Clemson's Sammy Watkins is the consensus top receiver in next month's draft, expected to go in the top 5 -- maybe as early as No. 2 to the Rams, who are desperate to find a dominant player at the position. Watkins is generally viewed as a can't-miss talent, but what has the hit rate been like with wide receivers selected that early in the draft?

It's not as favorable as you might expect. For every Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, there's been a Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick or Michael Westbrook. Some Hall of Fame talents, to be sure, but some major disappointments, as well.

Over the last 30 years, just 13 wide receivers have been selected within the top 5 picks. Six have gone on to be stars, while six have disappointed. The jury is still out on Justin Blackmon -- the talent is there, but it remains to be seen how his career will shake out.

Teams miss on top 5 picks all the time, of course; in the past we've shown how the success rate of quarterbacks and running backs selected in the top 5 of the draft is no better. The 50-50 history facing Watkins isn't bad, and not something that should give anyone pause. You could argue that off-field issues are the only strikes again the most recent top-5 selections.

Clearly, though, merely being selected in a spot where few wide receivers are drafted is no guarantee of NFL success.

Those 13 wideouts are presented below. Hits are in bold.

TOP 5 WIDEOUTS, 1984-2013
YearPickPlayer, TeamCollege
20125Justin Blackmon, Jac.Oklahoma State
20114A.J. Green, Cin.Georgia
20072Calvin Johnson, Det.Georgia Tech
20053Braylon Edwards, Cle.Michigan
20043Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.Pittsburgh
20032Charles Rogers, Det.Michigan State
20033Andre Johnson, Hou.Miami
20004Peter Warrick, Cin.Florida State
19961Keyshawn Johnson, NYJSouthern California
19954Michael Westbrook, Wash.Colorado
19924Desmond Howard, Wash.Michigan
19841Irving Fryar, N.E.Nebraska
19844Kenny Jackson, Phil.Penn State

--Andy Richardson