The season is upon us, and many eyes on Atlanta, with a rare running back picked in the top 10. But will Bijan Robinson be an instant-impact star? Or somewhat of a disappointment?

The Falcons listed him as their third-string running back for all of August, but they have him listed now as a starter, with Tyler Allgeier second on the depth chart. Cordarrelle Patterson is listed as a “joker”. Patterson, who has played as a running back and a wide receiver during his career, is still listed as a running back on the team’s roster.

Helping Robinson along is his dual-threat ability. He’ll be a runner and a pass catcher. And with Patterson having been out with an unspecified soft-tissue injury, Robinson could be even more involved in the passing game than usual in his debut. (I’m not sure Patterson will even play.)

Atlanta is opening at home against Carolina. The Panthers probably will be without Brian Burns, who’s their best defensive player. (He wants a new contract.)

I used to have a theory that if a running back was elite – a difference-maker – you could usually see it from the git-go. I remember Earl Campbell, Ottis Anderson, Curt Warner, Billy Sims and others tearing it up in their first games. Those guys stepped on the field, and it was immediately apparent the landscape of the league had changed. Guys might be a little slower starting now.

I ran some numbers on this. In the 32-team era, 47 rookie running backs have put up at least 10 fantasy points (PPR) in Week 1. Just over 2 per year. This is not to suggest that 10 points is some kind of benchmark we’re trying to hit; I’m just trying to get the guys listed. (I see 25 at the more impressive 15 PPR.) And for those in standard, I’m listing those points also.

The list of 47 running backs includes 16 that were first-round picks. But also note that there were 29 other running backs chosen in the first round that fell short of even 10 points per game).

I’m not suggesting Robinson has a two out of three chance of falling on his face. With that pass-catching ability, I think he’s got a real good chance of being a top-10 back in Week 1. But we could see a few more carries going to Allgeier than most are expecting.

In the chart below, first-round players tagged with black dots.

ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS IN WEEK 1
YearPlayerOppScoreFPtsPPR
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.at N.E.W 42-2740.645.6
2017Tarik Cohen, Chi.Atl.L 17-2317.325.3
2019• Josh Jacobs, Oak.Den.W 24-1623.324.3
2007• Adrian Peterson, Min.Atl.W 24-322.323.3
2008Matt Forte, Chi.at Ind.W 29-1320.123.1
2008• Chris Johnson, Ten.Jac.W 17-1018.721.7
2012Alfred Morris, Was.at N.O.W 40-3221.621.6
2017• Leonard Fournette, Jac.at Hou.W 29-718.421.4
2005• Cadillac Williams, T.B.at Min.W 24-1320.820.8
2018• Saquon Barkley, NYGJac.L 15-2018.820.8
2010• Jahvid Best, Det.at Chi.L 14-1915.620.6
2020• Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.Hou.W 34-2019.819.8
2015Ameer Abdullah, Det.at Pitt.L 28-3315.419.4
2006• Reggie Bush, N.O.at Cle.W 19-1411.918.9
2006Mike Bell, Den.at St.L.L 10-1814.818.8
2021Ty'Son Williams, Balt.at L.V.L 27-3315.418.4
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.Sea.W 27-2416.218.2
2008Kevin Smith, Det.at Atl.L 21-3414.018.0
2007• Marshawn Lynch, Buff.Den.L 14-1515.917.9
2016Jalen Richard, Oak.at N.O.W 35-3415.517.5
2017Dalvin Cook, Min.N.O.W 29-1913.716.7
2021Elijah Mitchell, S.F.at Det.W 41-3316.416.4
2012• Doug Martin, T.B.Car.W 16-1011.815.8
2011Ben Tate, Hou.Ind.W 34-715.615.6
2014Isaiah Crowell, Cle.at Pitt.L 27-3015.215.2
2020• Jonathan Taylor, Ind.at Jac.L 20-278.914.9
2019Devin Singletary, Buff.at NYJW 17-169.814.8
2020J.K. Dobbins, Balt.Cle.W 38-614.214.2
2015David Johnson, Ari.N.O.W 31-1911.512.5
2008Tim Hightower, Ari.at S.F.W 23-139.412.4
2021Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.at Atl.W 32-610.312.3
2013• Eddie Lacy, G.B.at S.F.L 28-3411.212.2
2016• Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.NYGL 19-2011.212.2
2008• Felix Jones, Dall.at Cle.W 28-1012.212.2
2022Isiah Pacheco, K.C.at Ari.W 44-2112.212.2
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.Cin.L 23-345.212.2
2020Joshua Kelley, LACat Cin.W 16-1312.012.0
2020Zack Moss, Buff.NYJW 27-178.711.7
2017• Christian McCaffrey, Car.at S.F.W 23-36.511.5
2007Brandon Jackson, G.B.Phil.W 16-137.511.5
2015Karlos Williams, Buff.Ind.W 27-1411.511.5
2017Marlon Mack, Ind.at LARL 9-4610.511.5
2020D'Andre Swift, Det.Chi.L 23-278.311.3
2014Carlos Hyde, S.F.at Dall.W 28-1711.011.0
2022Breece Hall, NYJBalt.L 9-244.110.1
2020James Robinson, Jac.Ind.W 27-209.010.0
2014Terrance West, Cle.at Pitt.L 27-3010.010.0

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

First-round running backs who didn’t put up 10 PPR points in their first game (some of these guys didn’t even play because of injuries).

FIRST-ROUNDERS WHO DIDN'T SHINE
YearPlayerTmPick
2005Ronnie BrownMia.2
2012Trent RichardsonClev.3
2005Cedric BensonChi.4
2008Darren McFaddenOak.4
2010C.J. SpillerBuff.9
2015Todd GurleySt.L.10
2009Knowshon MorenoDen.12
2010Ryan MathewsS.D.12
2008Jonathan StewartCar.13
2015Melvin GordonS.D.15
2002William GreenClev.16
2002T.J. DuckettAtl.18
2006Laurence MaroneyN.E.21
2008Rashard MendenhallPitt.23
2003Willis McGaheeBuff.23
2021Najee HarrisPitt.24
2004Steven JacksonSt.L.24
2021Travis EtienneJac.25
2004Chris PerryCin.26
2006DeAngelo WilliamsCar.27
2009Donald BrownInd.27
2003Larry JohnsonK.C.27
2018Rashaad PennySea.27
2011Mark IngramN.O.28
2006Joseph AddaiInd.30
2004Kevin JonesDet.30
2009Beanie WellsAriz.31
2018Sony MichelN.E.31
2012David WilsonNYG32

—Ian Allan