The tendency is to believe the Cowboys and Eagles have solved the quarterback position for the foreseeable future, and maybe they have. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz did a lot of good things last year. But looking at the career arcs of previous quarterbacks, I get a little more nervous about those guys.
Especially Wentz. With Prescott, he doesn’t quite fit the profile of what I’m building here. He threw 23 TDs versus only 4 interceptions last year. Only because they didn’t ask him to do much (just 229 passing yards per game) was he not more of a fantasy factor in his first season.
Really I’m more interested in Wentz. He averaged 236 passing yards, with 16 TDs, making him just the 27th-best quarterback (standard scoring) on a per-game basis last year. He was fine, but he wasn’t great. And if you get out the numbers, a lot of other quarterbacks over the years have played pretty well in their first year, then failed to build on that.
For this one, I am using the per-game numbers of all rookie quarterbacks who started at least half of the season. I’m tossed out guys who put up above-average numbers in their first year. Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson – those guys were on a level way above what Wentz did last year.
I’m instead looking at quarterbacks who were below-average in their first year. There are 32 teams, so below-average means 17th or lower. If a player ranked in the top 16 (including Matthew Stafford and Marcus Mariota), I left them out. Prescott probably should have been in that top-16 group, but with stats zooming up around the league and the Cowboys running the ball, he closed his first year as the 17th-best quarterback (that was also helped by a cameo in Week 17 at Philadelphia).
Turns out there are 32 quarterbacks in this century who fit the below-average profile (again, per game). These are guys who are more like Wentz. And of these 32, only three have gone on to be what I will call elite quarterbacks. By “elite”, I mean quarterbacks who can be counted on for top-10 numbers. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Derek Carr (two seasons and counting) I am putting in that class.
Four others are worth mention (and I’ve got them flagged with black dots). Jameis Winston might become an elite quarterback (but it hasn’t happened yet). Joe Flacco has a Super Bowl ring and has won playoff games, but he’s fallen well short of being viable as a fantasy starter. Andy Dalton is a serviceable NFL starter, but I don’t know that he’ll ever develop into a player who can be counted on for top-10 numbers. And there’s the odd case of Blake Bortles, who’s put up top-10 numbers two years in a row while simultaneously making everyone wonder whether the Jaguars should replace him. He might still salvage his career.
But ultimately, a lot more misses than hits. Byron Leftwich, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez and Christian Ponder in the past used to be seen as Wentz-type prospects, and they’ve quietly fizzled away. Many of the guys on this were never viewed as being as promising as Wentz. Andrew Walter, Kyle Orton, Bruce Gradkowski, Jimmy Clausen and Chad Hutchinson, for example, weren’t first-round picks and didn’t even start a single game in their second year. But most of the players on this list put up fantasy numbers that we’re in the same ballpark as what Wentz did last year.
I am hopeful Wentz will develop into an above-average NFL starter, but it hasn’t happened yet. He didn’t make many downfield throws last year (only Brock Osweiler averaged fewer yards per attempt). Among quarterbacks who started over half the year, nobody averaged fewer touchdown passes.
Maybe it works out for Wentz, but I don’t think it’s a given that will happen.
Here are those 32 quarterbacks, along with their numbers from their second season (how they performed in games they started).
| QUARTERBACKS TRYING TO MAKE LEAP IN SECOND SEASON | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR |
| 2002 | Quincy Carter, Dall. | 7 | 209 | 1.00 | 13 | .00 |
| 2002 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 1 | 26 | .00 | 15 | .00 |
| 2003 | David Carr, Hou. | 11 | 181 | .82 | 11 | .18 |
| 2003 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 16 | 180 | 1.06 | 5 | .00 |
| 2003 | Chad Hutchinson, Dall. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| 2004 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 14 | 210 | 1.07 | 11 | .14 |
| 2004 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 16 | 160 | .81 | 12 | .06 |
| 2005 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 12 | 199 | 1.42 | 6 | .25 |
| 2006 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| 2007 | Bruce Gradkowski, T.B. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| 2007 | Andrew Walter, Oak. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| 2008 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 14 | 193 | .79 | 8 | .21 |
| 2009 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 14 | 208 | 1.57 | 4 | .07 |
| 2009 | • Joe Flacco, Balt. | 16 | 226 | 1.31 | 4 | .00 |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 16 | 216 | 1.56 | 23 | .00 |
| 2010 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 16 | 206 | 1.06 | 7 | .19 |
| 2011 | Colt McCoy, Clev. | 13 | 209 | 1.08 | 16 | .00 |
| 2011 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 10 | 216 | .60 | 3 | .00 |
| 2011 | Jimmy Clausen, Car. | 0 | 0 | .00 | 0 | .00 |
| 2012 | • Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 229 | 1.69 | 8 | .25 |
| 2012 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 16 | 183 | 1.13 | 16 | .13 |
| 2012 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 10 | 166 | .90 | 6 | .00 |
| 2013 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 5 | 304 | 1.60 | 8 | .00 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 245 | 1.50 | 15 | .06 |
| 2014 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 5 | 259 | 1.80 | 6 | .00 |
| 2014 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 4 | 210 | 1.25 | 13 | .25 |
| 2014 | Case Keenum, Hou. | 2 | 218 | 1.00 | 18 | .00 |
| 2014 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 13 | 187 | 1.00 | 18 | .08 |
| 2015 | • Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 19 | .13 |
| 2015 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 249 | 2.00 | 9 | .00 |
| 2015 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 16 | 202 | .88 | 12 | .19 |
| 2016 | • Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 256 | 1.75 | 10 | .06 |
On this chart, if a player eventually developed in a “great” fantasy quarterback, I’ve got him in bold. If a player developed into a “good” quarterback (some value), I’ve got him tagged with a black dot.
—Ian Allan