If you’re going after a difference maker at quarterback – one of the very best guys – it usually involves looking at the best teams. Of the 16 best quarterbacks of last 10 years, all came from teams that also won their divisions.

This isn’t earth-shattering. You throw close to 40 touchdowns, and your team will be winning some games. But I poked around with the numbers some on this. The chart below shows the 50 quarterbacks in the last 10 years who’ve finished with top-5 numbers using traditional scoring.

For guys who played on teams winning their division, they’re in bold. If a player came from a wild-card team, he’s got a black dot. And guys from teams that didn’t make the playoffs are in plain type.

Of the 50 quarterbacks listed, 27 came from division winners. I’ll concede that’s a little lower than I expected (especially at the No. 2 quarterback slot, where the 10 guys are evenly spread between the three categories). Of these 50 quarterbacks, nine came from wild-card teams. And 14 (28 percent) came from teams that didn’t make the playoffs.

TOP-5 QUARTERBACKS FROM THE LAST 10 SEASONS
YearPlayerGPassTDIntRunTDPoints
2022Patrick Mahomes, K.C.175,25041123584493.9
2013Peyton Manning, Den.165,4775510-311498.8
2018Patrick Mahomes, K.C.165,09750122722496.1
2021Josh Allen, Buff.174,40736157636482.7
2022Josh Allen, Buff.164,28335147627476.4
2020Josh Allen, Buff.164,54437104218473.5
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.153,1273661,2067463.0
2021Justin Herbert, LAC175,01438153023462.9
2021Tom Brady, T.B.175,3164312812457.9
2015Cam Newton, Car.163,837351063610455.5
2020Kyler Murray, Ariz.163,971261281911450.5
2016Aaron Rodgers, G.B.164,4284073694446.3
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.174,83937133812444.1
2014Andrew Luck, Ind.164,76140162733443.4
2020Aaron Rodgers, G.B.164,2994851493440.3
2020Patrick Mahomes, K.C.154,7403863082437.8
2020Deshaun Watson, Hou.164,8233374443437.6
2013• Drew Brees, N.O.165,1623912523437.3
2022Jalen Hurts, Phil.153,70122676013431.1
2018• Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.165,1293416983429.2
2018Matt Ryan, Atl.164,9243571253428.2
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.165,10933302501426.5
2022Joe Burrow, Cin.164,47535122575425.5
2016Drew Brees, N.O.165,2083715202422.4
2021Matthew Stafford, LAR174,8864117430416.6
2017• Russell Wilson, Sea.163,98334115863415.8
2016Matt Ryan, Atl.164,9443871170414.9
2019• Dak Prescott, Dall.164,90230112773412.8
2014Aaron Rodgers, G.B.164,3813852692412.0
2015Tom Brady, N.E.164,770367533410.4
2015Blake Bortles, Jac.164,42835183102406.4
2018• Andrew Luck, Ind.164,59339151480405.9
2015• Russell Wilson, Sea.164,0243485531398.5
2018Deshaun Watson, Hou.164,1652695515397.4
2014Peyton Manning, Den.164,7273915-240394.0
2014Drew Brees, N.O.164,9523317681393.5
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.153,85226124137389.5
2016Andrew Luck, Ind.154,24031133412386.1
2014Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.164,952329270383.7
2019• Russell Wilson, Sea.164,1103153423383.7
2015Carson Palmer, Ariz.164,6713511241382.0
2016Kirk Cousins, Was.164,9172512964379.5
2013Andy Dalton, Cin.164,29333201832377.0
2022• Geno Smith, Sea.174,28230113661376.7
2013Matthew Stafford, Det.164,6502919692371.4
2017• Cam Newton, Car.163,30222167546366.5
2017Tom Brady, N.E.164,577328280363.7
2013Cam Newton, Car.163,37924135856359.5
2017Kirk Cousins, Was.164,09327131794354.6
2017Matthew Stafford, Det.164,4462910980352.1

Turning our attention to the 2023, I think of the three notable AFC North quarterbacks – Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. (Sorry, Kenny Pickett). It’s not possible for all of those teams to be good. Jackson and Watson in particular could be playing for more modest teams, given the degree of difficulty in the AFC.

I like both Jackson (pictured) and Watson, but as things stand, I have both outside of the top 5 at the position. I’ve got Jackson as the No. 6 quarterback on my board, and I’ve got Watson down around 10th on my board.

—Ian Allan