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Fantasy Index Weekly rankings and analysis are accessible to customers who've purchased The Fantasy Index SuperFanatic newsletter package, the full-season Fantasy Index Weekly subscription, or the In-Season Analyst January (Playoffs Edition).
BUCCANEERS: Tampa Bay looks like one of the better values for the opening round. It has some ability to move the ball, with the offense scoring an above-average 25 touchdowns in its last 10 games. And it’s playing against a defense that’s simply fallen apart. The Eagles ranked 30th in scoring defense, and they played their worst ball late in the year. The defense allowed 33 touchdowns in its last 10 games, 2nd-most in the league (trailing only Washington). While the Bucs finished with only 11 points and a season-low 174 yards in the earlier meeting, we’re thinking they’ll be finishing with above-average numbers in this one, with a good chance of knocking off the NFC Champs.
Baker Mayfield looks very appealing. We’re not suggesting he’ll be outperforming the franchise-type options, but he’s definitely a candidate to finish with better numbers than most of the other 11 starting quarterbacks. He’s outperformed expectations, averaging 244 passing yards in his last 10 games, with 18 TDs. And here he’s playing at home against a tire-fire secondary. Only four defenses allowed more passing yards, and only the Commanders allowed more touchdown passes. Philadelphia in its last 10 has allowed an average of 281 passing yards, with 23 TDs. If we overlay those 10-game samples, they make about 262 yards and 2 TDs look awfully possible. Thumbs up for Mayfield. He’s not a big factor as a runner, averaging 10 rushing yards in the regular season, with 1 TD.
Mike Evans looks awfully good. He’s Mayfield’s guy, catching 13 of the team’s 28 TD passes. He’s the No. 1 option in the red zone, and he’s the guy making the big catches downfield. He’s averaging 15.9 yards per catch. For the season, he averaged 4.6 catches for 74 yards, and that was with the offense averaging 238 passing yards (there should be at least 25 more passing yards in play here). Other than CeeDee Lamb, Evans looks as good as any receiver for the first round. He’s averaged 7.7 catches for 133 yards in his last three playoff games, with 2 TDs, and none of those defenses were as bad as this one.
Similarly, we’re ranking Chris Godwin higher than usual. He actually caught 4 more passes than Evans in the regular season, but with a dramatically lower playmaking quotient. Averaging 3.6 fewer yards per catch, he finished with 231 fewer yards and 11 fewer touchdowns. But he should be a chain mover. He averaged 4.9 catches for 60 yards in the regular season and logically should put up higher figures here.
While Philadelphia has struggled against the pass all year, its defense against the run has also slipped dramatically, making Rachaad White look like a credible option. The Eagles allowed a league-low 66 rushing yards in their first nine games. That included them stonewalling White back in Week 3 (14 carries, 38 yards). But Philadelphia more recently has been terrible, allowing an average of 145 rushing yards in its last eight games, with 10 TD runs. Only two defenses have allowed more rushing yards in the second half of the season, and only two have allowed more rushing touchdowns. With that in mind, White starts to stack up nicely against the running backs from the other 11 teams in action this week. They’ve been using him more anyway. He averaged 69 rushing and 32 receiving yards in his final 10 games, with 8 TDs. He caught 64 passes in the regular season, which averages to 3.8 per game. If the Eagles play anything like they’ve been playing for the last two months, White should be a solid option.
With Philadelphia’s pass defense problems, it’s logical to rank Cade Otton higher than usual, but he hasn’t factored heavily into Tampa Bay’s offense. He averaged 2.8 catches for 27 yards in the regular season, with 4 TDs.
Trey Palmer won’t be drafted in most fantasy competitions, but few teams this week will have more than two wide receivers who’ll outperform him. He’s averaged 2.7 catches in his last 10 games, with a couple of 4-catch games recently. He caught 3 TDs in the regular season. And he’ll be working against the same suspect secondary.
Chase McLaughlin looks like a middle-of-the-pack kicker. He averaged 7.1 points in the regular season, while the Eagles allowed an average of 7.2, making that seem like a reasonable landing spot. The Bucs are a lesser playoff team, but they’re playing at home against a struggling defense. The Eagles in their last six have allowed an average of 9 points to kickers. And no real concerns about weather.
The regular season numbers suggest the Buccaneers Defense should finish above-average in sacks, interceptions and fumbles. Jalen Hurts has not played as well this year, throwing 9 more interceptions. Tampa Bay recovered 13 fumbles in the regular season while the Eagles lost 12, making for the highest combined total of the week. Tampa Bay is the only team that hasn’t scored on a kick return in the last 10 years, but Deven Thompkins had a 51-yard punt return at San Francisco.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 19 "January Playoffs Edition" of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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