Looking at some of the overall numbers, I notice that tight ends have gotten a lot better over the years. They’re growing at a faster rate than the other positions.
Namely, teams are averaging 5 more touchdown passes per season relative to 10 years ago. Tight ends have accounted for 65 percent of the increase.
Overall (including yards and touchdowns), tight end production is up 59 percent over the last 10 years. Wide receivers are up only 13 percent, and receiving production for running backs has actually DECLINED a little.
Some of this can be attributed to teams not using fullbacks as much. If you go back to the turn of the century, you’ll see fulbacks like Larry Centers and Richie Anderson catching 80-plus passes. Those players don’t exist anymore. More teams are using two tight ends now.
But more of the difference can be attributed to tight ends simply being more athletic and better than they used to be (and teams using them more).
To confirm that it’s the top-end tight ends who are doing better (and not just that there a whole bunch of 20-30 catch tight ends with 2-3 TDs) I did a little research. I looked at the Nos. 8, 10, 12 and 15 tight ends from all of the last 10 years. Sure enough, they’ve gotten way better.
Check out the numbers below. In a typical fantasy league, there are 12 teams, so I looked at the No. 12 player at each position (using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns, 1 for every 10 yards). For quarterbacks, there’s also 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards. I picked the 12th guy because I wanted more consistency. If you go with the No. 1 guy, stuff gets thrown off by guys like Randy Moss, Rob Gronkowski and LaDainian Tomlinson having insane individual season. If you toss out the top 11 at each position, then you’re looking at what is more of a typical starter.
The final number in each column shows the percentage gain relative to that first player in the group – the 2003 player. As you can see in these stat packages, tight ends have tended to grow at a much faster rate than the other positions.
These numbers support the notion that we should be selecting tight ends earlier than we did back in 2003.
These trends also make me more confident that Eric Ebron will have his name called before we're halfway through the first round tonight. He's definitely the top tight end available, and more and more teams consider that position important.
12TH-BEST TIGHT ENDS SINCE 2003 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pts | Pct |
2003 | Jim Kleinsasser | 46 | 401 | 4 | 64.1 | --- |
2004 | Jeb Putzier | 36 | 572 | 2 | 69.2 | 8% |
2005 | Ben Troupe | 55 | 530 | 4 | 77.0 | 20% |
2006 | Jason Witten | 64 | 754 | 1 | 81.4 | 27% |
2007 | Desmond Clark | 44 | 545 | 4 | 78.5 | 22% |
2008 | Zach Miller | 56 | 778 | 1 | 83.8 | 31% |
2009 | Jermichael Finley | 55 | 676 | 5 | 97.6 | 52% |
2010 | Benjamin Watson | 68 | 763 | 3 | 94.3 | 47% |
2011 | Fred Davis | 59 | 796 | 3 | 97.6 | 52% |
2012 | Antonio Gates | 49 | 538 | 7 | 95.8 | 49% |
2013 | Delanie Walker | 60 | 571 | 6 | 93.1 | 45% |
Recapping what you’re looking at here, since it is a little unconventional. Jim Kleinsasser was the 12th-best tight end 10 years ago. Delanie Walker was the No. 12 tight end this past season. Walker was a lot better than Kleinsasser – caught 14 more passes for 170 more yards and 2 more touchdowns. His overall fantasy stats were 45 percent better.
12TH-BEST WIDE RECEIVERS SINCE 2003 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | Pts | Pct |
2003 | Chris Chambers | 64 | 963 | 11 | 162.3 | --- |
2004 | Isaac Bruce | 89 | 1292 | 6 | 165.2 | 2% |
2005 | Terry Glenn | 62 | 1136 | 8 | 161.6 | 0% |
2006 | Plaxico Burress | 63 | 988 | 10 | 158.8 | -2% |
2007 | Greg Jennings | 53 | 920 | 12 | 164.0 | 1% |
2008 | Lance Moore | 79 | 928 | 10 | 152.8 | -6% |
2009 | Marques Colston | 70 | 1074 | 9 | 161.4 | -1% |
2010 | Jeremy Maclin | 70 | 964 | 10 | 156.4 | -4% |
2011 | Brandon Marshall | 81 | 1214 | 6 | 157.4 | -3% |
2012 | Wes Welker | 118 | 1354 | 6 | 171.4 | 6% |
2013 | Andre Johnson | 109 | 1407 | 5 | 170.7 | 5% |
This is less of an apples-to-apples comparison, because the 2003 guy (Chris Chambers) is a different kind of receiver than Andre Johnson (the No. 12 receiver last year). Johnson caught 45 more pases and finished with 444 more yards, but Chambers caught 6 more touchdowns. So blending that all into fantasy production, Johnson was only 5 percent better than Chambers.
12TH-BEST RUNNING BACKS SINCE 2003 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yards | TD | Pts | Pct |
2003 | Stephen Davis | 1603 | 8 | 208.3 | --- |
2004 | Priest Holmes | 1079 | 15 | 197.9 | -5% |
2005 | Warrick Dunn | 1636 | 4 | 187.6 | -10% |
2006 | Joseph Addai | 1406 | 8 | 188.6 | -9% |
2007 | Marshawn Lynch | 1299 | 7 | 177.9 | -15% |
2008 | Brandon Jacobs | 1125 | 15 | 202.5 | -3% |
2009 | Jonathan Stewart | 1272 | 11 | 193.2 | -7% |
2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew | 1641 | 7 | 206.1 | -1% |
2011 | Frank Gore | 1325 | 8 | 180.5 | -13% |
2012 | Chris Johnson | 1475 | 6 | 183.5 | -12% |
2013 | Ryan Mathews | 1444 | 7 | 186.4 | -11% |
Davis in 2003, Stephen Davis was the No. 12 running back. He finished with 1,603 total yards (rushing plus receiving) and scored 8 TDs. in the last 9 years, the No. 12 running back each season has finished with numbers worse than Davis. That includes Ryan Mathews last year, who finished with 159 fewer yards and one fewer touchdown. Down 11 percent.
12TH-BEST QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2003 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yards | TD | Pts | Pct |
2003 | Jeff Garcia | 3023 | 25 | 283 | --- |
2004 | Michael Vick | 3215 | 17 | 280 | -1% |
2005 | Jake Delhomme | 3452 | 25 | 276 | -2% |
2006 | Vince Young | 2751 | 19 | 257 | -9% |
2007 | Jay Cutler | 3702 | 21 | 281 | -1% |
2008 | Chad Pennington | 3715 | 20 | 271 | -4% |
2009 | Donovan McNabb | 3693 | 24 | 296 | 4% |
2010 | Joe Flacco | 3706 | 26 | 296 | 4% |
2011 | Michael Vick | 3892 | 19 | 302 | 7% |
2012 | Andy Dalton | 3789 | 31 | 327 | 16% |
2013 | Tom Brady | 4361 | 25 | 323 | 14% |
There’s improvement here, but not off-the-charts improvement, like with the tight ends. Brady had an off year but finished only 14 percent ahead of Garcia. Stats here are blend of run and pass (yards are rushing plus passing yards, and same for touchdowns). The “points” are fantasy points using the traditional scoring system.