Drafts are a snapshot in time. Not a specific year or month; precisely the amount of time when the draft occurs, and nothing else. League circumstances can change the next day (or even that afternoon) that can seriously affect a fantasy team's fortunes.
And the earlier you draft, the more of those circumstances you'll be forced to encounter.
Remember the good old days of a few weeks ago? Guys like Cameron Meredith and Julian Edelman were looking forward to productive years. Spencer Ware was a starter with a rookie breathing down his neck for touches. Sammy Watkins played for Buffalo. The Colts even sounded kind of optimistic about Andrew Luck being ready for the start of the season.
Like looking at old photos on social media, it's funny to see how silly and naïve we were back then. But unlike social media flashbacks, we haven't even grown out of our bad haircuts yet. All that stuff just happened. That's why no drafts should be allowed to occur before the third phony game.
Did I write phony? Preseason. I meant preseason.
No drafts should be allowed to occur before the third preseason game. I know that sounds draconian, but maybe the president can make it an Executive Order. I know it technically limits freedom, but it's for our own good. We'll all be better off.
The earlier you draft, the more variables you inject into a season that's already going to be full of them. Every major event distances the actual league circumstances from the ones you used to execute your game plan. The draft becomes less a comparison of various owner strategies and more a lottery of who avoided the biggest landmines leading up to week 1. And that isn't the game we signed up to play.
Strangely, some owners don't find that argument very compelling. You'll never eliminate injuries and roster changes, they say. What should we do? Draft after week 1 or week 4? Maybe draft in the middle of the year to avoid all the early-season injuries and demotions?
And they're right, to a degree. Of course we'll never eliminate all the variables. But that doesn't mean we have to invite more of them to come by, hang out and ruin our drafts. Shouldn't we try to go into week 1 with the same landscape that influenced our choices?
You'll never eliminate 100 percent of the pests in your home. In fact, at this very moment, there's a good chance that you're pretty close to a spider.
(Yes, I know that spiders actually devour many pests. Work with me here).
Does that mean you should leave your doors and windows open and welcome them all in? Of course not. You do your bets to eliminate as many as possible and deal with what's left over. Same with your fantasy game-changers.
Just as you take common-sense measures with pest control, we should do the same with drafts and auctions. Schedule them as close to the start of the regular season as possible. I know that means coordinating a dozen schedules, but you have a full year to get it right. And since it affects the next four months of your life, I think it's worth it.
Oh, here's another argument I hear: It shouldn't matter because we all deal with the same variables. It's fair to everyone. Sure, but so is flipping coins to determine your league champion. The right method has to be fair, but all fair methods aren't right. We want the draft to mean something, and we can preserve it by holding it close to the start of the regular season.
Look, we all know that our week 14 lineup isn't going to look like our week 1 lineup. In addition to outside forces, our own thoughts and strategies will evolve. Let's not discount the very real possibility that we screwed up our own draft, or handled an in-season situation all wrong.
But that's on us. If we stumble during a race, that's our fault. But if we get held back before the gun goes off, we didn't even get to compete. If I'm going to lose, I'd rather point the finger at myself and try to learn from it. I don't want to sit and wonder what would have happened if my strategy had a chance to work.
Okay, you might say. That's all well and good, but that ship has sailed. What's the point of pointing out mistakes when it's too late to correct them?
Well, it might be too late for this season. But you plan on playing next year, don't you? Talk to the commissioner and the rest of the league and bring up moving the draft back to the end of the preseason. You should get support from a few owners who are already smarting from unforeseen circumstances. Even in leagues where it's hard to get things changed, you should have a little momentum in this area. If you wait until the summertime, the resistance to change will return and you might get stuck with another early draft. And that isn't good for anyone.
If you can't change a mistake, you can choose to learn from it. Early drafts are an unforced error you can eliminate by selecting your players once they're ready to start the season, and not sooner. You won't eliminate changes due to roster cuts, but you will avoid some major injuries. And the draft will reflect what we'll see in week 1. Good luck.
When do you hold your draft or auction? Would you rather see it moved closer to the regular season, or is it no big deal since every owner deals with the same issue? Share your thoughts below.