Special Welcome Back edition, kicking off the 2014 season. Ian Allan addresses a handful of intriguing queries, including: How much earlier do you select a quarterback when they're getting 6 points for touchdown passes? What about C.J. Spiller as a potential bust-out running back? And is Toby Gerhart worth a gamble pick?
Question 1
In a TD-heavy league where QBs get 6 points for TD passes, how early should you draft a QB? Would taking one of the big 3 (Manning, Brees, Rodgers) be worth a first round pick? If you can't get one of the big 3, who should you target as a good value pick at QB and what round? The last 3 Super Bowl winners in this league had Rodgers (2011), Brees (2012), Manning (2013) and my team lost the last 3 to those teams. Is it time for a strategy change?
Benjamin MacLeod (GOFFSTOWN, NH)
The big three all need to be selected in the first round. I was just playing around with the numbers some (my projections), and in that scoring system, I have Manning, Brees and Rodgers going 3rd, 5th and 10th. That’s early, but there aren’t many quarterbacks with the potential to throw 40 touchdowns. If you’ve got one of those guys and they get the hot hand, that could be enough to lift your team to a championship. I’ve got five other quarterbacks ranked between 21st and 36th. If I were in your league, I’d love to get Brees or Rodgers early in the second round. If that failed, I’d hope that one of those other quarterbacks dropped down into the fourth round, with Tom Brady probably the most likely guy (he might even make it to the fifth).
Question 2
Interesting fact I noticed: C.J. Spiller only missed one game, and so had roughly a full season of availability. In Marrone/Hackett's new offense, his snap percentage fell from 58% to a meager 34%. That sounds awful for his prospects in the new scheme, but note that he touched the ball on an insane 66% of his snaps. The previous year, in topping 1,700 total yards, his touch rate was only 44%. Extrapolate his actual 2012 numbers over a full season of last year's usage, and you're looking at a 253-rush, 52-catch, 2,078-yard, 10-TD season. Looks pretty clear to me that, when he's not limping, he's the focal point of that offense and a high-value RB1. One who could be obtained in the 3rd or 4th.
Justin Howe (Morristown, TN)
They run the ball a lot. The team ranked 2nd in rushing last year. But they don’t seem to like Spiller as a between-the-tackles guy who can slam it in there. We log all plays inside the 10. It’s part of our studies. And Spiller didn’t have a single rushing attempt inside the 5 last year. So if he’s going to score 10 touchdowns, as you suppose, he’ll need to do it by breaking a lot of longer runs. That’s not easy to do.
Question 3
I would like your opinion on Toby Gerhart, running back for Jaguars. I seem to be one of the few owners who feels he has a bright future. Coming out of college his metrics were outstanding and I think he is a three-down back.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
Agreed. I think he’ll be between 15th and 20th among running backs in drafts, and I wouldn’t mind being the guy to select him. Nice size. He can bust some tackles, and he’s got good enough speed when he builds up a head of steam. I think back to the 41-yard touchdown he scored late in that Baltimore game last year. He averaged 7.7 yards per attempt last year – he’s earned his shot. He’s just been stuck behind Adrian Peterson, that’s all.
Question 4
How much higher do you rank Demaryius Thomas over Dez Bryant heading into this season and why? Next, do you consider strength of schedule matchups throughout the regular season and in FF playoffs at all when ranking players? Thanks for a great product. I look forward to the upcoming season!
JIM HEROUX (NEENAH, WI)
I’ve got Thomas a little higher than Bryant, but they’re in the same ballpark. They’re in the same tier of receivers, I think. Thomas is the No. 2 wide receiver on my board. Bryant is more of a top-5 guy. With him, there’s a little more worry that he’ll get himself in some kind of trouble with a bonehead decision off the field. The Cowboys supposedly have a team of three security guys who follow him around 24 hours a day seven days a week, trying to keep him out of trouble. There’s also the issue with Tony Romo’s back. If that starts flaring up, Bryant probably would decline some. The Broncos have a better passing offense, and Thomas is definitely their go-to option. Decker’s gone, and Welker’s had some issues staying healthy. As for strength of schedule, I run all those numbers but don’t give them too much weight. Sometimes I’ll make note of a guy with a great or lousy matchup late in the year make an effort to remember that at my draft.
Question 5
In a dynasty PPR league, I'm sitting on a very good team that won it all last year Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Stevan Ridley and Latavius Murray as well as a six WR crops that I think is pretty solid (Jordy Nelson, Victory Cruz, Julian Edelman, Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Jarrett Boykin) I'm also fine at TE with Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates and Delanie Walker ... I have been offered pick 1.08 in the rookie draft for Wheaton or Boykin ... first, is that a deal you'd do? And second, given the roster, who would you be looking at drafting in that spot?
Geoff Maleman (LOS ANGELES, CA)
I like Wheaton a lot. I would prefer to keep him and dish off Boykin, who’s just a guy – no real value. I’d gladly ship off Boykin for a second or a third. As far as who you would select at 1.08, candidates would include two tight ends – Ebron and Amaro. Amaro is a pass-catching guy who lines up in the slot a lot – think Dennis Pitta – and the Jets want to use him in that capacity. For running backs, my top six would include Sankey, Hyde, West, Freeman, Mason and Andre Williams. No way will Sankey, Hyde or West make it to 1.08. For wide receivers, you’re looking at Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Matthews, Beckham and Davante Adams. For Green Bay, I’d look at 2015 and beyond and select Adams before Boykin. That’s 14 guys; I’d take all of them before Boykin, but I don’t think I’d take the No. 8 guy before Wheaton.
Question 6
Our dynasty league has an interesting format; $200 cap, 3 year contracts. So at any given point there are players on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year of deals, and a new crop of free agents every year. Anyway. we have a 4-round rookie draft every June (coming up.) The non-playoff teams play a bracket for the 1st pick, which I won last year. In your opinion is Watkins head & shoulders above everyone else? I was thinking about getting one of the rookie QBs; Manziel, Bortles or maybe even Carr? 12 teams, non-serpentine, so I've got the 1st pick in each round, but I could see those QBs going before #13. Football talk is heating up, yeah buddy!
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
I would select Watkins. He looks like he’s got some Julio Jones in him. Not quite as big, but really good after the catch. Can bounce off guys and break tackles, and he’s fast enough to simply get behind defenses. Ran a 4.39 at the combine. He’ll definitely be their No. 1 option for years and years. (Although had there been a 1982 issue of Fantasy Football Index, I would have said the same kind of things about the last receiver they selected out of Clemson, Perry Tuttle, and he never did much of anything – they ended up drafting a guy in the late rounds from Kutztown State a few years later, and he was a lot better.) But Watkins looks promising enough that I think the correct decision is to select him before Bishop Sankey, Carlos Hyde, Terrance West, Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks). You can figure out the quarterback stuff later. There are enough good rookies that I’ll be you get another good one with the 13th pick.
Question 7
I am having a hard time ranking Colt players. Luck is the next great QB and has the addition of Nicks but is still stuck with the same OC. Will the coaching staff let Andrew do his thing? The WRs are even harder to figure out. Wayne is old, Nicks hasn't looked the same for 2 years, and T.Y. looks to have the best value but could be the 3rd option. T-Rich was horrible last year but will be given every opportunity. What to do?
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
Agree on the Colts. It’s a mess. As poorly as Richardson played last year, I think we have to consider the possibility that some other back there will play a big role. Ahmad Bradshaw has been productive but has had a lot of injuries; Vick Ballard is coming off a major surgery, but he also could be a factor. At wide receiver, Reggie Wayne is supposedly coming along nicely. Hakeem Nicks is the big name, but I don’t know that he’s a top-level receiver anymore – he’s really struggled the last two years in New York. I think T.Y. Hilton is the top receiver there, and some of their younger receivers could also play big roles – DaRick Rodgers is a talented guy, and Griff Whalen was playing well at the end of last year. Maybe they get lucky and Donte Moncrief is ready to make a good impact in his first year. The Colts supposedly intend to let Luck pass more this year, so I expect he’ll be a top-10 quarterback – top 5 if everything really falls into place for him.
Question 8
Ian, I have been in a dynasty league for 20 years with the same group of guys and have been buying your magazine for longer then that. Thank you guys for all the hard work you put in. With that being said. I need your advice. I have not won my league in 5 years. My team has been strong, just not strong enough. Here is what I have and what I plan on keeping (we can keep up to 8 players) QB- Brees, Manuel; RB- Foster, McCoy, McFadden, Morris, K.Robinson; WR- K.Allen, Stevie Johnson; TE-Graham. I will keep Robinson over McFadden, I have waited 5 years for McFadden to be great and I am cutting him. Manuel worries me. I am also looking at keeping only one WR. I may have the opportunity to trade for Foles. So I am thinking of keeping Brees, McCoy, Morris, Foster, Robinson, Allen, Graham and Foles if I can get him.
CAL HOSKISON (Carpinteria, CA)
For the guys you list, it’s an easy decision. Stevie Johnson isn’t in the mix (not in my opinion). As well as Khiry Robinson played last year, you have to keep him. So you’re left deciding between Manuel and McFadden. (The other guys are all keepers). For me, I’d got Manuel. I just don’t see McFadden ever getting over the hump. If you can somehow get Foles, he slides into that final keeper slot. (But you already have Brees, so I would be careful about trading away too much for Foles.)
Question 9
I'm in a Dynasty league PPR, and am thinking of trading for either Richardson, Zac Stacy or Ben Tate from the same owner. Of these 3, which do you like the best? Is Richardson a buy-low type of guy? Do you think Stacy is for real? Will Tate stay healthy? I'd assume Richardson would be the most likely to be attained. I would be trading many pickups for this player vs. giving up a current player on my roster. Ultimately, my strategy is to get one of these rbs, then trade my Lacy for a stud WR, whom no one will trade pick ups for. Any help is always appreciated.
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
Sorry, I’m not really interested in any of those three. Not sure that Richardson can really play; Donald Brown was a lot better than him last year. I’m not a Tate fan; in a dynasty format, I’d rather have Terrance West. And with Zac Stacy, as well as he played last year, I don’t know that he has enough talent. Tre Mason could quickly turn that into a timeshare. The smarter move (I think) is to look at obtaining an undervalued wide receiver. Some of these incoming rookie receivers look very good. Brandin Cooks and Jordan Matthews might fit your budget. Who’s got Julian Edelman? How much would it take to pry him away? I think he’ll probably be a top-5 wide receiver in PPR this year, and that owner might be willing to sell him as more of a top-20 receiver.
Question 10
Standard scoring, 0.5 PPR. I can keep up to 3 of the following players in exchange for the draft pick associated with each player. You can blame the unusual keeper values based on whether the player was a previous keeper. I pick 10th overall in a 12-team league. Eddie Lacy (1st round), Justin Blackmon (6th), Christine Michael (7th), Torrey Smith (9th), Alfred Morris (11th), Marcus Lattimore (13th). I was initially thinking Blackmon, T. Smith, and A. Morris. In addition, any idea when the offseason podcasts will start?
William D'allesandro (HUNTINGTON, NY)
Morris is a no-brainer. He’ll easily outplay being an 11th-round draft pick. Blackmon isn’t a consideration; there’s no real reason to believe he’s going to be able to get past the substance-abuse issues that have plagued him his entire career. Lacy and Torrey Smith both are candidates, you’re getting them at slight discounts relative to where they would be chosen. Lacy would be selected maybe 6th-8th, while Smith probably would be chosen in the 7th or 8th round. The intriguing guy, I think, is Christine Michael. The price isn’t cheap – a 7th-round pick (and I presume a 6th in 2015) but he might enter the 2015 or 2016 season as a first-round running back. He’ll be the replacement for Marshawn Lynch, who could get hurt at any time or who could be gone at the end of this season. Morris-Lacy-Michael; those are my three.