Let me try something a little different. A combination of scheduling and current production. That is, look at each team’s current offensive numbers, and weigh those against what has happened in their opponents’ other games.

That is, if a team’s eight opponents have allowed an average of 25 points per game, it stands to reason that an offense is doing well if it’s averaging 30. If it’s averaging only 20 points per game, that means it’s struggling (and not because of a hard schedule).

I’m breaking it into three categories. Offensive touchdowns. (I like this better than scoring because it removes the variable of touchdowns scored on takeaways and kick returns). Rushing yards. And passing yards.

TOUCHDOWNS VS. SCHEDULE
RkTeamAvgOppDiff
1.New Orleans3.432.331.10
2.Atlanta3.382.291.08
3.New England3.252.241.01
4.Pittsburgh3.002.20.80
5.Dallas3.002.29.71
6.Buffalo2.882.21.66
7.Oakland3.132.61.52
8.San Diego2.882.42.46
9.Green Bay2.712.27.45
10.Indianapolis2.632.20.42
11.Carolina2.712.42.29
12.San Francisco2.432.16.27
13.Detroit2.382.15.22
14.Tennessee2.752.55.20
15.Arizona2.632.43.19
16.Miami2.292.30-.01
17.Tampa Bay2.572.59-.02
18.Cincinnati2.252.34-.09
19.Cleveland2.132.28-.16
20.Washington2.252.49-.24
21.Jacksonville2.142.45-.30
22.Philadelphia2.142.46-.31
23.Kansas City2.142.64-.50
24.NY Jets1.882.40-.53
25.Minnesota1.572.16-.58
26.Denver2.252.85-.60
27.NY Giants1.712.37-.66
28.Los Angeles1.712.38-.66
29.Houston1.382.17-.79
30.Chicago1.502.31-.81
31.Seattle1.712.80-1.09
32.Baltimore1.432.79-1.36

Starting with offensive touchdowns, the three teams that jump out are the Saints, Falcons and Patriots. All are averaging over 3 touchdowns per game, and all have been able to be successful despite playing hard schedules. They’re all averaging over a touchdown more than the other teams that have played against those same defenses. Not a surprise, but reaffirms that those are the best offenses for 2016. Biggest surprise in the top 10: Buffalo, which is averaging two thirds of a touchdown more than other offenses playing the same teams.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks and the Ravens have been the biggest underperformers. Both are averaging well under 2 TDs per game, even while playing against plenty of soft defenses. The opponents of Seattle and Baltimore have allowed close to 3 TDs in their other games.

RUSHING VS. SCHEDULE
RkTeamAvgOppDiff
1.Dallas164.9107.757.2
2.Buffalo154.1102.951.2
3.Tennessee152.3117.235.1
4.San Francisco128.696.432.2
5.Oakland116.597.818.7
6.Atlanta111.598.612.9
7.Miami120.0107.112.9
8.Cleveland114.0101.812.2
9.Houston114.0102.711.3
10.Cincinnati120.3110.79.5
11.Carolina123.9114.89.1
12.Arizona112.8107.35.5
13.Green Bay105.3100.74.6
14.Washington111.5107.83.7
15.Denver104.8102.02.7
16.NY Jets110.1109.6.5
17.Kansas City106.3106.0.3
18.Philadelphia109.4111.1-1.7
19.Tampa Bay113.4115.2-1.8
20.New England116.4121.5-5.1
21.Pittsburgh104.6111.6-7.1
22.Indianapolis99.6108.4-8.7
23.New Orleans88.199.0-10.9
24.Chicago96.6108.5-11.8
25.Detroit85.5108.5-23.0
26.San Diego94.0117.6-23.6
27.Jacksonville72.699.1-26.5
28.Minnesota71.9100.2-28.3
29.NY Giants70.3102.2-31.9
30.Baltimore86.3119.2-32.9
31.Seattle81.4118.7-37.2
32.Los Angeles79.9121.7-41.8

For rushing production, no surprise to see the Cowboys and Bills at the top. Those teams have been able to run the ball, even when playing against good run defenses. Both are averaging over 50 rushing yards more than other offenses playing against the same defenses. That is, when the Cowboys and Bills are playing against an opponent allowing 110 rushing yards per game, good chance that they’re still going to run for over 160 yards. Titans and 49ers are the other teams near the top, but a level back. Raiders come in at No. 5, but they have tailed off after big games in their first two.

Todd Gurley and the Rams, meanwhile, finish in last. Their schedule suggest they would be averaging about 122 rushing yards if they were an average running team, but they’re down under 80 yards anyway. They couldn’t even run the ball against the 49ers, who have allowed a 100-yard rusher in all six of their other games.

The Seahawks, Ravens, Giants and Vikings are all also underperformers, coming in 28-37 rushing yards below what an average offense might do.

PASSING VS. SCHEDULE
RkTeamAvgOppDiff
1.Atlanta329.5264.465.1
2.New Orleans338.0274.064.0
3.Washington310.6260.150.5
4.Indianapolis285.5243.741.8
5.Carolina280.1245.334.8
6.Cincinnati293.6260.233.4
7.NY Giants283.4252.930.5
8.San Diego285.6256.828.8
9.New England276.9251.025.9
10.Chicago268.9247.321.6
11.Pittsburgh280.9261.219.6
12.Oakland290.1270.719.4
13.Detroit269.3253.715.6
14.Arizona281.5267.114.4
15.Seattle274.3261.313.0
16.Tampa Bay253.7256.0-2.3
17.Jacksonville272.0274.3-2.3
18.Dallas253.3257.5-4.2
19.Cleveland258.1263.7-5.6
20.Los Angeles244.0257.0-13.0
21.Baltimore262.4277.0-14.6
22.Green Bay248.9264.1-15.2
23.Kansas City265.9283.6-17.7
24.Minnesota239.7261.4-21.7
25.NY Jets239.4261.2-21.9
26.Tennessee235.5262.6-27.1
27.Miami246.9275.6-28.7
28.Houston214.9262.9-48.0
29.Denver235.0287.7-52.7
30.Philadelphia218.0272.5-54.5
31.Buffalo190.6259.9-69.3
32.San Francisco174.3274.3-100.0

With passing, no surprise to see the Falcons and Saints again at the top. They’re moving the ball through the air, and it doesn’t matter who they’re playing.

Washington also grades out surprisingly well. Its seven games have been against defense that otherwise have allowed only 260 passing yards per game, but Washington is still up at 311.

The 49ers grade out as the worst of the worst. They’re opponents are allowing 274 passing yards per game, but San Francisco is coming in 100 yards short of that. That’s something to keep in mind for anybody entertaining the idea that Colin Kaepernick, at home against a really bad New Orleans defense, might suddenly pass for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

Other passing offenses in that 50-plus range of underperformance include Buffalo, Philadelphia, Denver quarterbacks both old and new (the Texans and Broncos).

—Ian Allan