We sent out the revised Redrafter rankings yesterday. Those are the individual projections for the rest of the season – how each player will perform in the remaining five games. But taking a step back, we can look not at individuals but how entire offenses should produce in the remaining games.
When looking at touchdowns, my preference is to look at 16-game blocks. That’s an NFL season. That is, instead of discussion how many more touchdown passes and runs a team might generate, I prefer to talk about how many touchdowns it would score if we were starting a new 16-game season today. (So you take the remaining five games and project them out over a full season).
Schedules weigh heavily into these forecasts, which is why you see three really good offenses – Eagles, Saints, Patriots – hovering around 50-51 touchdowns even though they’re playing better than that. Philadelphia’s next three are at Seattle, at the Rams and at the Giants (who might have just a little bit of a pulse left for that divisional game). With most fantasy leagues ending before Week 17, I don’t get those games as much weight.
But regardless: those look like the three best offenses by far. Plenty of lousy offenses to chose from, and I’ve got nine averaging under 2 touchdowns in the final five weeks.
Pittsburgh has been putting up big numbers recently, but I expect they’ll cool off. The schedule is now getting much harder, with the next three at Cincinnati and then at home against Baltimore and New England (defenses that should play a lot better than what we’ve seen out of Tennessee and Green Bay the last two weeks).
| TEAM PROJECTIONS (offensive TDs) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Philadelphia | 34.4 | 16.3 | 50.7 |
| New Orleans | 28.8 | 21.6 | 50.4 |
| New England | 36.0 | 14.4 | 50.4 |
| Washington | 28.5 | 15.2 | 43.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 29.6 | 12.8 | 42.4 |
| Minnesota | 25.6 | 16.0 | 41.6 |
| LA Chargers | 29.6 | 10.9 | 40.5 |
| Atlanta | 26.9 | 13.4 | 40.3 |
| Tennessee | 21.6 | 18.4 | 40.0 |
| Seattle | 33.6 | 6.1 | 39.7 |
| Oakland | 25.6 | 13.9 | 39.5 |
| Carolina | 21.1 | 18.4 | 39.5 |
| LA Rams | 23.5 | 14.7 | 38.2 |
| Dallas | 23.2 | 12.8 | 36.0 |
| Detroit | 28.8 | 6.4 | 35.2 |
| Jacksonville | 17.6 | 16.8 | 34.4 |
| Kansas City | 23.2 | 11.2 | 34.4 |
| Cincinnati | 27.2 | 6.4 | 33.6 |
| Arizona | 23.7 | 9.3 | 33.0 |
| NY Jets | 22.9 | 10.1 | 33.0 |
| Buffalo | 20.0 | 12.8 | 32.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 26.1 | 6.4 | 32.5 |
| Green Bay | 19.5 | 12.5 | 32.0 |
| Miami | 25.1 | 5.9 | 31.0 |
| Houston | 20.8 | 9.6 | 30.4 |
| San Francisco | 17.6 | 12.5 | 30.1 |
| Baltimore | 18.4 | 10.7 | 29.1 |
| Cleveland | 16.8 | 12.0 | 28.8 |
| Denver | 18.4 | 10.4 | 28.8 |
| Indianapolis | 18.9 | 8.8 | 27.7 |
| Chicago | 15.5 | 11.7 | 27.2 |
| NY Giants | 18.4 | 7.2 | 25.6 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Saints, Panthers, Eagles and Jaguars leading the way.
Plenty of lousy teams to pick from at the bottom, but the Lions, Bengals, Dolphins and Bucs appear to be the worst.
On this chart, you’re seeing rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns per game, and fantasy points (6 for touchdowns, 1 for every 10 yards).
| TEAM PROJECTIONS (rushing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| New Orleans | 140 | 1.35 | 22.1 |
| Carolina | 150 | 1.15 | 21.9 |
| Philadelphia | 145 | 1.02 | 20.6 |
| Jacksonville | 140 | 1.05 | 20.3 |
| Tennessee | 120 | 1.15 | 18.9 |
| Minnesota | 115 | 1.00 | 17.5 |
| Washington | 115 | .95 | 17.2 |
| LA Rams | 115 | .92 | 17.0 |
| New England | 115 | .90 | 16.9 |
| Chicago | 125 | .73 | 16.9 |
| Dallas | 118 | .80 | 16.6 |
| Atlanta | 115 | .84 | 16.5 |
| Buffalo | 115 | .80 | 16.3 |
| Green Bay | 110 | .78 | 15.7 |
| Baltimore | 115 | .67 | 15.5 |
| Denver | 115 | .65 | 15.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 105 | .80 | 15.3 |
| Cleveland | 105 | .75 | 15.0 |
| Oakland | 95 | .87 | 14.7 |
| Kansas City | 105 | .70 | 14.7 |
| San Francisco | 93 | .78 | 14.0 |
| Houston | 95 | .60 | 13.1 |
| NY Jets | 93 | .63 | 13.1 |
| LA Chargers | 90 | .68 | 13.1 |
| NY Giants | 100 | .45 | 12.7 |
| Indianapolis | 90 | .55 | 12.3 |
| Seattle | 90 | .38 | 11.3 |
| Arizona | 75 | .58 | 11.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 80 | .40 | 10.4 |
| Miami | 80 | .37 | 10.2 |
| Cincinnati | 70 | .40 | 9.4 |
| Detroit | 70 | .40 | 9.4 |
For passing production, I’ve got the Patriots, Seahawks and Steelers at the top.
The Browns, Ravens, Jaguars and Giants are near the bottom, but with how little the Bears are throwing the ball, they are by far the worst passing offense in the league.
The “fantasy points” column on this one is the same as rushing – 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.
| TEAM PROJECTIONS (passing) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| New England | 305 | 2.25 | 44.0 |
| Seattle | 280 | 2.10 | 40.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 290 | 1.85 | 40.1 |
| New Orleans | 280 | 1.80 | 38.8 |
| LA Chargers | 275 | 1.85 | 38.6 |
| Washington | 278 | 1.78 | 38.5 |
| Philadelphia | 250 | 2.15 | 37.9 |
| Detroit | 270 | 1.80 | 37.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 270 | 1.63 | 36.8 |
| Atlanta | 265 | 1.68 | 36.6 |
| Oakland | 265 | 1.60 | 36.1 |
| LA Rams | 265 | 1.47 | 35.3 |
| Minnesota | 250 | 1.60 | 34.6 |
| Arizona | 245 | 1.48 | 33.4 |
| Cincinnati | 230 | 1.70 | 33.2 |
| Kansas City | 240 | 1.45 | 32.7 |
| Tennessee | 245 | 1.35 | 32.6 |
| Miami | 225 | 1.57 | 31.9 |
| NY Jets | 230 | 1.43 | 31.6 |
| Dallas | 225 | 1.45 | 31.2 |
| San Francisco | 243 | 1.10 | 30.9 |
| Carolina | 225 | 1.32 | 30.4 |
| Houston | 225 | 1.30 | 30.3 |
| Green Bay | 225 | 1.22 | 29.8 |
| Denver | 225 | 1.15 | 29.4 |
| Indianapolis | 220 | 1.18 | 29.1 |
| Buffalo | 215 | 1.25 | 29.0 |
| NY Giants | 215 | 1.15 | 28.4 |
| Jacksonville | 210 | 1.10 | 27.6 |
| Baltimore | 205 | 1.15 | 27.4 |
| Cleveland | 210 | 1.05 | 27.3 |
| Chicago | 190 | .97 | 24.8 |
—Ian Allan