Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Are Jordan Matthews and Terrance West good targets in a dynasty draft? How early should one go after Julian Edelman? And which third-year quarterback will be better this year, Andrew Luck or RG3?
Question 1
You are very high on Julian Edelman in PPR leagues due to the number of projected catches he will make this year, calling him a top-10 WR. How does he rank in a non-PPR league? Is he worth taking before the 6th round?
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
When I say I think he’s a top-10 receiver, that’s in a regular league. If you move to a PPR format, then I think he’s even better. They just printed the magazines, and he’s my No. 3 wide receiver in that format in those editions. That’s in ink. So I would LOVE to select him in the sixth round. But as good as he is, I would be very nervous letting him get past the third round. In my opinion, Edelman is the favorite to lead the entire league in receptions. I think he could go for 110-120 catches. Look at how it played out last year. The Patriots signed Danny Amendola to replace Wes Welker. Amendola struggled and had some injury problems, and Edelman was better when he was in there. It was for the big showdown against Denver in November that the Patriots finally just said, the hell with it, and put Edelman ahead of a healthy Amendola (who then became a spot-duty guy). In his final eight games, Edelman caught 69 passes for 729 yards, with 5 TDs and two 2-point conversions. That’s half of a season. So project that over 16 games, and you’re looking at 138 catches, 1,458 yards and 11 TDs. He also caught 70 percent of the passes thrown his way, the highest rate of any of the 45 players with at least 100 targets last year. In the same role, Welker caught 67 percent in his last year with the Patriots. Edelman is definitely the real deal, and I don’t know why people have been so slow to pick up on that. We did the Experts Poll in the magazine, and none of the 20 guys included Edelman in their top 20 receivers. To me that’s insane. I’ve seen five experts drafts so far. Three of those were PPR, and two were non-PPR. In the three PPR drafts, Edelman has gone 27th, 29th and 33rd. (I took him 27th in the Fanex draft, Fantasy Alarm took him 29th in one of the FSTA drafts, and Front Row Fantasy Sports took him 33rd in the other, when I tried to sneak him to pick 3.11 rather than selecting him at 2.04 (18th overall). I did a non-PPR draft with Rotowire and selected him at 4.07 in a 14-team league – that’s 49th overall. In our Mock Draft in the magazine (which didn’t include me) L’roy Anthony Hale selected him at 6.03; that’s 63rd overall.
Question 2
We had an early dynasty draft on May 15. I won the league and got Jordan Matthews at 1.12 and Terrance West at 2.12. Did I win the draft lottery?
Mike McGraw (N Chelmsford, MA)
I think you did as well as you could hope to do with the 12th spot. Matthews has done nothing but impress the Eagles so far, and I’m not much of a fan of Jeremy Maclin. Riley Cooper is more of a No. 2 receiver. A year from now, Matthews might be Philadelphia’s clear No. 1 receiver. I like that pick. And I’ve got a feeling West will be Cleveland’s running back before long. He might simply be better than Ben Tate. West ran for over 2,500 yards at Towson. Other less-heralded backs who’ve gone over 2,000 include Kevin Smith (a third-round pick of the Lions) and Joique Bell. West’s measurables are better than those guys.
Question 3
Which QB has more upside, Luck or RG3? Luck has an easier schedule like Manning did last year. RG3 has very good receivers but will his injury stand a whole season?
leo verani (Penn.)
Luck is the correct choice. He’s got better receivers this year, with Wayne and Allen returning from injuries and Hilton, Fleener, Rodgers and Brazill having a little more experience. They added Nicks and Moncrief, and those guys might help. If they give Luck the green light to throw more often, he might push up into the top 5 at this position. Recall that he averaged 273 passing yards per game as a rookie. He finished down at 239 yards last year in part because they went with a more conservative approach, trying to rely on the run more. They opened it up in the postseason, and he went over 300 yards in both games. Griffin is a better runner, but Luck is in the small ballpark. He’s averaged 20 rushing yards per game as a pro, with 9 TDs in 32 games. Griffin averaged 38 rushing yards per game last year, and he’s scored 7 TDs in 28 career games. While I will concede it’s possible RG3 will outperform Luck, I don’t think there’s any question that Luck should be the earlier quarterback chosen in every fantasy draft this summer.
Question 4
I've been playing fantasy football for 24 years and commissioner of my league the last 21. I have used the bible … er … Index every year. My question is about my keepers. We have a very basic keeper league where you can keep 4 players as long as they weren't drafted in the previous years draft first two rounds. I have the 11th pick this year and my eligible keepers are: Stafford, Rivers, Lacy, Stacy, Ball, V.Jackson, Cruz, and Allen. I'm definitely keeping Lacy and Ball. I was leaning towards Stacy and Allen, but I'm not sure Stacy will be the every down back he was last year. Is Allen the stud he appeared to be last year, or am I keeping the wrong receiver? What would be the four players you would keep?
chris betz (Buffalo, NY)
I think you’ve got it sniffed out pretty well. Lacy and Ball can be put in ink right now; you’ll be keeping those guys. I see a lot of parity between the other candidates. Vincent Jackson and Keenan Allen would be the two I would keep today, but I would have an eye on how things develop at training camp. Matthew Stafford, Victor Cruz and Zac Stacy all could potentially work their way into your top 4 before you deadline. Stafford is the No. 4 quarterback on my board. I had Stacy as interchangeable with Montee Ball until the Rams selected Tre Mason. And I’ve got all three of those receivers just outside my top 10 – Jackson, Allen and Cruz.
Question 5
Was wondering if there is any new information on Fantasy Index Open 2014? Appreciate all the time you obviously had to put in with scoring of all entries and look forward to entering again this year? Is there a possibility of an alternate way of entering top 1-20 selections than using the spreadsheet or does that make your scoring easier?
eric gustitus (Exeter, PA)
The entries for the Fantasy Index Open will be due before the kickoff of the first preseason game. That’s Sunday, August 3. So you can start thining about your rankings. We will start running the promos for the contest in early July. The format and rules probably will be pretty similar to last year.