PHILADELPHIA (at Cin.)
Pushing around the numbers, about 2 TDs seems like the ceiling for this matchup. The Eagles came out of the gates strong back in September, but the offense has now scored only 12 TDs in its last eight games -- that's 1.5 per week. Cincinnati's defense has been a little softer than in the past, but it's a middle-of-the-pack unit in scoring defense; it's now allowed 10 TDs in its last five games. Finishing with 2 TDs seems like the most likely result for the Eagles. Maybe they underachieve with just one, but not a great chance of them getting up to 3. ... The value here is in the running game. The Eagles don't have an overpowering ground game, but they rank 8th in rushing, while the Bengals have a bottom-10 run defense. Cincinnati has struggled against the run in most games, and it's an issue ...

This report is taken from today's Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of camp reports, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.

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... that's continued recently. The Bills ran for 183 yards in this building two weeks ago. Cincinnati's last two other games were against teams with bottom-5 running offenses (Giants and Ravens) and they made both of those ground games look serviceable, giving up over 115 yards in both of those games. (Officially, Baltimore closed at 92 yards, but punter Sam Koch lost 23 yards on a play classified as a rushing attempt.) So while the Eagles don't have an elite running game, they should have some success running the ball in this game. Probably 120-130 yards. They tend to use a committee of backs, of course, but this looks like a week where it might be possible to wade in and get some production. Ryan Mathews didn't practice at all last week because of a knee injury. Mathews hasn't been quick to return from injuries in the past and Doug Pederson on Saturday called Mathews' injury pretty significant. For now, we'll assume Mathews will sit out (we'll revise everything on Friday if he surprises us and returns to practice). Darren Sproles was heavily used for a few games, but the Eagles seem to have re-thought how much they want to use a 33-year-old who weighs 190 pounds. Three games in a row Sproles has carried 2-3 times. And the Eagles don't seem crazy about using Kenjon Barner too much; he's carried only 4 times in the last three games. So it should be Wendell Smallwood getting the bulk of the work, and he's been pretty effective with his limited touches. He's averaged 4.4 yards per carry, and he's big enough (208 pounds) that they see him as their Mathews-type back when the veteran is injured. Smallwood ran for 79 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh after Mathews got hurt. He ran for 70 yards against Atlanta. He played well enough against Green Bay on Monday night -- 9 carries for 37 yards, but the game got out of hand. If the Eagles come through with 120-130 rushing yards in this game like the trends suggest, he'll probably run for 80-plus yards, with a good chance of a touchdown. Relative to his usual value, looks like one of the very best running backs on the board this week. ... Carson Wentz has had a solid first season. He's completed almost 64 percent of his passes, he's averaging 236 yards and he's thrown only 8 interceptions. But he's still just a rookie, and defenses have been doing a better job against him. He's 2-6 in his last eight starts, and he's thrown only 4 TDs in his last seven games. At this point, they just need to get him to the offseason so they can continue to develop him. He doesn't look likely to put up average numbers this week. Cincinnati has a middle-of-the-pack pass defense, but it's a group that's been better recently. Tom Brady and Eli Manning each threw 3 TDs against this defense, but the Bengals have allowed only 5 TD passes in their last six other games. Wentz doesn't look likely to put up big numbers against them. ... It's not a super matchup for the passing game, but there are some pass catchers with value. Jordan Matthews is the usual go-to receiver, but he suffered a sprained ankle late in the Green Bay game. Doug Pederson says he expects Matthews will play, but with the veteran being at less than full strength, makes sense to slot him lower than usual. Matthews is averaging 62 yards per game, with 3 TDs. The Eagles left Nelson Agholor inactive on Monday night; he's been pressing, seemingly losing confidence after making too many mental errors. Unclear if he'll even play. And with the Matthews-Agholor developments, Dorial Green-Beckham looks appealing. He's been coming on anyway, with a touchdown at Seattle and the busiest game of his career on Monday night -- 6 catches for 82 yards. With the way things are shaping up, Green-Beckham looks like a surprisingly serviceable option. Unless the Eagles decide to dust off Agholor, Bryce Treggs and Paul Turner should be the other wide receivers who get on the field, but neither has shown much potential yet. ... Zach Ertz will catch some balls. He's averaging 41 yards per game, but with just one touchdown (in nine games). Looks like a middle-of-the-pack tight end, with limited potential of getting in the top 10 at his position. ... Caleb Sturgis is having a big year. The Eagles have a below-average offense, but they're kicking lots of field goals -- he's scored 4 more field goals (25) than extra points. The Eagles are just 5-6, but Sturgis is on pace to score 139 points. So he looks like a suitable enough kicker. The Bengals have allowed multiple field goals in five of 11 games. ... The Eagles Defense should finish in the top 10 in sacks. Their pass rush has tailed off some recently, but the Bengals have had all kinds of issues protecting Andy Dalton -- he's been sacked 32 times in 11 games. They're in the mix for 3 sacks. But Dalton is one of the better quarterbacks at taking care of the ball. After throwing 37 interceptions in the 2013-14 seasons, he's thrown only 13 picks in his last 24 games. We can't promise Philadelphia will get even one interception. On the grades in the pdf file, those include kick returns, giving the Eagles a boost. They've already scored 2 TDs on kickoff returns, and they've had two other returns over 50 yards.