There's a stampede in your league. A race to grab the most highly-coveted available assets that exist right now. They could be the key to a championship season, and the catalyst that puts money in your pocket.
And a few weeks ago, nobody wanted to have anything to do with them. But after one week of play, waiver wire garbage has turned to gold.
Somehow, the guys you passed over for 15 rounds (or more) look like potential saviors to your season. In reality, they're false prophets. To borrow a phrase from the late, great Dennis Green, they are who you thought they were. Maybe they can help your team, but you still have to consider the costs of picking them up.
In some leagues, owners have a fixed budget for free agents. It has to last the whole season, and the biggest temptation to spend is just after week 1. There's almost no season-long history, and you can expect competition and inflated prices. Nabbing the guys you want this week is a great way to bust your budget.
In other leagues, waiver priority doesn't reset each week. In other words, if you hang on to your position, you climb in the order. Eventually, you can use that priority on someone who might really make a difference. But if you grab onto the flavors of the week, you'll always be looking up at most of your league when waivers run. That could really cost you later in the year.
Now, I'm not saying to ignore the waiver wire after week 1. If you have Keenan Allen, what else can you do? You know you're not getting his replacement, but you need some depth. In a smaller league with a lot of talent available, you might not want to hang on to Chris Ivory. And in a quarterback-heavy league, replacing Robert Griffin III is a necessity. Anyone who starts could be worth picking up. Okay, maybe not Case Keenum, but you get the idea.
This week (and probably the first few of the season) there will be a mad scramble for marginal talent who aren't any more talented now than when you ignored them at your draft. Maybe their situation is a little better, and maybe your situation is a lot worse. Just be aware that there might be a cost to your impatience. In many cases, the best option is already on your roster. You drafted depth for a reason.
With that in mind, are you sure the guy you're ditching isn't worth a spot? If they were worth a draft pick in August, are you sure they're worthless in September? You might be costing yourself some valuable depth as well.
Of course, as the cost drops, so does the caution. If you don't have a free agent budget and your waiver wire resets each week, maybe it's worth a look. When possible, I try to leave one roster spot as a revolving door. I still think carefully before ditching a player, but that parking space isn't for Bentleys. It's for whatever jalopy looks good at that moment. In one league it was Markus Wheaton, then it was Pierre Garcon, and now it's Jeremy Kerley. I might not have that luxury once the bye weeks start, but I don't mind taking a stab at some value each week until then. And if another owner panics and ditches a good player, I have the pace to try and pick them up.
In another league I have that spot, but I'm using it for a backup tight end. With Julius Thomas and Dwayne Allen, I don't feel comfortable enough with either of them to let one go. So while I might be tempted to pick up somebody, I might just stick with the tight end depth. Even though the waivers reset each week, it's not worth the cost right now.
Just like football players, I think fantasy football owners hit their stride after the first couple of weeks. They're happy to shake off the rust, as J.J. Watt said after Sunday's game. I hope we're all as effective as he is, and I think that means resisting the temptation to make roster changes unless they're really necessary. At the very least, consider what (and who) you're giving up, and make sure the potential value is worth the price you're paying for it. Good luck this week.
How careful are you with your roster changes? Do you always make moves every week? Who are you picking up? Share your thoughts below.