INDIANAPOLIS (vs Dallas)
Dallas has a top-5 defense. Only Baltimore has allowed fewer points, and only three defenses have allowed fewer yards. So it's reasonable to downgrade the Colts a little. But ...
they've played three other games against top-5 defenses this year, and they've averaged 4 TDs in those games -- 4 and 3 TDs against the Texans, and 5 TDs in a one-sided win over the Titans. Indianapolis got shut out in Jacksonville two weeks ago, of curse, but otherwise this offense has scored at least 3 TDs in nine straight games. With this being a playoff-type game for the Colts (needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive) we're figuring they'll likely ...
This report is taken from today's Week 15 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 21 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... come up with another 3 TDs on Sunday. ... We're not crazy about the running game. The Colts have had a pair of games with at least 220 rushing yards, but they're not going to do that. Marlon Mack isn't going to run for 100 yards. The Cowboys rank 3rd in run defense, and they've been pretty tough all along. They haven't allowed more than 80 yards in any of their last five games, and that includes one against the Saints. Other than their two outlier games, the Colts have averaged only 81 rushing yards, with 5 TD runs in 11 games, and that kind of production probably is about their ceiling. Since his two big games, Mack has averaged 47 rushing and 7 receiving yards, with 2 TDs in five games. That's the kind of player we're talking about. He could be spelled liberally by Nyheim Hines, who's a more dangerous weapon in the passing game. Hines has averaged 10 rushing and 25 receiving yards in his last five games, with no touchdowns. ... Dallas ranks 8th in pass defense. It's held Drew Brees and Carson Wentz to 127 and 228 passing yards the last two weeks. But we're not interested in too seriously considering sitting down Andrew Luck. He's just playing too well right now. Luck, of course, couldn't put the ball in the end zone in Jacksonville two weeks ago, but that game was on the road against a pass defense that might be even better. And if we set that one aside, Luck has been on a pretty remarkable run. He passed for 399 yards and 2 TDs last week in Houston. Prior to the Jacksonville disaster, he threw at least 3 TDs in eight straight games. That included three games against top-5 pass defenses (Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tennessee). Playing at home, and with Frank Reich cleverly designing plays, Luck very easily could come up with another game with 300 yards and 3 TDs. When Dallas played at Philadelphia last month, Wentz went for 360 yards and 2 TDs. ... With the way this game is shaping up, we're thinking Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton can keep things rolling. Ebron has scored 13 touchdowns in 13 games; they're using him extensively in the red zone, and he's also getting more looks elsewhere on the field (now that Jack Doyle is one injured reserve). The Cowboys have one of the better defenses, but Zach Ertz caught 14 passes and 2 TDs against them in a game last month. Hilton is one of the game's best big-play receivers, and he's on top of his game. He's gone for at least 125 yards in three of his last four games. Hilton has caught only 6 touchdowns in 11 games, which isn't great, but he's gotten more looks in the red zone this year than he has in the past. In general, best to leave him in lineups and let him do his thing. ... The other Indianapolis wide receivers tend to be mostly decoys. Dontrelle Inman has been their 2nd-best receiver lately, but he missed the Houston game with a shoulder injury. He didn't practice at all last week. They signed Ryan Grant to a decent contract in the offseason, but he's never been able to get things going -- a smaller receiver who doesn't get much separation or win enough contested balls. Chester Rogers catches a few balls out of the slot (5 for 36 on Sunday) but has scored only 1 touchdown all year. Youngster Zach Pascal might be better than those veterans; he comes off the best game of his career -- 5 for 68 and a touchdown at Houston. ... Adam Vinatieri oddly has gotten worse as the team around him has gotten better. When the team opened the season 1-5, he averaged 8 points, with double-digit points in half of those games. The team has lost only once in its last seven games, but Vinatieri has averaged fewer than 6 points in those games -- the offense has been scoring touchdowns rather than field goals. Here's a game where Vinatieri might be called on to do more. With a good defense, the Cowboys have more potential to force some field goal attempts. ... The numbers tell us the Colts Defense will lead the league in sacks this week. That might seem odd, with them having a pass rush that's only slightly above-average, but they're playing against Dak Prescott. While Prescott has been playing better recently (helping the Cowboys win 5 straight) he has problems with getting caught holding the ball. He's taken a league-high 48 sacks. Even during this win streak, he's continued to take sacks -- 4, 2, 4, 7 and 3 in his last five. The Colts have 35 sacks, and the combined 83 is the largest number on the board this week. Prescott also has fumbled 12 times, the most of any player, while the Colts have recovered 10 fumbles (tying for 3rd-most in the league). For interceptions, however, it looks like a bottom-10 matchup. Prescott had a couple of ugly picks against Philadelphia, but he's thrown only 7 interceptions all year (in general, he doesn't force throws). The Colts don't have a kick returner of any magnitude.