Previously on this site, I speculated about possibly selecting Patrick Mahomes with a top-10 pick. If you can get a quarterback who’s going to throw about 40 touchdowns, I think it makes sense to take him up in that range.
But the way things are shaping up in Kansas City, I now think it’s more likely Mahomes finishes with fewer than 40 touchdowns. Maybe a lot fewer, if they can’t keep Sammy Watkins healthy and get him to play like he did earlier in this career (which, in my eyes, would be large assumptions).
I don’t think Tyreek Hill will play at all for them in 2019. That’s huge. He’s a remarkably talented wide receiver, but with his extensive off-field problems, I don’t think we’ll see him on the field this year.
They released Kareem Hunt. I don’t think that one will hurt as much. Damien Williams did a pretty good job filling in for Hunt last year.
Center Mitch Morse signed a four-year contract worth $44.5 million with Buffalo. They won’t be as good at that spot.
Plus there’s the reality that it’s really difficult to match a really good season.
In the 16-game era, 10 other offenses have scored 60-plus touchdowns in a season. None of them came back and scored 60-plus again the next year. The 2001 Rams came closest, scoring 57 touchdowns the season after scoring 63. The 1982 Chargers also held up very well. The year after scoring 60 touchdowns, they scored 34 touchdowns in the nine-game (labor stoppage) 1982 season.
Kansas City scored 66 touchdowns last year. For 2019, I would think 50 touchdowns sounds about right – down about one per week.
OFFENSES SCORING 60 TOUCHDOWNS (the next year) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Previous | Run | Pass | Total | Diff |
2014 | Denver Broncos | 16-55-71 | 15 | 40 | 55 | 16 |
1985 | Miami Dolphins | 18-49-67 | 19 | 31 | 50 | 17 |
2008 | New England Patriots | 17-50-67 | 21 | 21 | 42 | 25 |
2019 | Kansas City | 16-50-66 | ? | ? | ? | ? |
2001 | St. Louis Rams | 26-37-63 | 20 | 37 | 57 | 6 |
2012 | Green Bay Packers | 12-51-63 | 9 | 40 | 49 | 14 |
2012 | New Orleans Saints | 16-46-62 | 10 | 43 | 53 | 9 |
2005 | Indianapolis Colts | 10-51-61 | 18 | 31 | 49 | 12 |
1982 | San Diego Chargers | 26-34-60 | 15 | 19 | 34 | --- |
1995 | San Francisco 49ers | 23-37-60 | 19 | 29 | 48 | 12 |
1999 | San Francisco 49ers | 19-41-60 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 32 |
—Ian Allan