Sometimes rookie quarterbacks who slip to the latter part of the first round end up washing out quickly. The Browns, alas, have selected three such quarterbacks in recent years: Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel. But things look good so far with Paxton Lynch.
The Broncos patiently passed on chances to trade for Colin Kaepernick and (probably) Sam Bradford, and chose not to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick. While the Rams and Eagles mortgaged the future to move up to the top of the draft for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, they made a much smaller deal to move up from 31 to 26 to select Lynch.
Lynch played all of the fourth exhibition game last night and looked decent, throwing a pair of touchdowns (and also a Pick Six). Too soon to say he's the quarterback of the future in Denver, but early signs are promising. He won't open as the starter, but he'll probably start games this season.
In contrast, Goff has looked a mess with the Rams. Wentz got hurt for the Eagles. Hard to imagine the Rams are feeling great about their move up so far, while the Eagles haven't seen enough from Wentz to feel overly confident about putting him in the lineup any time soon.
There have been some successes drafted between picks 20 and 40 in recent years, most notably Andy Dalton, Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater (it seems). Maybe Lynch is on his way to joining that group. Neither Goff nor Wentz, in contrast, has looked as promising as last year's top-2 quarterback picks (Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota).
Quarterbacks selected in the top 40 in the last decade are shown below. Clear hits are in bold. Note that there have been nearly as many hits outside the top 10 (like Lynch) as in the top 5 (like Goff and Wentz).
| QBS SELECTED IN TOP 40, 2006-PRESENT | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pick | Player |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, L.A. |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. |
| 2011 | 35 | Andy Dalton, Cin. |
| 2014 | 36 | Derek Carr, Oak. |
| 2011 | 36 | Colin Kaepernick, S.F. |
| 2007 | 36 | Kevin Kolb, Phil. |
| 2013 | 39 | Geno Smith, NYJ |
| 2007 | 40 | John Beck, Mia. |
--Andy Richardson