DETROIT (at Green Bay)
We're slotting the Lions slightly higher than usual this week. They couldn't put the ball in the end zone on Sunday night, but they at least moved the ball well against a good defense. And while they're on the road ...
this time, they're playing against a lesser defense. Only nine teams have allowed more yards than the Packers, and only 11 have allowed more points. Offensively, the Lions have scored 14 touchdowns in seven games -- 2 per week. This defense has allowed 16 touchdowns in its last six. So 2-3 TDs looks like the reasonable expectation, with 2 TDs more likely. ... Matthew Stafford can be frustrating at times. He's the only quarterback in the league in the last 20 years who's thrown for over 400 yards without throwing a touchdown pass, and he's done it twice (most recently on Sunday night). In two of his last three seasons, he's been a disappointment as a scorer, with lots of yards but only 24 and 22 TDs. But let's not give up on him just yet. The league's highest-paid player can sling it. If not for a controversial reversal on the final play against Atlanta, he would have thrown multiple touchdowns in five of six games, with the only
This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 18 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... blemish at Minnesota (no touchdowns) against a really good defense. The Packers, on the other hand, have a defense that's average at best against the pass, and Stafford has a comfort level against them. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in five straight games against this opponent, with three of those games at Lambeau. He went over 340 in both Green Bay games last year, with 5 TDs. Not that he's going for quite that kind of total, but 270-plus and a couple of touchdowns could be in the play. Of the 14 touchdowns scored by the Lions, 12 have come on passes. ... Ameer Abdullah is quick. At times he looks like another Barry Sanders. But they haven't quite got him dialed in. He's averaging 53 rushing and 11 receiving yards, with just one touchdown. They spelled him more on Sunday night, with Dwayne Washington coming in to bang between the tackles. They'll use Theo Riddick in obvious passing situations; Riddick caught 7 passes in his game at Green Bay last year. It's a committee, and with the Lions having a lesser offensive line, they haven't been able to get it going. The Lions are averaging only 82 rushing yards (more than only four teams) and have scored only 2 rushing touchdowns. The Packers rank 26th in run defense, but the Lions probably won't make that a big part of their game. Washington left the Steelers game with a concussion. If he needs to sit out a week, they'll plug in Zach Zenner as their goal-line back (in the unlikely event they end up running the ball from the 1). ... The projection looks fine for the passing game, so we're ranking the receivers in their usual spots. Marvin Jones came up big against this opponent last year, with 6 catches for 205 yards and 2 TDs in the game at Lambeau, and 5 catches for 76 yards in the return leg. With that history, and Golden Tate playing with a damaged wing, makes sense to slot Jones as the top guy this week. Tate looked just fine against the Steelers, with 7 catches for 86 yards. Tate played fine against the Packers last year, with 10 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in the two games. TJ Jones will be the third piece, and those scrambling for a warm body to plug in this week, he might be the best available option on the waiver wire. He caught 4 passes for 88 yards against Pittsburgh, on 8 targets. Kenny Golladay has missed the last four games and may have aggravated his hamstring injury in practice last week; he didn't practice at all on Thursday or Friday. ... The Lions will use both Darren Fells and Eric Ebron at tight end. Fells has been playing more and playing better recently, with 3 TDs in his last three games. Detroit's fans have given up on Ebron, and the team probably should have done the same long ago (rather than picking up his fifth-year option). Ebron has caught only one touchdown all year, and he's finished under 10 yards in most games. ... The Lions Defense looks average in terms of pass rush. Green Bay has a youngster starting at quarterback and has had offensive line issues -- 24 sacks in seven games. But Detroit doesn't have a great pass rush, with just 13 sacks in seven games. The Lions have some defensive backs who'll find the ball; only two teams so far have intercepted more passes (10 in seven games). Brett Hundley is inexperienced, but they'll probably protect him with a run-oriented game plan. When he came off the bench cold at Minnesota, he threw 3 interceptions and took 4 sacks. But Hundley made it out of the New Orleans game with just one sack and one pick. In Jamal Agnew, the Lions have one of the league's top half-dozen kick returners; he's scored 2 TDs already on punt returns. ... Matt Prater has had games with 4 and 5 field goals, but they've both come at Ford Field. Those kind of games are less likely on the road. He's scored 6, 6 and 8 points in his three road games this year, and he's scored 2, 6 and 6 points in his games at Lambeau the last three years. The Packers have been a middle-of-the-pack team against kickers so far this year, allowing 7.6 points per game.