We could see five quarterbacks selected in the first round, but I don’t think there are any slam dunks. All of these guys (I think) look below average in comparison to what you would typically expect to get with a top-5 pick.

With Baker Mayfield, he’s small, and he’s coming out of a college spread system. It’s reasonable to wonder if his game will translate.

With Lamar Jackson, we could be looking at the best athlete to play the position since Michael Vick. Insane mobility and a strong arm. But there are some who think he can’t play quarterback – doesn’t have the accuracy and decision-making feel. One school of thought is that he should just give up on playing quarterback right now, moving to wide receiver.

Josh Allen has a rocket-launcher arm and has shown flashes, but he played his college ball at Wyoming. More troubling, he completed only 56 percent of his passes last year. In the last 10 years, only four quarterbacks have completed fewer than 61 percent of their passes in their final season. Matt Ryan (59 percent) has been a good pro. Josh Freeman and Jake Locker finished lower than Ryan and busted. (Sam Bradford completely only 57 percent his final season at Oklahoma but suffered a season-ending injury in his second game – he posted huge numbers in his previous season.)

Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold probably will be the first two quarterbacks taken, but neither wowed in their final year of college.

Below, I’ve got these five prospects interspersed with the quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 10 years. They are ordered by completion percentage, and by that measure, Mayfield (playing in a numbers-inflating spread system) is near the top, and the other four are all below average.

For teams looking for a quarterback, the safest route might be to sign Kirk Cousins (or even Drew Brees, if he’s truly available), allowing them to steer clear of possibly misfiring with a premium draft pick.

2012Brandon Weeden72.3%4,7273713
2012Robert Griffin III71.7%4,293376
2012Andrew Luck71.3%3,5173710
2014Teddy Bridgewater71.0%3,970314
2018Baker Mayfield70.5%4,627436
2014Johnny Manziel69.9%4,1143713
2015Marcus Mariota68.3%4,454424
2017Mitchell Trubisky68.0%3,748306
2013EJ Manuel68.0%3,3972310
2010Tim Tebow67.8%2,895215
2014Blake Bortles67.8%3,581259
2017Deshaun Watson67.0%4,5934117
2016Paxton Lynch66.8%3,776284
2011Cam Newton66.1%2,854307
2009Mark Sanchez65.8%3,2073410
2017Patrick Mahomes65.7%5,0524110
2015Jameis Winston65.3%3,9072518
2016Jared Goff64.5%4,7194313
2008Joe Flacco63.5%4,263235
2011Blaine Gabbert63.4%3,186169
2018Sam Darnold63.1%4,1432613
2018Josh Rosen62.6%3,7562610
2016Carson Wentz62.5%1,651174
2012Ryan Tannehill61.6%3,7442915
2011Christian Ponder61.5%2,044208
2009Matthew Stafford61.4%3,4592510
2008Matt Ryan59.3%4,5073119
2018Lamar Jackson59.1%3,6602710
2009Josh Freeman58.6%2,945208
2010Sam Bradford56.5%56220
2018Josh Allen56.3%1,812166
2011Jake Locker55.4%2,265179

—Ian Allan