Taking an early look at 2024 opponents, it looks like the easiest schedules will belong to the teams in the NFC South, while the teams in the AFC North will play the hardest schedules. That’s what the numbers indicate.

The Saints and Falcons both will play schedules against teams that went a combined 131-158 last year. If teams play just like they did last year (which won’t happen) those teams will have the easiest schedules, and the Panthers and Bucs also rank in the top 5.

The Browns, Ravens and Steelers, meanwhile, project to play the hardest schedules. Cleveland’s 17 games will be against opponents that went 158-131 last year (an exactly flip of the Saint-Falcon schedules). The AFC North last year became the first division with all four teams finishing with winning records. So Deshaun Watson (pictured) faces an uphill climb as he tries to re-establish himself as an elite quarterback.

While these two divisions are on opposite ends of the schedule difficulty scale, almost half of these schedules are identical. All of the teams in these divisions will play eight games against the teams in the AFC West and NFC East. (My general lean is that it doesn’t look like a particularly notable year for strength of schedule.)

2024 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
TeamWLTPct
New Orleans1311580.453
Atlanta1311580.453
Chicago1351540.467
Carolina1351540.467
Tampa Bay1381510.478
LA Chargers1381510.478
Arizona1411480.488
Seattle1411480.488
Miami1411480.488
Tennessee1421470.491
Philadelphia1421470.491
Indianapolis1421470.491
Denver1431460.495
Minnesota1451440.502
Washington1451440.502
Cincinnati1451440.502
Kansas City1451440.502
Dallas1461430.505
San Francisco1461430.505
LA Rams1461430.505
NY Jets1461430.505
Detroit1471420.509
New England1481410.512
Jacksonville1481410.512
Las Vegas1481410.512
NY Giants1491400.516
Buffalo1491400.516
Green Bay1521370.526
Houston1521370.526
Pittsburgh1541350.533
Baltimore1551340.536
Cleveland1581310.547

If you prefer to look not at wins but points allowed, the Bears, Cowboys and Giants project to play the easiest schedules. They’ll be playing against the defenses that tended to allow the most points last year. (Chicago has the most well-rounded schedule, having also ranked in the top 5 in the win-loss category.)

Three AFC West teams will play the schedules against opponents who tended to allow the fewest points last year: Broncos, Chargers and Kansas City.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (points)
TeamPoints
Chicago22.7
Dallas22.6
NY Giants22.5
Tennessee22.4
Green Bay22.3
New Orleans22.2
Minnesota22.2
Arizona22.1
Carolina22.0
Philadelphia22.0
Seattle22.0
Atlanta21.9
New England21.8
San Francisco21.8
Tampa Bay21.8
LA Rams21.8
Jacksonville21.8
Pittsburgh21.8
Washington21.8
NY Jets21.7
Indianapolis21.6
Baltimore21.6
Buffalo21.6
Cincinnati21.4
Detroit21.4
Cleveland21.3
Miami21.3
Las Vegas21.2
Houston21.1
LA Chargers21.0
Kansas City20.9
Denver20.8

—Ian Allan