I’m working on compiling the Experts Poll stuff right now. You take the top 20 picks of the various panelists, average them, and see what it looks like. With the wide receivers, I’m surprised that there’s no interest in the rookies.
Three, recall, were chosen with top 10 picks. Corey Davis went 5th, Mike Williams went 7th, and John Ross was chosen 9th. I’m not particularly high on any of these guys myself, but with the poll involving 20 different experts, I would have guess there were would have been a couple of votes for a few of these guys. Maybe somebody thinks Corey Davis is the next big thing, or that Williams will dominate in the red zone.
But nothing at all.
So I decided to look at past rookies, and see how they have fared.
In this century, 70 wide receivers have been chosen with first-round picks (prior to this year). Only seven of those receivers put up top-20 numbers in their first year. (The headliner of this group was Odell Beckham Jr., the only one to crack the top 10.)
Another 10 at least cracked the top 30 (so 17 of 70 ended up in the top 30).
Those numbers are slanted towards those being chosen higher. Of the last 16 wide receivers chosen in the top 7, 10 of them have put up top-30 numbers in their first season. And three of that group finished in the top 20.
On the (admittedly lengthy) list below, if a receiver finished with top-20 numbers, he’s in bold. If he’s at least in the top 30, he’s got a black dot by his name.
Players are ordered by how high they were picked. Scoring is standard, with 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards. (TDs include kick returns).
| RECEIVERS SELECTED IN FIRST ROUND SINCE 2000 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Points | Rnk |
| 2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 48 | 756 | 52 | 5 | 110.8 | 36 |
| 2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers, Det. | 22 | 243 | 17 | 3 | 44.0 | 89 |
| 2003 | 3 | •Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | -10 | 4 | 120.6 | 24 |
| 2004 | 3 | •Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 58 | 780 | 14 | 8 | 127.4 | 30 |
| 2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards, Clev. | 31 | 422 | 0 | 6 | 78.2 | 53 |
| 2011 | 4 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1057 | 53 | 7 | 153.0 | 14 |
| 2015 | 4 | •Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | -3 | 6 | 142.7 | 23 |
| 2014 | 4 | •Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 8 | 6 | 135.0 | 26 |
| 2000 | 4 | •Peter Warrick, Cin. | 51 | 592 | 148 | 7 | 116.0 | 27 |
| 2012 | 5 | •Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 23 | 5 | 120.8 | 29 |
| 2011 | 6 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 56 | 8 | 149.5 | 17 |
| 2014 | 7 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1051 | 0 | 12 | 177.1 | 11 |
| 2004 | 7 | •Roy Williams, Det. | 54 | 817 | 1 | 8 | 129.8 | 29 |
| 2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson, Minn. | 31 | 346 | 0 | 2 | 46.6 | 82 |
| 2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak. | 9 | 124 | 19 | 1 | 20.3 | 112 |
| 2016 | 7 | Kevin White, Chi. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 40 | 418 | 151 | 6 | 92.9 | 50 |
| 2001 | 8 | David Terrell, Chi. | 34 | 415 | 0 | 4 | 65.5 | 60 |
| 2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress, Pitt. | 22 | 273 | 0 | 0 | 27.3 | 94 |
| 2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson, Sea. | 39 | 536 | 13 | 1 | 60.9 | 64 |
| 2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. | 34 | 420 | 3 | 3 | 60.3 | 73 |
| 2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 27 | 268 | 0 | 1 | 36.8 | 98 |
| 2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree, S.F. | 48 | 625 | 0 | 2 | 74.5 | 65 |
| 2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor, Balt. | 28 | 276 | 11 | 3 | 46.7 | 74 |
| 2005 | 10 | Mike Williams, Det. | 29 | 350 | 0 | 1 | 41.0 | 98 |
| 2014 | 12 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG | 91 | 1305 | 35 | 12 | 206.0 | 6 |
| 2004 | 13 | •Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 85 | 9 | 146.8 | 24 |
| 2002 | 13 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 42 | 594 | 2 | 8 | 107.6 | 40 |
| 2012 | 13 | Michael Floyd, Ariz. | 45 | 562 | 0 | 2 | 68.2 | 69 |
| 2015 | 14 | DeVante Parker, Mia. | 26 | 494 | 0 | 3 | 67.4 | 69 |
| 2004 | 15 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1193 | 30 | 7 | 164.3 | 14 |
| 2001 | 15 | Rod Gardner, Wash. | 46 | 741 | 16 | 4 | 99.7 | 39 |
| 2016 | 15 | Corey Coleman, Clev. | 33 | 413 | 10 | 3 | 60.3 | 84 |
| 2002 | 16 | Santana Moss, NYJ | 30 | 433 | 48 | 6 | 84.1 | 58 |
| 2003 | 17 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 35 | 438 | 0 | 1 | 49.8 | 84 |
| 2009 | 19 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 55 | 762 | -7 | 4 | 99.5 | 40 |
| 2002 | 19 | Ashley Lelie, Den. | 35 | 525 | 40 | 2 | 68.5 | 67 |
| 2012 | 20 | Kendall Wright, Tenn. | 64 | 626 | 4 | 4 | 87.0 | 56 |
| 2014 | 20 | Brandin Cooks, N.O. | 53 | 550 | 73 | 4 | 86.3 | 57 |
| 2002 | 20 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 23 | 319 | 11 | 1 | 39.0 | 94 |
| 2015 | 20 | Nelson Agholor, Phil. | 23 | 283 | 0 | 1 | 34.3 | 101 |
| 2000 | 21 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 0 | 3 | 85.8 | 51 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | -3 | 3 | 81.2 | 62 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 55 | 492 | 13 | 2 | 62.5 | 68 |
| 2009 | 22 | Percy Harvin, Minn. | 60 | 790 | 135 | 8 | 140.5 | 20 |
| 2005 | 22 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 38 | 482 | 7 | 3 | 66.9 | 64 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 1 | 2 | 40.4 | 94 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | 167 |
| 2007 | 23 | •Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 0 | 5 | 129.5 | 25 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 185 |
| 2010 | 24 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 0 | 8 | 104.1 | 42 |
| 2006 | 25 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 13 | 3 | 101.7 | 38 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | -4 | 1 | 33.9 | 89 |
| 2016 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2012 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 20 | 325 | 0 | 1 | 38.5 | 101 |
| 2013 | 27 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 0 | 2 | 92.2 | 51 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 41 | 543 | 0 | 1 | 60.3 | 70 |
| 2008 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2014 | 28 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 0 | 9 | 154.8 | 16 |
| 2009 | 29 | •Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 8 | 6 | 115.8 | 28 |
| 2013 | 29 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45 | 469 | 158 | 9 | 116.7 | 33 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 28 | 1 | 24.2 | 100 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 17 | 1 | 30.2 | 108 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 2 | 0 | 12.1 | 132 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 42 | 701 | 0 | 3 | 88.1 | 50 |
| 2001 | 30 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 0 | 0 | 34.5 | 87 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 9 | 1 | 25.7 | 108 |
| 2013 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .0 | -- |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 0 | 1 | 22.0 | 112 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 3 | 3 | 75.9 | 61 |
—Ian Allan