A month or so back, I applauded the Giants picking up Trindon Holliday. He’s an explosive kick returner who could score 2 or even 3 TDs on kick returns. Without a doubt, he’s one of the 3-4 fastest players in the league. He might be No. 1.
But now that I’ve had a chance to look at this more closely, I’d like to retract that.
The Broncos knew exactly what they were doing when they dumped Holliday, just like they were playing things correctly when they pulled him off punt returns.
As I look at the punt returns, in fact, I don’t think you need an explosive, elusive guy like Holliday or Travis Benjamin back there. Instead, it’s the hands that are important.
Think about it. With the very best punt returners, you’ll probably get a touchdown at some point during the season. There was only one guy in the league last year with 2 TDs – Dexter McCluster.
But with punts, anytime you lose a fumble, it’s essentially an automatic field goal. The vast majority of punts are fielded on your own half of the field, and teams need only get to the 35-yard line to attempt a 52-yard field goal. Get to the 30, and it’s almost an automatic field goal for today’s kickers.
And if you lose a fumble, there’s no guarantee it will be just a field goal. A lot of those – maybe 40-60 percent – will be touchdowns.
Looking at last year’s numbers, there are a lot more fumbles than touchdowns. For just guys with at least 20 punt returns, there were only 13 TDs, but there were 53 fumbles. Estimating that maybe half of those fumbles were lost, that would be about 26 occasions where the punt return isn’t creating points but COSTING points.
Below is a voodoo math stat listing of the punt returns. I ignored yards, but that’s just production on the margin. 8 yards or 11 yards, who cares? Instead, I gave players 7 points for each touchdown he scored, and I subtracted 2 points for each fumble.
The 2 points is just a number I settled on. I’m guessing, on average, it costs a team 4 points each time it loses a fumble on a punt. Some will be 7 points, some will be 3, and some won’t result in scores at all. I’m going with 4 points, and with about half of fumbles being lost, I went with 2.
Anyway, using this admittedly crude scoring system, Devin Hester, Jeremy Ross and Tandon Doss were the best punt returns last year. Leodis McKelvin (7 fumbles!), Julian Edelman and LaMichael James were the worst.
Trindon Holliday had a touchdown (against the Giants, by the way) but he fumbled 5 times. He was similar the previous year, with 4 fumbles in 35 punts. He doesn’t have good hands. That’s why the Broncos were correct to bench him last year, and they were also correct to unload him in the offseason.
Giants can perhaps hope that Holliday has been adversely affected by the Mile High atmosphere. With that thin air, he’s been fielding punts in half of his games that have been boomed a little higher, probably making them slightly harder to catch.
| PUNT RETURNS IN 2013 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Player | Ret | TD | Fum | Points | Avg |
| 1. | Devin Hester, Chi. | 29 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .17 |
| 2. | Jeremy Ross, Det. | 30 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .17 |
| 3. | Tandon Doss, Balt. | 30 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .17 |
| 5. | Dexter McCluster, K.C. | 69 | 2 | 2 | 10 | .14 |
| 4. | Keshawn Martin, Hou. | 60 | 1 | 0 | 7 | .12 |
| 7. | Travis Benjamin, Clev. | 29 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .10 |
| 8. | Dwayne Harris, Dall. | 30 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .10 |
| 6. | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 55 | 1 | 1 | 5 | .09 |
| 9. | Micah Hyde, G.B. | 38 | 1 | 2 | 3 | .08 |
| 16. | Tavon Austin, St.L. | 44 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .02 |
| 15. | Marcus Sherels, Minn. | 49 | 1 | 3 | 1 | .02 |
| 10. | Ted Ginn, Car. | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 |
| 11. | Ace Sanders, Jac. | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 |
| 12. | Micheal Spurlock, Det. | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 |
| 13. | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 |
| 14. | Jacoby Jones, Balt. | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 |
| 17. | Golden Tate, Sea. | 65 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.03 |
| 18. | Brandon Tate, Cin. | 52 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.04 |
| 19. | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 50 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.04 |
| 20. | Eric Page, T.B. | 43 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.05 |
| 21. | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 29 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.07 |
| 30. | Trindon Holliday, Den. | 43 | 1 | 5 | -3 | -.07 |
| 22. | Robert McClain, Atl. | 28 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.07 |
| 23. | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 28 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.07 |
| 24. | Marcus Thigpen, Mia. | 54 | 0 | 2 | -4 | -.07 |
| 25. | Rueben Randle, NYG | 53 | 0 | 2 | -4 | -.08 |
| 26. | Santana Moss, Wash. | 26 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.08 |
| 27. | Damaris Johnson, Phil. | 24 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -.08 |
| 28. | Patrick Peterson, Ariz. | 55 | 0 | 3 | -6 | -.11 |
| 29. | LaMichael James, S.F. | 35 | 0 | 2 | -4 | -.11 |
| 31. | Julian Edelman, N.E. | 58 | 0 | 5 | -10 | -.17 |
| 32. | Leodis McKelvin, Buff. | 45 | 0 | 7 | -14 | -.31 |