Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Whatever happened to Sammie Coates? Is Taylor Gabriel better than Mohamed Sanu? Why are TV ratings down? And is Colin Kaepernick worth a spot-start against a really soft New Orleans defense?
Question 1
Who has more upside Mohamed Sanu or Quincy Enunwa?
MARK MICHAUD (Portsmouth, NH)
I was impressed by Taylor Gabriel last night. I think he’s coming on. I believe they’ve kind of settled on him as their No. 3 receiver, and he adds a dimension to that offense. Caught the long touchdown against the Packers, and he caught all 5 passes they threw him last night, plus the touchdown on the jet sweep. He’s their fastest receiver and adds a dimension to that offense. During the third quarter of that game, it occurred to me that maybe Gabriel, not Sanu, is the 2nd-best receiver on that team. Then Sanu kind of came on and salvaged a decent game for himself, catching 5 passes for 74 yards. I think Sanu will catch more balls than Gabriel, but that with more big-play ability, Gabriel might finish with more yards and touchdowns. They are similar in value, I think. With Sanu, the big edge is that if Julio Jones gets hurt (which seems to happen) he would be thrust into a larger role and might be pretty darn good. Sanu has been a disappointment for most of the year, but when Jones tweaked his knee at Green Bay and became more of a decoy, Sanu stepped up with 9 catches for 84 yards. Anyway, that’s a round about way of me saying that I much prefer Enunwa. The Jets have some ability to huck it around, and they really have only two reliable pass catchers there – just Enunwa and Marshall. At the halfway point of the season he’s on pace to finish the year with 72 catches, 1,004 yards and 6 TDs, and I think it’s very possible his second half will be more productive than his first.
Question 2
Sammie Coates! How does he go from a rest-of-season rank (last week, going into his bye) of 29 to about 45 this week (coming out of his bye)? Shouldn't his rest of season rank improve?
HOWARD SPIELER (Fanwood, NJ)
Coates is big and fast, and has shown some ability to run vertical routes. He had a 40-yard reception in each of the first five games. But he also drops a lot of passes, and the Steelers might be losing patience with him. The last time they played, Darrius Heyward-Bey started ahead of him, had a nice touchdown catch, and Coates was on the field for only 7 plays. They might be related to a finger that Coates suffered about a month ago; various reports say he broke a finger and needed 17 stitches – some kind of finger injury. But Coates practiced fully all week prior to the New England game and wasn’t mentioned on their injury report, so he’s presumably pretty healthy. So that’s curious. And now on the team’s website, Heyward-Bey is listed as a starter, while Coates and Markus Wheaton are listed as backups. Apparently, there are some issues here. So while Coates has some upside, it’s also possible he won’t even play much. They’re also got Eli Rogers, who was their slot guy earlier but was benched for their last game. And they should be activating Ladarius Green soon. Also note that five of the next seven games are on the road, and that offense typically isn’t nearly as good away from Heinz Field. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 50 touchdowns in his last 16 games at home. He has thrown 18 TDs in his last 16 games on the road.
Question 3
This NFL season is odd. Ratings are down and the product on the field doesn't seem as good. Curious if the length of the games and the total number of penalties is increasing? It seems like every other play has a flag called. And maybe it is the spreading out of games from Thursday night to Monday night with the London games, but the games feel longer than ever. Any chance you have data to support or negate my assumption?
Matt Moyers (Centennial, CO)
The spreading out of games, I think, is a factor. It used to be that all games were played on Sunday, in two time slots, and it was must-see TV. Now they’ve got games on Monday nights, Thursday nights, Sunday nights and even Sunday mornings. It’s impossible to watch them all. That’s one factor. You’ve also got a growing number of platforms – computers, phones, TV stations that show sports highlights around the clock. There’s the Red Zone Channel, where they don’t show a game but bounce around from stadium to stadium. So many are developing new habits, I think. Fewer are interested in investing in a 3-hour game. It makes more sense to bounce around, watch a little here and there, and see the highlights on other platforms. For me (and I’m sure I’m not alone) my viewing habits are radically different than they were 20-30 years ago. I never watch pregame or halftime shows anymore. Rarely do I get trapped watching a game in real time, where they keep stopping the action for three-minute commercial breaks. It’s a different world now.
Question 4
Must choose QB to start with Brady on bye. Choice of Kaepernick versus New Orleans or Ryan Tannehill versus Jets. The team I am playing against is starting both DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. Does it make sense to go with Tannehill to block his Miami receiver production?
david wilde (Mukwonago, WI)
Kaepernick can’t play. Way too often he either doesn’t see open receivers or the throw isn’t on target. I logged his work in the Buffalo game, and he was pretty awful. He finished 13 of 29, and two of the completions were more handoffs (on jet sweeps) than completed passes. He had Torrey Smith and Shaun Draughn open for touchdowns, but the throws weren’t accurate. So even against a lesser defense like New Orleans, I have no interest in Kaepernick. The Dolphins have been running the heck out of it in their last two, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do that on Sunday. The Jets are too strong against the run, I think. I expect they’ll open it up a lot more, and I think Tannehill will have a good day against that defense. Jets are allowing 302 passing yards per game (2nd-worst in the league) and have given up 15 TD passes. Darrelle Revis has gotten old; he’s not a marquee shutdown corner anymore. I’m not a big Tannehill fan, but I expect he’ll be a top-10 quarterback this week.
Question 5
Would you start both Ingram and Hightower this week if you've got them? My only other choices due to byes are McCoy, Gillislee and Crowell. Thanks for your advice.
Paul Davis (Mineral City, OH)
I would be thinking about it. I think they’ll both play. I don’t think the Saints are kicking Mark Ingram to the curb; I think he’ll probably start. But Hightower ran for 102 yards last week, so he’s earned some playing time. I expect they’ll both get 40-plus percent of the workload, and the matchup couldn’t be better. I would think those two should run for at least 150 yards and a touchdown. For me, LeSean McCoy is the wild card. He’s saying he’s healthy, and I think he could be surprisingly good at Seattle. The Seahawks have given up 100-yard rushers two weeks in a row. So maybe McCoy. Let’s see how much he practices. Today I’m starting Ingram and Hightower.
Question 6
Hey Ian. We can all see the value in quite a few handcuff RBs – Alfred Morris, Derrick Henry, Alfred Blue. I'm wondering how you think Andre Ellington would do in David Johnson's stead. How much of a drop off would you see there and where would you Redraft him for the rest of the season? Thanks for your analysis.
James Crawford (Atlanta, GA)
Ellington is quick and shifty, but he’s really more of a third-down back. There’s a dropoff there. He’s not a tackle breaker, and he has problems staying healthy – he wears down. So if an injury occurs, lifting him into the starting lineup, you’re looking at matchups, and you’re considering the possibility they’ll work in other backs some. They would probably try to replace him on a lot of goal-line plays, for example. David Johnson is averaging 88 rushing and 51 receiving yards so far, with 8 TDs in eight games. Ellington can’t do that. When he started two years ago, he averaged 55 rushing and 33 receiving yards, with 5 TDs in 12 games. I think that’s the kind of production you’d be looking at. The Cardinals also have Chris Johnson, and he’s eligible to come off injured reserve for Week 13. Once Johnson is healthy, I would think they would be more of a one-two punch (if necessary).
Question 7
A lot of byes this week so most decisions are easy. I only have a question about my TE. I like Doyle but he's got a tough match up against Green Bay. Adding to that is the chance Allen is back and may take back some of Doyle's targets. My other choice is Green vs. Oakland, who are pretty good against TE's but have given up 5 TE TD's so far while Green Bay has given up only 2. My gut says Green, even if Allen doesn't return. Do you agree with my gut?
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
Virgil Green has been a disappointment . He missed three games with a calf injury. He hasn’t scored in any of his five games. He might be starting to come to life. He caught 4 passes for 55 yards last week – perhaps coming to life. But for me, that’s not enough to get him ahead of Jack Doyle. Doyle is averaging 40 yards and has caught 4 TDs – all of one of which were scored in games with Dwayne Allen also playing. Allen (ankle) might return this week, but he’s not healthy – he was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. And I’m not sure how healthy T.Y. Hilton is. Hilton definitely injured his hamstring against Kansas City, causing him to be used largely as a decoy in that game. I expect Doyle will get some looks.
Question 8
Do you still see Tevin Coleman, once his hamstring injury heals, as a better long-term option for Atlanta's running game than Davonta Freeman? Watching Freeman last night, he's quicker than Coleman but he seems to go down easily. Coleman is bigger and they've been throwing him the ball a bit more this year.
Andrew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
I think they’re a one-two punch. I think they want them both playing. They both catch really well. Freeman is more elusive, I think – has better vision and cutting ability. He’s built lower to the ground – he’s 5 inches shorter. With Coleman, he’s more of a straight-line guy who can really turn it on when gets into the open field, running away from people. At 23, Coleman is one year younger. In a dynasty format, I think they have similar value; I would put Coleman slightly higher.
Question 9
Very unnecessary cheap shot on Blair Walsh in the weekly capsule. That's beneath you, Ian. Maybe Stephen and Blair can square off in Minneapolis again this January.
BRYAN BERTSCH (Hopkins, MN)
I like Blair Walsh. Prior to that pivotal miss at the end, he was remarkably good in that playoff loss against Seattle, hitting 43- and 47-yard field goals in really tough weather conditions. I liked the way he stood up and answered the questions after the game. But if he wants to stay in the league, he’s got to make the kicks. He seems to be lacking a little confidence right now. He’s missed 3 field goals and 2 extra points. He had the ugly slump in 2014, when he was only 26 of 35 on field goals. He’s been fine in his other three seasons (hitting 87-plus percent) but I don’t think he has the margin of error anymore to miss many more kicks.
Question 10
In our league we can do a trades offering next year’s draft picks (2nd round is the highest) for the other team’s player to use for this year. One franchise is having a clearance sale. He has Gurley and Ajayi. I'm leaning towards Ajayi. Am I right and what round you think would be a fair market value?
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
I’m not sure if we’re talking about a player trade or a player loan. If it’s a trade – with the team retaining the player’s rights in 2017 and beyond – then I prefer Gurley. He’s the more talented of the two. I think he’ll have a longer, better career, and he’s a lot better as a pass catcher. Gurley has struggled as a runner in a lot of games, but they’re doing some good things with him in the passing game. He’s had 35-plus receiving yards four games in a row. Ajayi caught 28 passes his final year at Boise State, but he’s struggled mightily as a pass catcher with the Dolphins – I’ve seen him commit some really ugly drops. He’s caught only 2 passes for 5 yards in the team’s last three games. Ajayi has had the hot hand, but when you factor in talent level and receiving production, those backs start to look pretty similar for the remainder of the 2016 season. Ajayi has a pair of games left against the Jets; I doubt he’ll be a top-10 back in either of those games. With Gurley, I see three games that look like clunkers – at Jets, at Patriots, at Seahawks. Both running backs get to play one game against the 49ers, and they’ll almost certainly be top-4 backs in those weeks. Jacquizz Rodgers probably shouldn’t even be in the league, and he ran for 154 yards against that defense. Ajayi gets San Francisco in Week 12, and Gurley sees them in Week 16.
Question 11
Brady is on bye and would love to hear your thoughts on backups. TD-only league. I'm tempted to start Prescott over Carr this week.
Sarah Clark (Sherman Oaks, CA)
I haven’t been impressed by the Raiders. To me, that looks like an 8-8 type team that happens to have won six games. I re-watched the first half of their game at Tampa Bay, and I thought the Bucs looked like the better team. The previous week, Oakland was beating a pretty God-awful Jaguars team. I just don’t think that team is for real, and I think that will become apparent when they play against a better Denver defense on Sunday. Cowboys, meanwhile, playing against a Cleveland defense that’s allowed 19 TD passes, with 28-plus points allowed in six straight games. So for Week 9 in a TD-only league, I wouldn’t hesitate to start Dak Prescott over Derek Carr. On my initial board, I had Prescott as the No. 2 quarterback this week, while Carr was down at next-to-last. Broncos have allowed only 6 TD passes all year.