Yesterday I ran an item on the top rookie seasons in terms of sacks over the last 20 years, trying to guess what the likelihood of coveted defensive prospects like Miles Garrett and Solomon Thomas might do this season. But it was pointed out to me, better to compare them to previous defensive ends selected near the top of the NFL Draft.

So I pulled out the rookie sack numbers for all defensive ends selected in the top 10 picks over the past 20 years. There were 28 such players. Approximately half of them had credible pass rush seasons; at least 5 sacks. Five (including Joey Bosa last year) reached double digits.

Seems like an even chance that Garrett and Thomas sneak up into the 5-sack range; one of them anyway. Less likely that either posts difference-making numbers right off the bat.

20022Julius Peppers, Car.12.0
200310Terrell Suggs, Balt.12.0
19974Peter Boulware, Balt.11.5
20163Joey Bosa, S.D.10.5
20039Kevin Williams, Minn.10.5
20014Justin Smith, Cin.8.5
20135Ezekiel Ansah, Det.8.0
20017Andre Carter, S.F.6.5
20074Gaines Adams, T.B.6.0
20167DeForest Buckner, S.F.6.0
19983Andre Wadsworth, Ariz.5.0
20136Barkevious Mingo, Clev.5.0
20061Mario Williams, Hou.4.5
20001Courtney Brown, Clev.4.5
20082Chris Long, St.L.4.0
20145Khalil Mack, Oak.4.0
20088Derrick Harvey, Jac.3.5
201010Tyson Alualu, Jac.3.5
20156Leonard Williams, NYJ3.0
19986Grant Wistrom, St.L.3.0
19988Greg Ellis, Dall.3.0
20133Dion Jordan, Mia.2.0
200110Jamal Reynolds, G.B.2.0
20141Jadeveon Clowney, Hou.0.0
20093Tyson Jackson, K.C.0.0
20086Vernon Gholston, NYJ0.0
20078Jamaal Anderson, Atl.0.0
20153Dante Fowler Jr., Jac.0.0
20171Myles Garrett, Clev.??
20173Solomon Thomas, S.F.??

--Andy Richardson