-tempo offense and construct a viable running game.

But if you look at the strength of schedule charts, they support the idea that San Francisco will struggle. Their 16 games are against teams that allowed an average of 20.3 points per game last year – over a point (per game) fewer than any other schedule in the last. Hardest schedule against the run? 49ers. Hardest schedule against the pass? 49ers.

So maybe the readers are onto something on this one. I don’t personally agree. Given the coach and his system, I think they’ll outscore at least 3-4 other teams. The Eagles, Rams and Bears come to mind as candidates. But I will agree that scheduling could be a factor.

I am re-printing all of the strength of schedule charts below. The SOS chart on page 169 of the magazine, as I pointed out two weeks ago, is messed up. I somehow crossed some wires when working with the data relating to the Rams moving from St. Louis to Los Angeles. Those numbers are all off, and that fouled up the entire thing. Sorry. The corrected numbers appear below.

Starting with the basic chart (using wins and losses). It shows the Bengals, Titans and Packers projecting to play the league’s easiest schedules. The Saints, Falcons, Seahawks and Rams on paper should play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WINS (Weeks 1-17)
TeamWLT
Cincinnati115141.449
Tennessee116140.453
Green Bay117139.457
Chicago118138.461
NY Giants118138.461
Pittsburgh118122.461
Detroit119137.465
Dallas120136.469
Philadelphia120136.469
Jacksonville121135.473
Indianapolis122134.477
Cleveland123133.480
Washington123133.480
Baltimore124132.484
Houston124132.484
Minnesota125131.488
Miami127129.496
Denver129127.504
San Diego130126.508
Carolina131125.512
Buffalo133123.520
Kansas City133123.520
Oakland133123.520
New England134122.523
Arizona135121.527
San Francisco135105.527
NY Jets136120.531
Tampa Bay139117.543
Los Angeles140116.547
Seattle140116.547
Atlanta142114.555
New Orleans143113.559

Some prefer to look not as wins and losses but defenses – points scored.

Based on how defenses played last year, you would expect the Cowboys will see the most soft defenses. Four other teams are a half point back, tying at 23.7 points per game, on average –Minnesota, Washington, Chicago, Detroit.

The 49ers project to play by far the league’s hardest schedule (in terms of defenses), coming in at 20.3 points per game on average – over a point below everyone else. The Patriots and Steelers tie for next-to-last.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS
TeamAvg
Dallas24.2
Minnesota23.7
Washington23.7
Chicago23.7
Detroit23.7
Tennessee23.6
Cincinnati23.6
Green Bay23.6
NY Giants23.5
Houston23.3
San Diego23.1
Baltimore23.1
Denver23.0
Kansas City23.0
Philadelphia22.9
Jacksonville22.9
Carolina22.8
Atlanta22.8
Indianapolis22.7
Cleveland22.6
Los Angeles22.4
Tampa Bay22.3
Oakland22.3
Seattle22.2
Miami22.1
Buffalo22.0
New Orleans21.8
Arizona21.8
NY Jets21.7
Pittsburgh21.4
New England21.4
San Francisco20.3

Getting more specific, here are the rushing projections for the upcoming season. If defenses play just the way they did last year, Chicago, Minnesota and Washington will see the easiest run schedules. That’s using 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, and 6 points for each rushing touchdown. Figures are of the per-game variety.

The 49ers, Patriots and Steelers project to see the hardest run defenses.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Chicago116.8216.5
Minnesota114.7916.1
Washington116.7316.0
Green Bay113.7816.0
Tennessee113.7916.0
Detroit118.7015.9
Dallas117.7115.9
NY Giants117.6815.8
Philadelphia112.7615.8
Tampa Bay107.7915.5
Carolina108.7715.4
Houston109.7415.4
Jacksonville110.7115.3
Denver107.7515.2
Cincinnati112.6715.2
Los Angeles104.7715.1
Seattle109.7015.1
Atlanta107.7215.1
Arizona108.7015.0
San Diego106.7315.0
New Orleans102.7914.9
Oakland104.7414.8
Baltimore109.6414.8
Indianapolis105.6814.6
NY Jets107.6414.6
Kansas City102.7114.5
Cleveland106.6414.5
Miami106.6414.4
Buffalo104.6214.1
Pittsburgh104.6014.0
New England103.6113.9
San Francisco96.6313.4

Finally, I offer the passing projections. The Cowboys, Ravens and Bengals project to see the softest pass defenses. (This is built off 1 point for every 10 passing yards, plus 6 points for each TD pass.)

The 49ers, Saints and Steelers project to see the hardest pass defenses. That’s notable, with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger having averaged more passing yards per game than any other quarterbacks over the last two years.

With six games against the Seahawks, Cardinals and Rams, San Francisco took a schedule beating all along – last in points, rushing and passing.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Dallas2691.8938.2
Baltimore2711.7537.6
Cincinnati2651.8237.5
NY Giants2641.7937.1
Detroit2611.7736.7
Cleveland2651.6836.6
Washington2631.7136.6
Chicago2611.6836.2
Minnesota2571.7136.0
Kansas City2601.6636.0
Philadelphia2611.6335.8
Green Bay2561.7035.8
San Diego2561.7035.8
Denver2601.6335.8
NY Jets2601.6235.8
Atlanta2591.6435.8
Seattle2631.5835.7
Miami2611.6135.7
Buffalo2621.5835.7
Carolina2581.6435.7
Tennessee2561.6835.6
Houston2571.6435.6
Los Angeles2571.5735.2
Arizona2591.5535.2
Indianapolis2531.6435.2
New England2551.5935.0
Jacksonville2491.6734.9
Tampa Bay2551.5334.7
Oakland2501.5734.4
Pittsburgh2471.6234.4
New Orleans2541.4534.1
San Francisco2361.4632.3

—Ian Allan