I like Andy Dalton. And by “like”, I mean I believe he will be drafted later than he should be drafted in the vast majority of drafts.
Dalton has had some clunker years – throwing only 18 TDs last year, for example. And he’s come up small in the postseason. Cincinnati’s last playoff win came in 1990 against the Houston Oilers.
But a lot of those issues weren’t entirely his fault. In his last two down years, for example, Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green have combined to miss 32 of 64 games. Those are key weapons to be missing.
When everybody is healthy and right, Dalton has been pretty impressive. Look at his numbers in 2013 and 2015, for example. He averaged 260 passing yards in those seasons, with 58 TDs in 29 games. He also runs for touchdowns.
If you look at quarterbacks who started over half the time in the 2013 and 2015 seasons, only three averaged better fantasy numbers (per game) than Dalton.
| QUARTERBACKS PER GAME (2013 & 2015) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Points |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 31 | 324 | 2.29 | 2 | .13 | 26.3 |
| Peyton Manning, Den. | 25 | 309 | 2.56 | -1 | .04 | 25.8 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 32 | 226 | 1.84 | 38 | .50 | 25.5 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 29 | 260 | 2.00 | 11 | .17 | 23.2 |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 23 | 248 | 1.65 | 25 | .17 | 23.0 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 32 | 279 | 1.91 | 7 | .09 | 23.0 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 32 | 231 | 1.88 | 34 | .06 | 22.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 25 | 254 | 1.92 | 19 | .04 | 22.8 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 32 | 285 | 1.91 | 2 | .09 | 22.8 |
| Philip Rivers, S.D. | 32 | 290 | 1.91 | 3 | .00 | 22.5 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 27 | 290 | 1.70 | 5 | .04 | 22.5 |
| Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 19 | 259 | 1.74 | 3 | .26 | 22.0 |
| Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 32 | 280 | 1.84 | 1 | .03 | 21.6 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ten.-NYJ | 25 | 239 | 1.68 | 19 | .16 | 21.6 |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 32 | 285 | 1.47 | 4 | .00 | 20.5 |
| Tony Romo, Dall. | 19 | 248 | 1.89 | 3 | .00 | 20.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 32 | 254 | 1.50 | 12 | .06 | 20.3 |
| Alex Smith, K.C. | 31 | 219 | 1.39 | 30 | .10 | 20.2 |
| Jay Cutler, Chi. | 26 | 242 | 1.54 | 12 | .04 | 20.0 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 32 | 258 | 1.66 | 3 | .00 | 19.8 |
| Joe Flacco, Balt. | 26 | 258 | 1.27 | 6 | .15 | 19.7 |
| Nick Foles, Phil.-St.L. | 21 | 224 | 1.48 | 11 | .19 | 19.7 |
| Sam Bradford, St.L.-Phil. | 21 | 258 | 1.57 | 3 | .00 | 19.6 |
| Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 24 | 201 | 1.13 | 33 | .21 | 19.1 |
For 2017, Dalton’s receiving corps should be his best. Well, if Green and Eifert stay healthy for a change. First-rounder John Ross should add some long-range touchdowns. Tyler Boyd might be able to help more in his second season. And they’ve still go Brandon LaFell.
Offensive line could be a problem, with Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler signing free agent deals with other teams. But keep Dalton upright, and I think he’ll be very good.
—Ian Allan