Jacksonville and Houston looked pretty feeble last year on offense, but let’s not disregard the possibility that each of these offenses will take a big step towards respectability this season. (And really, this concept applies also to the Buccaneers and the other lesser teams).

When teams are down, the natural tendency if for them to pick up players, improve, development and get better.

Except for Oakland. It just doesn’t seem to happen there.

Below is a list showing all teams that ranked either last or next-to-last in scoring since 2000. Over half of these teams scored more than 100 more points in their next season. Only three of them scored fewer points.

Not saying that either Houston or Jacksonville will make a playoff push or finish with an above-average offense. But the historical trends suggest that they have a really good chance of at least not finishing in the bottom 5 in scoring. About half of these teams manage to escape the bottom 10.

(Oh, and on this chart there are three teams listed from 2004. That’s because the Bills and Giants tied for next-to-last in scoring in the 2003 season.)

LOW SCORING TEAMS SINCE 2000
YearTeamBeforePointsDiff
2001Cleveland10.117.87.8
2001Cincinnati11.614.12.6
2002Cincinnati14.117.43.3
2002Dallas15.413.6-1.8
2003Dallas13.618.14.5
2003Houston13.315.92.6
2004Buffalo15.224.79.5
2004NY Giants15.218.93.8
2004Arizona14.117.83.7
2005Washington15.022.47.4
2005Chicago14.416.31.8
2006New Orleans 14.725.811.1
2006Cleveland14.514.9.4
2007Tampa Bay13.220.97.7
2007Oakland10.517.77.2
2008San Francisco13.721.27.5
2008Kansas City14.118.24.1
2009Cincinnati12.819.16.3
2009St. Louis14.510.9-3.6
2010Oakland12.325.613.3
2010St. Louis10.918.17.1
2011Carolina12.325.413.1
2012St. Louis12.118.76.6
2012Kansas City13.313.2-.1
2013Kansas City13.226.913.7
2013Arizona15.623.78.1
2014Houston17.3????
2014Jacksonville10.9????

—Ian Allan