DENVER (at Oakland)
This won't be an easy matchup for Denver. The Raiders have a lightly regarded defense, but some of that comes from opening against a pair of elite offenses (Atlanta and New Orleans); since then they've been much better. In their last six, they've allowed an average of just 22 points per game. Denver's offense, meanwhile, has been below average of late, with 7 TDs in its last four games. Don't assume they'll score any more than about 20-23 points in this one. The teams split low-scoring games a year ago, with Denver winning 16-10 at Oakland and losing 15-12 at home. ... Devontae Booker banged a shoulder against San Diego and was undergoing tests this week. He's expected to be fine, but we'll monitor his practice participation. Booker was a little disappointing last week (19 for 54, so just 2.8 yards per carry) but he scored a touchdown, added 5 receptions for 30 yards, and dominated snaps. Kapri Bibbs carried only 2 times for 4 yards, and Juwan Thompson's touchdown was his only offensive snap (and it came while he was lined up at fullback). Assuming Booker is healthy, he should be pretty good in this matchup. The Raiders rank 28th against the run. They've allowed over 100 yards six times and over 130 on four occasions. They're not ...
This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
. . . the 49ers (the teams that have had the most success have strong rushing offenses: Tennessee, Atlanta and Kansas City), but they're not good. The Broncos are just 20th in rushing offense, so you know they'd like to get that going. But the game's in Oakland, and Denver has shown no indication they can just muscle up and blow opponents off the ball. We're putting the Broncos down for slightly above-average yards, and probably 1 TD. Oakland has allowed 8, Denver has scored 8, with each total coming in eight games. Denver didn't run the ball well in either game a year ago. Just 43 yards on 18 carries for the C.J. Anderson-Ronnie Hillman duo at Oakland, and only 34 yards for the entire team in the home rematch (a game Anderson missed). ... Gary Kubiak admits some frustration with Trevor Siemian. He threw a Pick Six against San Diego and fumbled twice. But he's thrown only 3 other interceptions and those are his only fumbles, and Paxton Lynch's faceplant against Atlanta should still be fresh enough in Kubiak's memory that no change will soon be coming. The Raiders rank 27th against the pass, giving up 297 yards per game and 15 TDs. Again, though, getting torched by Brees and Ryan for 396-plus yards each and 7 TDs skews that some. In six games since, this defense has allowed an average of 254 yards and 8 TDs. Big difference, and Siemian is much closer to everyone else the Raiders have faced than he is to those MVP candidates. He averages 237 passing yards and has thrown 7 TDs in his six full games. We'll go a little higher than those averages given the matchup, but that's probably not far off where he'll end up. He's unlikely to put up big numbers (and with Denver likely to score 1 TD on the ground, the team would need to get up to 3 TDs for him to throw 2, which is probably beyond the offense). Denver didn't throw a touchdown in the series last year. ... Two teams have a pair of receivers in the top-12 in receptions, and they're playing in this game. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas have nearly identical numbers: 44-567-3 for Sanders, 42-535-4 for Thomas. Given the matchup (Denver is very tough on opposing wideouts), they'll definitely be the superior pair this week. The Raiders have allowed 8 TDs to wide receivers; the Broncos just 2. Note, however, that 5 of those were scored by the Saints and Falcons the first two weeks; just 3 TDs by wide receivers in the last six games. But the passing game revolves around that duo; no other receiver has even 25 targets, and none have 15 receptions, either. Each had a big game and a lesser one a year ago. Thomas caught 10 balls for 95 yards at home (5 for 55 at Oakland); Sanders caught 9 for 111 at Oakland (just 2 for 17 at home). The matchup isn't quite as favorable as the season-long numbers indicate, but with those receivers dominating looks, both should be solid. ... We have some interest in Virgil Green. He started the year out strong, with 7 catches for 74 yards the first two games, then missed three games with a calf injury and didn't do much in his first couple of games back. But he caught 4 balls for 55 yards against the Chargers last week, and the Raiders have long tended to give up production to tight ends. Last year they allowed 12 TDs to the position, compared to just 10 to wideouts. This year they've allowed only slightly fewer scoring plays to tight ends (5) than wide receivers (8). ... Brandon McManus averages 8.3 kicking points. Last year the Broncos kicked 7 field goals compared to just 1 extra point in this series, with McManus averaging 11 kicking points. ... The Broncos Defense scored the team's only touchdown in this series a year ago, bringing an interception back 74 yards. They might need one of those plays to be a top-10 defense this week, because it's a very poor matchup for them in terms of more predictable areas. Derek Carr has thrown only 3 interceptions all season, and taken just 9 sacks in eight games. One must be careful sitting down a defense ranked 1st in sacks and 5th in interceptions, but definitely a lesser situation for Denver.