Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What to make of San Diego's receiving corps post-Allen. Is it time to cut Jay Ajayi? Is Adrian Peterson finished? And what is the value of Marshawn Lynch?
Question 1
I would like to hear your thoughts on what you think will happen after the Allen injury in San Diego. Does Benjamin become the #1 WR by default now where it can be expected for him to average 6-8 catches a game (as happened last week)? Or do you expect a similar role for him as before with either Williams or Inman stepping up?
Jason Kurvers (EAU CLAIRE, WI)
Tyrell Williams, I think, will fill the old Malcom Floyd role in that offense. That’s how they were using him in Kansas City, even before Allen got hurt. He’ll line up outside and run mostly vertical routes. He’s got the big body and long speed, and Philip Rivers has had some success with those kind of guys – Floyd and Vincent Jackson. Benjamin is a big part. He’ll catch plenty of passes. Entering the season, I expected him to run a lot of vertical routes (like Floyd), but he caught more short passes in the opener. He’s quick, and maybe he can do some stuff after the catch. But Benjamin is really thin and small. He can work the middle of the field like Allen did, and I don’t know if he can stay healthy. So I think Dontrelle Inman will be a key guy. I think they’ll look for him to run a lot of the slant routes that are key in that offense. Allen and Stevie Johnson are both out for the year, so I think they’ll want Inman to pick up the slack. Inman ain’t no Allen, of course, but he might be as good as Johnson. He had a couple of good games late last year – 5 catches and a touchdown at Jacksonville, and 8 catches and a touchdown at Oakland. In a 12-team PPR league, I believe Inman should be on a roster. Additionally, the Chargers can throw a ton of passes to Danny Woodhead. He catches it really well, and with him coming out of the backfield, it’s hard for defenses to keep track of him. They’ve also got Antonio Gates, who’ll probably wind up in the Hall of Fame, but I’m not sure how much he has left. At Kansas City, it seemed like he was hardly even in the progression. He caught 3 passes for 20 yards. On a lot of plays – most plays – it seemed like he was jogging off the line knowing that the ball wasn’t going to be coming to him. I imagine Gates will still be a big piece of their red-zone offense, but I don’t envision him returning to yesteryear and catching a ton of balls.
Question 2
What value does Jay Ajayi have at this point?
Jay Monahan (Cincinnati, OH)
He might be worth a roster spot in a 12-team league. Maybe at some point he gets in the lineup and starts performing. They have plenty of talent on the offensive line, and Arian Foster has always had problems with injuries. Foster showed up at practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. But Ajayi isn’t a guy I would want on my team. I had him on one or two teams, and I released him this week to pick up other options. I think it makes more sense, for example, to carry Kenjon Barner. That is, I think it’s more likely that Ryan Mathews gets hurt, allowing Barner to post some serviceable games, than that Ajayi becomes a viable starter for the Dolphins. Honestly, I’m not sure if he’s even one of the top 3 running backs on that team. They’ve also got Isaiah Pead and Kenyan Drake.
Question 3
Geez ... a rather inauspicious start to your season rankings. What a TERRIBLE READ on Kelvin Benjamin!! The guy is HUGE and running all over the field ... oh, and can't be tackled. What were you guys looking at?
michael gasper (Wilton, CT)
Right now Benjamin is on pace to finish the season with 96 catches and 16 TDs. Ted Ginn Jr., Philly Brown and Devin Funchess are each on pace to finish with 16 catches, with no touchdowns. We’ll see if it ends up that way. My expectation is that they’ll use lots of formations with multiple receivers, and that Cam Newton will do a good job of spreading things around. I think Ginn will be their best deep threat (I think he’s a much better receiver now than he was two years ago). Funchess is a lot better than last year; I think he’ll also make some of those big-body catches in the red zone. But I will agree that Benjamin looked good. The whole offense looks really good, and he should have a big year. Disagree with the opinion that Benjamin can’t be tackled. He caught 6 passes last week, and he was tackled on 5 of them.
Question 4
Is Marshawn Lynch worth picking up and and holding until some starting back goes down? I don't Seattle would necessarily want him what with the preseason Christine Michael had.
DANIEL GOODLETT (Bonita, CA)
Seahawks hold his rights, but they appear to be set with Thomas Rawls and Michael. (Rawls is starting this week). If Lynch decides to play, they’ll either trade him or release him. I think it’s reasonable to hold onto Lynch for a couple of weeks, seeing if there’s any movement on his end towards a comeback. Not sure which teams might be interested in him or if he’d be willing to play outside the Bay Area. I believe he’s kind of a Raiders fan, and I don’t think the fit would be right with Chip Kelly. Right now, I don’t see Lynch as particularly likely to play, but I suppose he makes sense if you’re in a league with about 70 running backs are getting rostered.
Question 5
AP heading down hill or just a blip?
STEPHEN NORD (Jamestown, NY)
He’s not quite what he’s been in the past. I remember seeing him when he was a rookie in a preseason game against the Jets; he exploded through the line, ripped off a 43-yard run, and it was clear the NFL landscape had shifted. But that was nine years ago. Peterson is 31 now, and he’s lost some of that speed and power. Still one of the great backs, but not an insane difference-maker anymore who most certainly will have 3-4 games with 160-plus yards. But they’ll get him on track. He always sits out the preseason, and that might contribute to him tending to start slowly – maybe the timing isn’t quite right with his offensive line or whatever. Last year Peterson ran for only 31 yards in Week 1 at San Francisco, then went for 134 the next week against the Lions.
Question 6
What are your thoughts on Jeremy Kerley's PPR value going forward? He got a lot of targets on Monday - many of which I originally thought would be going to Vance McDonald. But I haven't seen much talk about him. Thanks, as always, for your thoughts.
Doug Alger (Allen, TX)
I noticed the same thing. Blaine Gabbert can’t seem to throw deep. He doesn’t have enough vision, timing or accuracy. So I think his mentality is to settle for the short passes – a lot of sideways passes and sort little flips into the middle of the field. He’s kind of a poor man’s Alex Smith. I don’t think this was a one-game blip; going forward, I think we’ll continue to see plenty of short passing in this offense. The main cogs, then, I think will be Kerley and Quinton Patton. I thought those two receivers looked pretty similar on Monday night. McDonald, I think, could be in that group, and Garrett Celek can also catch some of those kind of balls. When Shaun Draughn is in there, he’s a receiving threat – much better as a pass catcher than Carlos Hyde. They’ve also got Torrey Smith, of course, and he’s in theory their best receiver (I think he makes more money than those other five guys combined). But Smith is a vertical guy who wants to run fly routes and take the top off the defense. But Gabbert can’t make those throws, and Smith isn’t comfortable working in traffic. So in my opinion, Smith won’t be as good as Kerley or Patton in your league. Can’t say I’m excited about any of the receivers on this roster, but for PPR, Kerley and Patton seem to pass the warm body test. If you had to manage all 12 teams, they’d probably wind up on rosters somewhere.
Question 7
I need your help in evaluating a trade. I recently raided an ancient booby-trapped temple in Northern Peru and retrieved a golden idol. Now one of my league-mates is offering to trade me a whip for the idol straight-up. Although I know the idol is a lot more valuable overall, the whip would fill a SERIOUS need for me right now. What do you think? Appreciate your help!
BILL REHOR (Culver City, CA)
You’re going back a lot of years. I’d actually forgotten the idol-whip trade. Had to look it up on <ahref="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJ920fat50M" target=_new>YouTube.
Question 8
I've been using your information for years and I appreciate the work you put into it. My question is we start 2 RBs and I'm a little thin with Hyde, Foster, Jennings, Ware, Michael, so I was thinking of trading one of my WRs. League is standard scoring with .5 PPR, so I was thinking of trading for McCoy, Anderson, or Woodhead. Dez Bryant is my #3 WR and I could also deal Baldwin or Snead. What would be a reasonable trade for one of those 3 RBs? I was debating Bryant for McCoy or Foster/Snead for Anderson.
SCOTT PETERSEN (Lincoln, NE)
Bills weren’t real impressive last night. They look like a team that’s falling apart. So I wouldn’t be too interested in McCoy. C.J. Anderson looks good. I think they’re going to roll up big rushing numbers this year, and he’s their guy. And I believe Danny Woodhead will catch a ton of passes. I don’t have the rankings in front of me for half-PPR, but I’ve got Woodhead as a top-10 running back in full-PPR and a top-20 running back in standard, so probably somewhere around 15th.
Question 9
I need help at wideout. I currently have D.Thomas, Maclin, Fuller and Hogan. I also have Gordon and have been offered Donte Moncrief for him. Should I do it? I like having number #1 options on my team but I lost week one and Thomas is got hip issues.
DAVID ENGBERG (Saint Augusta, MN)
I don’t think you have wide receiver problems. I think you have five good ones. Hogan I’m not totally sold on yet, but I think he’ll get there. That’s a great offense, and he’s definitely a part of it. I would trade Gordon or Moncrief. Gordon is a better player, but Moncrief is also a talented receiver and is on a much better team. Entering Week 5, when Gordon is coming off his suspension, I would still rather have Moncrief at that time.
Question 10
You've been helping me for the best part of a couple of decades, thanks. I've got a flex decision to make in a half-point PPR. You are predicting similar stats for Jeremy Hill and Michael Floyd. Hill against Pittsburgh concerns me a bit, whereas Floyd's matchup seems a bit more favorable. All things being equal, would you agree that Floyd is the play Week 2, or am I over-estimating the value of the Pittsburgh D, and need to consider starting Hill over him?
Randy Jackson (Lone Tree, CO)
I have tried to put numbers to it. I have forecasted team totals for passing and rushing production, and then those numbers are divided proportionally among the players on those teams. That process indicates that there’s little difference between Hill and Floyd. (When comparing flex options across positions, you can access the stat projections by looking at either the custom rankings online or by the Excel file that can be downloaded.) Anyway, there isn’t much separation in the numbers, so in this case you just start the guy you have a better feeling about. Floyd makes some sense. John Brown doesn’t seem to be fully up and running yet, so Floyd is definitely the No. 2 option in that passing game (if not the No. 1 – he was better than Larry Fitzgerald for most of last year). Fitzgerald had the big opener, so Floyd seems kind of due for good game. Anyway, just pick one and don’t worry too much about it. If you pick 100 situations like this, you’re probably only going to be right on about half of them. Just hope that when you miss, it’s not the week that said decision also results in you losing your game.
Question 11
I have been offered Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett for DeSean Jackson and Travis Kelce. We are a TD only, keeper league that awards 3 points for TD receptions and doubles the points for TD receptions over 50 yards. The trade does correct a bye week conflict for both my TE and WR positions in weeks 5 and 9 respectively. Would you make this trade?
Patrick Kernan (Rome, NY)
I think Jackson’s going to have a huge year. Don’t know if it’s tied to him being in a contract year, but he seems to be in tip-top shape. I think he’s going to score at least a couple of touchdowns from long range, making him extremely valuable in your format. I like him more than Cobb, and I like Kelce more than Bennett.
Question 12
I hope you are ready for an amazingly ridiculous question. Due to some artful trading last year I gave away Fat Eddy for a 1st round pick which I turned into Zeke Elliott this year. So in a 12-team standard keeper league with huge rosters I have Elliott, Gurley and THEE David Johnson. And I can only start 2. I knew it would be this way each week and I tried to trade the pick for a stud WR but had no takers. So the question is. Would you simply have me follow the rankings each week? Even when they are only 1 or 2 spots different? And if you could look into your crystal ball and say which one to trade later. Perhaps after I get past the bye weeks to try and add scoring in other positions. Oh, by the way, I do consider myself a Cardinal fans. But Elliot running around in that blue 21 jersey looked like the 2nd coming of LT
GARY DETRICK (Carlsbad, NM)
I wouldn’t give any of those guys away. For now, I think you start the best two each week. Eventually you should be able to find a trading partner. And if not, this could be a problem that solves itself. There are bye weeks and poor matchups. The Rams look pretty dysfunctional on offense right now, so there could be a lot of weeks where you’re looking to sit down Gurley. And how likely is it that three workhorse tailbacks will all start 16 games? You get a hamstring, ankle or knee injury to any of these guys and you’re down to two.
Question 13
First-time writer, long-time reader(1995); I'm spinning the tires on a deal for D. Henry in exchange for Eli Rogers. It's a standard league; and I already own Edelman, Bryant, Cobb, Stills, and Dorsett. I'm low on backup running backs. What do you think?
Victor Rodriguez (Kanata, ON)
Rogers will catch some balls. He has some PPR value as a body who can be tossed in there. I actually picked him up to replace Keenan Allen in a league. But Rogers won't get on the field for your team. He would never start ahead of Edelman, Bryant or Cobb. And I think Stills and Dorsett might be pretty solid as well. So for you, Derrick Henry would have a much higher value. They've got some stuff to figure out in Tennessee, but Henry might develop into a reliable starting running back at some point.
Question 14
How are your season-long rankings affected by the performances put on by C.J. Anderson and Kelvin Benjamin in the season opener?
Christopher Eibl (Chicago, IL)
Revised rankings went out on Tuesday. I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me, but they both moved up. Strange to say, with the Broncos replacing Peyton Manning with Trevor Siemian, but I think that offense will be better this year. Siemian, I think, will be fine, and the running game is a lot better when they have a mobile quarterback in there who can line up under center.