Giovani Bernard was just a second-round pick, but he was the first running back selected in April. Based on that, what can we expect from him as a rookie?
Over the last 25 years, the first running back drafted has always gone in the first round, suggesting Bernard wasn't as highly regarded -- or rather, highly valued -- as any of those previous runners. But depending on how you read the history, it looks like about 50-50 that Bernard will get his career off to a solid start.
Of those previous 25 backs, just over half (13) have put up at least 1,000 total yards in their rookie seasons. Three others were up in the 800-yard range.
Then again, note that every one of those 1,000-yard backs was selected in the top 16 picks -- more than half a round earlier than Bernard, who the Bengals took at 37th overall. Only four went outside the top 10. The backs selected closer to where Bernard was (Steven Jackson, Mark Ingram) were in the 500-800 yard range.
Rookie numbers for the first running backs drafted since 1988, sorted by total yards, are presented below.
First running back drafted, 1988-2012
Year Pk ToYds TDs Player, Team
1999 4 2139 17 Edgerrin James, Ind.
1994 2 1804 12 Marshall Faulk, Ind.
1989 3 1752 14 Barry Sanders, Det.
2000 5 1660 6 Jamal Lewis, Balt.
2007 7 1609 13 Adrian Peterson, Minn.
2001 5 1603 10 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
1997 12 1440 7 Warrick Dunn, T.B.
2012 3 1317 12 Trent Richardson, Clev.
2006 2 1307 9 Reggie Bush, N.O.
2009 12 1160 9 Knowshon Moreno, Den.
2005 2 1139 5 Ronnie Brown, Mia.
1991 14 1040 4 Leonard Russell, N.E.
2002 16 1000 6 William Green, Clev.
2004 24 862 4 Steven Jackson, St.L.
1990 2 824 2 Blair Thomas, NYJ
2008 4 784 4 Darren McFadden, Oak.
1996 6 660 5 Lawrence Phillips, St.L.
2011 28 520 5 Mark Ingram, N.O.
1998 5 517 0 Curtis Enis, Chi.
1992 9 497 0 Tommy Vardell, Clev.
2010 9 440 1 C.J. Spiller, Buff.
1988 14 174 0 Gaston Green, St.L.
2003 23 0 0 Willis McGahee, Buff.
1995 1 0 0 Ki-Jana Carter, Cinn.
--Andy Richardson