Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is Ronald Jones now an elite running back? How can somebody score 4 TDs one week and none the next? Shutdown corners, high-scoring rookies, declining Todd Gurley and more.
Question 1
I was looking at the Redrafter and it has Ronald Jones ranked 12th for running backs and Robert Woods 16th for wide receivers. I currently have Kamara, Lindsay, Mixon, and Henderson at running back and Thomas, Adams and Emmanuel Sanders at wide receiver. This is a 16-team league and we’re allowed to keep 4. Should I move Mixon in a deal to get Jones and Woods or stand pat with what I have? Don’t think Mixon will do much this year and want to make a run for the championship. Would like to here your thoughts.
BRIAN ROWELL (Saint Johns, MI)
If we’re drafting guys today, I definitely want Jones before three of your running backs (Lindsay, Mixon, Henderson). Tampa Bay has changed its backfield. The time-share with Peyton Barber is over. It’s Jones’ gig now, and he’s going to be on the field 80-plus percent of the time in all of their remaining games. So far the Jones-Barber tag-team has averaged 82 rushing and 20 receiving yards, with 6 TDs. That’s production that’s been split. Now, the vast majority of those stats are going to flow through Jones. Definitely a guy who could help you lift the trophy this year. The decision-making gets harder if you try to analyze long term, factoring in what might happen in 2020 and beyond. Darrell Henderson should develop into the top back for the Rams, and Mixon could still have some top-10 seasons in him. But for 2019, I want Jones. With Robert Woods, the bar is lowered considerably. He’s ranked 16th, but if he was ranked 26th, I don’t think anybody would ask about it. If the Rams lay an egg on Sunday, he may be 36th or even 46th in a week or two. He’s not having a great year. He’s caught one touchdown, and he’s on pace for just under 1,000 yards. The Rams might be missing Brandin Cooks for a bunch of games, which could hurt him. Thus far they’ve been heavily using Cooper Kupp in the red zone. With the Woods grade, it’s influenced by the nice work he’s done the last two years, rather than so much what he’s been doing recently.
Question 2
After their monster performances with 4 touchdowns, Marvin Jones and Tevin Coleman put up dud games. How have other 4-TD players done in their next game?
Bob McKinlay (Casselberry, FL)
Aaron Jones also scored 4 touchdowns in a game this year, and he also didn’t score at all the next week. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Especially with pass catchers. Since 2000, there have been seven games with a wide receiver catching 4 touchdowns. Those guys in their next games combined (in seven games) to cach only 31 passes for 423 yards and 3 TDs.
| WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 4 TD (next game) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Opp | Run | Rec | TD |
| Joe Horn, N.O. | 2003 | at Jac. | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson, Bal. | 2003 | S.F. | 2 | 71 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens, Dall. | 2007 | NYJ | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Randy Moss, N.E. | 2007 | Phi. | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Eric Decker, Den. | 2013 | Ten. | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones, Cin. | 2013 | at Mia. | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones, Det. | 2019 | NYG | 4 | 22 | 0 |
The hit rate is better with running backs, but not as good as you would expect. Since 2000, there have been 42 games with running backs scoring 4 TDs. Only 11 of those 42 scored multiple touchdowns again the next week. Slightly over half (24 of 42) at least scored in their next game, but 18 didn’t get in the end zone.
| RUNNING BACKS WITH 4 TDs (next game) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Opp | Run | Rec | TD |
| Fred Taylor, Jac. | 2000 | Ten. | 104 | 22 | 1 |
| Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 2000 | at T.B. | 79 | 53 | 4 |
| Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 2000 | at N.O. | 220 | 41 | 3 |
| Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 2000 | Was. | 33 | 88 | 1 |
| Mike Anderson, Den. | 2000 | Sea. | 131 | 0 | 2 |
| Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 2001 | Atl. | 168 | 58 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis, Den. | 2002 | at Oak. | 52 | 5 | 1 |
| Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 2002 | at Ariz. | 178 | 58 | 1 |
| Priest Holmes, K.C. | 2002 | Jac. | 84 | 32 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 2002 | S.F. | 96 | 25 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis, Den. | 2003 | Clev. | 139 | 6 | 2 |
| Derrick Blaylock, K.C. | 2004 | Ind. | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes, K.C. | 2004 | Ind. | 143 | 82 | 3 |
| T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 2004 | at Sea. | 52 | 11 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee, Buff. | 2004 | at Mia. | 91 | 4 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2005 | Buff. | 67 | 22 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 2005 | at Was. | 98 | 4 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 2005 | Dall. | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai, Ind. | 2006 | at Ten. | 56 | 11 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2006 | at Den. | 105 | 74 | 4 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2006 | Oak. | 109 | 5 | 2 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2006 | at K.C. | 66 | 72 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson, K.C. | 2006 | at St.L. | 172 | 0 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush, N.O. | 2006 | at Dall. | 37 | 125 | 1 |
| Steven Jackson, St.L. | 2006 | last game | -- | -- | -- |
| Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 2007 | at Pitt. | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 2007 | Hou. | 90 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 2008 | at NYG | 131 | 72 | 2 |
| DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 2008 | T.B. | 186 | 6 | 2 |
| DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 2008 | at N.O. | 178 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Turner, Atl. | 2008 | at S.D. | 120 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 2008 | S.D. | 125 | 8 | 1 |
| Darren McFadden, Oak. | 2010 | Sea. | 111 | 24 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 2011 | at Atl. | 112 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Martin, T.B. | 2012 | S.D. | 68 | 51 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 2013 | Ind. | 106 | 38 | 1 |
| Jonas Gray, N.E. | 2014 | Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 2014 | at K.C. | 124 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 2015 | at Oak. | 55 | 53 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 2017 | at Ten. | 118 | 158 | 2 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 2018 | at NYG | 170 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 2019 | Det. | 47 | 13 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman, S.F. | 2019 | at Ariz. | 23 | 13 | 0 |
Question 3
What 2 RBs to start and why? Montgomery vs DET. Gurley vs PIT. Singletary vs CLE. I’m leaning toward Montgomery & Singletary but Gurley was my #1 pick and its killing me to go against him. But I'm not liking the fact that he may share the ball with Brown & Henderson. This is probably do or die week for me to make the playoffs.
DAVID MARCUS (Glenmoore, PA)
I think you’ve got it scoped out correctly. You made a mistake two months ago by using your first-round pick on Gurley. I don’t think you compound that by making more bad decisions now. It’s over. Gurley isn’t an elite running back anymore. It’s time to let the young guys take over.
Question 4
Scrambling for a RB waiver pick this week. Kareem Hunt or Damien Williams seem to be my best choices.
Matthew Dolan (Walnut Creek, CA)
I’m not a big Hunt fan. I expect he’ll get a few change-of-pace touches, but I consider him to be more of a handcuff. If you take Hunt, I don’t think he’s playing for you unless Nick Chubb gets hurt, and we’re getting late in the game. The odds of getting some production go way up with Williams. He’s been battling for playing time with LeSean McCoy, and Williams seems to be winning that battle right now – played a lot more in the Vikings game.
Question 5
League host sites typically show how a given team rates against each position (i.e. #24 vs QB). For the WR position, I'd love to know which teams excel (or don't excel) vs. WR1s & WR2s (for teams with a fairly defined WR1/WR2). Who have been the true shutdown corners thus far? Which #2 corners are teams picking on, with success?
Holmes McQueen ()
It’s hard for cornerbacks to shut down anyone nowadays, the way the game is structured. Even the best ones can get torched. Had you asked me a month ago, for example, I might have identified Patrick Peterson and Xavier Rhodes as two of the guys who should be avoided. But Peterson had a rough night last Thursday against the 49ers, and Rhodes has been giving up a lot of plays. Right now, I’d say there are only two who really get might attention. Stephon Gillmore in New England, and Jalen Ramsey with the Rams. Those are the two where I start getting worried about how many looks my No. 1 receiver might get if he’s playing against them. The Patriots have allowed only one touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Buffalo is sitting at 2. The Bears and Cowboys have allowed 4 TD passes to wide receivers.
Question 6
An owner in our league (10 teams) waived Josh Jacobs last week (any comment you’re thinking is probably appropriate) and the rest of the league is salivating for a chance to get him this week. We have a silent bid process for FAs and a set budget of money for the year to bid on free agents. Where do you rate Jacobs for "rest of the year" and what percent of your entire budget would you bid on him? Thanks for any help!
BILL PETERS (Roselle, IL)
I would be willing to bid all of my available dollars, if necessary. I like what the Raiders are doing with their running game. They’ve run for at least 155 yards in five of their last six games. They’ve put together a good offensive line, they’re looking to pound the ball, and Jacobs is their guy. I think he might be a top-5 back the rest of the way. If a player of that caliber is available on the waiver wire, I think you do whatever it takes to get him.
Question 7
Here is a trivia question for you: <b>Raider rookies:</b> The Raiders are getting impressive contributions from their rookie class, with a franchise-record four TDs in last week’s win over Detroit. Josh Jacobs is leading the way with 740 yards rushing and 6 TDs, while tight end Foster Moreau has added 3 TD catches and receiver Hunter Renfrow has 2. The 11 TDs from rookies are five more than the next-highest team, Washington, and tied for the most through eight games since which NFL team had 16 in 1983?
Johnny Bazzano (Santa Rosa, CA)
I was not aware of this. I haven’t double-checked the answer, but 1983 is a huge hint. There was a certain upright runner who piled up a lot of yards and touchdowns that year. According to the search tools at Pro Football Reference there have been 71 rookies in the Super Bowl era who have scored at least 10 touchdowns.
| ROOKIES WITH 10 TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Year | Tm | TD |
| Franco Harris | 1972 | PIT | 11 |
| Jon Keyworth | 1974 | DEN | 10 |
| Don Woods | 1974 | SDG | 10 |
| Stan Fritts | 1975 | CIN | 10 |
| Sammy White | 1976 | MIN | 10 |
| Tony Dorsett | 1977 | DAL | 13 |
| Earl Campbell | 1978 | HOU | 13 |
| John Jefferson | 1978 | SDG | 13 |
| Ottis Anderson | 1979 | STL | 10 |
| Billy Sims | 1980 | DET | 16 |
| Curtis Dickey | 1980 | BAL | 13 |
| Joe Cribbs | 1980 | BUF | 12 |
| George Rogers | 1981 | NOR | 13 |
| Billy Jackson | 1981 | KAN | 11 |
| Marcus Allen | 1982 | RAI | 14 |
| Eric Dickerson | 1983 | RAM | 20 |
| Curt Warner | 1983 | SEA | 14 |
| Roger Craig | 1983 | SFO | 12 |
| Louis Lipps | 1984 | PIT | 11 |
| Daryl Turner | 1984 | SEA | 10 |
| Ron Davenport | 1985 | MIA | 13 |
| Kevin Mack | 1985 | CLE | 10 |
| Tim Spencer | 1985 | SDG | 10 |
| Herschel Walker | 1986 | DAL | 14 |
| Ickey Woods | 1988 | CIN | 15 |
| Barry Sanders | 1989 | DET | 14 |
| Eric Metcalf | 1989 | CLE | 10 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1990 | DAL | 11 |
| Ricky Watters | 1992 | SFO | 11 |
| Marshall Faulk | 1994 | IND | 12 |
| Curtis Martin | 1995 | NWE | 15 |
| Rashaan Salaam | 1995 | CHI | 10 |
| Karim Abdul-Jabbar | 1996 | MIA | 11 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1996 | STL | 11 |
| Corey Dillon | 1997 | CIN | 10 |
| Fred Taylor | 1998 | JAX | 17 |
| Randy Moss | 1998 | MIN | 17 |
| Robert Edwards | 1998 | NWE | 12 |
| Edgerrin James | 1999 | IND | 17 |
| Mike Anderson | 2000 | DEN | 15 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2001 | IND | 10 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2001 | SDG | 10 |
| Clinton Portis | 2002 | DEN | 17 |
| Willis McGahee | 2004 | BUF | 13 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2006 | JAX | 16 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2007 | MIN | 13 |
| Matt Forte | 2008 | CHI | 12 |
| Tim Hightower | 2008 | ARI | 10 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2008 | CAR | 10 |
| Steve Slaton | 2008 | HOU | 10 |
| Chris Johnson | 2008 | TEN | 10 |
| Mike Williams | 2010 | TAM | 11 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2010 | NWE | 10 |
| Cam Newton | 2011 | CAR | 14 |
| Alfred Morris | 2012 | WAS | 13 |
| Trent Richardson | 2012 | CLE | 12 |
| Doug Martin | 2012 | TAM | 12 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2013 | GNB | 11 |
| Odell Beckham | 2014 | NYG | 12 |
| Mike Evans | 2014 | TAM | 12 |
| David Johnson | 2015 | ARI | 13 |
| Todd Gurley | 2015 | STL | 10 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2016 | DAL | 16 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | KAN | 12 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2017 | NOR | 14 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2017 | KAN | 11 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | JAX | 10 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2018 | NYG | 15 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | ATL | 10 |
| Nick Chubb | 2018 | CLE | 10 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2018 | DEN | 10 |
Question 8
I'm trying to decide between Ridley, Freeman and Sanders. I can pick two. It looks like Sanders is the #1 guy in SF, and with Sanu gone, I figure that puts Ridley at #2 on a pass oriented offense (or #3 behind Jones and Hooper).I have Ryan for a QB so when Atlanta has a good day, I have a good day. What do you think?
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
I think it’s week to week with those guys. You play the matchups. I like Sanders this week, considering Seattle’s struggles against the pass. In general, I will rank Freeman higher than Ridley. As a running back, he’ll get more touches. They’re on the road this week against a good run defense (New Orleans) but Freeman isn’t only a runner but also catches dumpoff balls.
Question 9
2 potential Trades - ROS which side would you rather be one for each one? Adams & Hooper for M.Thomas & Ertz. Adams, Hooper, L.Murray for Lockett, Kelce, Mixon. Thanks in advance for your opinion!
Todd Washburn (Pleasant Prairie, WI)
I would take the second half in each trade. On trade No. 1, Thomas looks a lot better than Adams, so there’s no need to get into weighing Hooper vs. Ertz. Similarly, in the second trade, Lockett is definitely better than Adams, and the other parts of that trade might also be stronger. I would take Mixon over Murray (figuring there’s some chance Cincinnati’s running game comes on some) and I’ve still got Kelce over Hooper.