Michael Bush is a bigger, more powerful inside runner, so he should be the back Chicago features when it's inside the 3 yard line.
The Bears have a new coach, Marc Trestman, who’s been working up in Canada in recent years (putting up big numbers in the CFL). Now he’s running Chicago’s offense, and it shouldn’t take him long to figure out that Michael Bush is a much better short-yardage runner than Matt Forte.
Forte is the better back. He’s more elusive and faster, and he’s a much better receiver.
But Forte is kind of like Darren McFadden or Chris Brown (remember him with the Titans?); he’s kind of tall and lanky to be a tailback. At 6-2 and 218, he’s built almost like a wide receiver, so he’s not an effective pile pusher between the tackles.
With Bush, you get an extra 25-30 pounds of power, so he’s better when you need to pound out a touchdown at the goal line.
This can be seen in the numbers.
We track short yardage; that’s one of the things we do. Any time a team needs 1 yard to either score or keep a drive alive (3rd or 4th down), we jot those numbers down. And according to our numbers, Forte has been successful on only 7 of 21 of those plays in the last three years. That’s the worst of all 32 running backs with at least 20 attempts.
Bush has gone 36 of 48 on those plays in the same three-year time period. That’s the best.
So when the Bears have the ball on the doorstep of the end zone, look for it to be Bush, not Forte, who gets the call.
| SHORT-YARDAGE RUNNING, 2010-2012 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| No | Att | Pct | |
| Michael Bush | 36 | 48 | 75.0% |
| LeSean McCoy | 35 | 47 | 74.5% |
| Mark Ingram | 23 | 31 | 74.2% |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 25 | 35 | 71.4% |
| Adrian Peterson | 34 | 49 | 69.4% |
| Isaac Redman | 26 | 38 | 68.4% |
| Shonn Greene | 26 | 38 | 68.4% |
| Mike Tolbert | 28 | 41 | 68.3% |
| Peyton Hillis | 28 | 41 | 68.3% |
| Arian Foster | 51 | 75 | 68.0% |
| John Kuhn | 20 | 30 | 66.7% |
| Marion Barber | 19 | 30 | 63.3% |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 43 | 68 | 63.2% |
| Stevan Ridley | 17 | 27 | 63.0% |
| Ray Rice | 27 | 44 | 61.4% |
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 35 | 60.0% |
| Fred Jackson | 16 | 27 | 59.3% |
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 36 | 58.3% |
| Chris Ivory | 14 | 24 | 58.3% |
| Jackie Battle | 19 | 33 | 57.6% |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 23 | 40 | 57.5% |
| Michael Turner | 33 | 58 | 56.9% |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 11 | 20 | 55.0% |
| Frank Gore | 21 | 39 | 53.8% |
| Steven Jackson | 22 | 41 | 53.7% |
| Beanie Wells | 17 | 32 | 53.1% |
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
| Cedric Benson | 21 | 41 | 51.2% |
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 32 | 50.0% |
| Jonathan Stewart | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| Daniel Thomas | 8 | 20 | 40.0% |
| Matt Forte | 7 | 21 | 33.3% |
--Ian Allan