PITTSBURGH (at Clev.)
The Steelers went to the AFC Championship last year, while the Browns have been struggling for years, so no surprise that Pittsburgh opened as a 9.5-point favorite. Cleveland is starting a rookie at quarterback. But hold on. The Browns have been stockpiling some talent on defense -- one of only two teams that didn't allow a touchdown in the first half of any of their preseason games. And the Steelers in recent years haven't been nearly as good away from Heinz Field. They've lost two of their last six at this stadium, and two other games were lower-scoring, defensive battles. Pittsburgh's offense scored only one touchdown last year, leading 17-9 in the fourth quarter before sealing it with a defensive touchdown late. The Steelers should win this game, but it's more likely to be a lower-scoring, sloppy game. That's the theory, anyway. We put together the same kind of forecast for the opener at Washington last year and the Steelers rolled to a 38-16 win. ... Play him at home but not on the road. That tends to be the rule of thumb for Ben Roethlisberger. It occasionally backfires (like when he threw for 300 yards and 3 TDs in that Monday night opener at Washington) but over the long haul, it pays dividends. In his last 16 games at home, Roethlisberger has averaged 341 passing yards, with 50 TDs. But in his last 16 on the road, he's averaged 62 fewer yards and thrown only 17 TDs. It sounds counterintuitive to sit Roethlisberger against Cleveland (the Browns!), but even against this opponent, he's tended to come up short.
| Roethlisberger at Cleveland | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Result | Yards | TD |
| 2011 | W 13-9 | 221 | 0 |
| 2013 | W 27-11 | 217 | 2 |
| 2014 | L 10-31 | 228 | 1 |
| 2015 | W 28-12 | 349 | 3 |
| 2016 | W 24-9 | 167 | 0 |
Roethlisberger is capable of putting up 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns against any opponent, of course, but the trends indicate he should be slotted well short of the top quarterbacks this week. ... Unlike Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell tends to play better on the road. Perhaps because they're more reluctant to take chances away from Heinz Field, he tends to get more carries on the road. Bell has run for more than 145 yards in five regular ...
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... season games in his career, and they've all been on the road. He's also averaged 101 rushing and 38 receiving yards in his five career starts against the Browns. But that all needs to be put on hold this week. Bell missed all of the offseason workouts and all of training camp while haggling over his contract, so unlikely that the team will want to give him 20-plus carries in his first game back. They'll probably want to ease him in somewhat, making sure they don't set everything back with an injury. Normally Bell is on the field for essentially every play. This week, he'll probably be pulled for a few series. With his run-catch skills, however, he's still very much in the mix to be a top-5 back. Cleveland had a bottom-5 run defense last year, allowing 143 yards per game, with 18 TDs. ... Antonio Brown is probably the game's best wide receiver, and he's a threat to go over 100 yards against every opponent. But with the offense tending to bog down away from Heinz Field, there's a playmaking dimension that's lost. He's averaged 7.4 catches for 91 yards in his last 32 games on the road -- that's only a half catch and 19 short of what he does at home. But he hasn't gotten in the end zone nearly as often -- 33 touchdowns in his last 31 games at Heinz Field, versus only 13 TDs in his last 32 on the road. When playing at home, Brown tends to be the most productive receiver in the league. On the road, it makes sense to start pondering whether to sneak a handful of wide receivers above him. ... Martavis Bryant put up top-10 receiving numbers when he was last on the field, averaging 77 yards, with 7 TDs in 10 games. But that was two years ago, and Bryant may need a few weeks to shake off the rust and round into form. He looked pretty ordinary in the preseason games, catching 7 passes for only 43 yards. He was usually out there without Roethlisberger, and they didn't give him chances to run by defenses on vertical routes. That's what he does best, but as outlined earlier, the Steelers tend to have a lot more success with their passing offense when they're at Heinz Field. ... We're not crazy about Jesse James. The passing game tends to blog down on the road, with Roethlisberger throwing not even half as many touchdown passes. And the Steelers could work in other tight ends. They just traded for Vance McDonald, and Xavier Grimble could also be a factor. James averaged only 21 yards in 16 games last year, with 3 TDs. ... The Steelers Defense looks very good. It's an above-average group anyway, and the Browns are starting DeShone Kizer. He's not only a rookie, but the right kind of rookie -- he'll try to force balls downfield, and he'll hold the ball too long at times. In 49 attempts in the preseason (against more vanilla defenses) he took 5 sacks and threw an interception. Pittsburgh has scored defensive touchdowns in three of its last five games at Cleveland (but none in its last five at home against the Browns). ... Chris Boswell looks good. The offense tends to bog down at times on the road, and that can result in additional field goal attempts -- like those games with 6 field goals late last year at Cincinnati and at Kansas City. Including the postseason, Boswell is a rare kicker who's averaged more points on the road than at home. Of his 16 career games with 8-plus points, 10 have come on the road.