By the third round of the NFL Draft, your odds of picking a wide receiver who will turn out to be a great player fall to about 1 in 8. That's what the last 14 years of picks indicate, anyway.
Over the past couple of weeks we've been looking at the hit rates of skill position players drafted in the earliest rounds of the draft. We've reached third-round wide receivers, and there haven't been many stars out of that territory since 2000.
There have been 70 wide receivers drafted in the third round in that span. I count four where it's just too soon to say for sure; players selected the last two years. I decided to be generous with Keenan Allen, who's had one excellent year and a poor one, and also in calling "great" a wideout or two who maybe doesn't quite fit that definition (Nate Burleson, Emmanuel Sanders). For balance, I voted no on Brandon LaFell, who finally emerged with New England (and a great quarterback). I also excluded Harry Douglas.
Even with the uncertainty and generosity, it looks like of the 66 wideouts we can judge at this point, just 9 (14%) merit being called great.
And maybe that's OK. Elite talents generally get snapped up in the first two rounds, which is why the hit rates are better (1 in 4 or 1 in 5, over that same time span). What it does say, though, is no need to fall over each other in dynasty drafts to select wide receivers drafted in the third round. For every Steve Smith or T.Y. Hilton, there are a whole lot of Jordan Shipleys.
Third-round wideouts since 2000, sorted by rookie receiving yards, are presented below.
THIRD-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2000-2014 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pick | Player | Team | Rec | Yards | TDs | Great? |
2013 | 76 | Keenan Allen | Chargers | 71 | 1046 | 8 | Yes |
2012 | 92 | T.Y. Hilton | Colts | 50 | 861 | 7 | Yes |
2009 | 84 | Mike Wallace | Steelers | 39 | 756 | 6 | Yes |
2013 | 74 | Terrance Williams | Cowboys | 44 | 736 | 5 | ? |
2000 | 80 | Darrell Jackson | Seahawks | 53 | 713 | 6 | Yes |
2014 | 91 | John Brown | Cardinals | 48 | 696 | 5 | ? |
2007 | 78 | James Jones | Packers | 47 | 676 | 2 | No |
2010 | 84 | Jordan Shipley | Bengals | 52 | 600 | 3 | No |
2001 | 77 | Marvin Minnis | Kansas City | 33 | 511 | 1 | No |
2010 | 78 | Brandon LaFell | Panthers | 38 | 468 | 1 | No |
2003 | 71 | Nate Burleson | Vikings | 29 | 455 | 2 | Yes |
2014 | 90 | Donte Moncrief | Colts | 32 | 444 | 3 | ? |
2007 | 75 | Laurent Robinson | Falcons | 37 | 437 | 1 | No |
2005 | 83 | Chris Henry | Bengals | 31 | 422 | 6 | No |
2010 | 82 | Emmanuel Sanders | Steelers | 28 | 376 | 2 | Yes |
2000 | 78 | Laveranues Coles | Jets | 22 | 370 | 1 | Yes |
2011 | 82 | Vincent Brown | Chargers | 19 | 329 | 2 | No |
2012 | 69 | T.J. Graham | Bills | 31 | 322 | 1 | No |
2008 | 84 | Harry Douglas | Falcons | 23 | 320 | 3 | No |
2010 | 88 | Andre Roberts | Cardinals | 24 | 307 | 2 | No |
2005 | 96 | Brandon Jones | Titans | 23 | 299 | 2 | No |
2003 | 65 | Kelley Washington | Bengals | 22 | 299 | 4 | No |
2005 | 68 | Courtney Roby | Titans | 21 | 289 | 1 | No |
2013 | 78 | Marquise Goodwin | Bills | 17 | 283 | 3 | No |
2011 | 78 | Austin Pettis | Rams | 27 | 256 | 0 | No |
2013 | 92 | Stedman Bailey | Rams | 17 | 226 | 1 | No |
2004 | 78 | Bernard Berrian | Bears | 15 | 225 | 2 | No |
2006 | 82 | Derek Hagan | Dolphins | 21 | 221 | 1 | No |
2010 | 77 | Damian Williams | Titans | 16 | 219 | 0 | No |
2009 | 91 | Deon Butler | Seahawks | 15 | 175 | 0 | No |
2011 | 79 | Leonard Hankerson | Washington | 13 | 163 | 0 | No |
2012 | 83 | Mohamed Sanu | Bengals | 16 | 154 | 5 | No |
2001 | 74 | Steve Smith | Panthers | 10 | 154 | 3 | Yes |
2007 | 73 | Jacoby Jones | Texans | 15 | 149 | 0 | No |
2000 | 70 | Chris Cole | Broncos | 9 | 128 | 0 | No |
2000 | 66 | Ron Dugans | Bengals | 14 | 125 | 1 | No |
2010 | 87 | Eric Decker | Broncos | 6 | 106 | 1 | Yes |
2006 | 90 | Maurice Stovall | Buccaneers | 7 | 102 | 0 | No |
2014 | 86 | Josh Huff | Eagles | 8 | 98 | 1 | ? |
2000 | 79 | JaJuan Dawson | Browns | 9 | 97 | 1 | No |
2000 | 73 | Ron Dixon | Giants | 6 | 92 | 1 | No |
2008 | 81 | Early Doucet | Cardinals | 14 | 90 | 0 | No |
2012 | 68 | DeVier Posey | Texans | 6 | 87 | 0 | No |
2000 | 69 | Dez White | Bears | 10 | 87 | 1 | No |
2008 | 97 | Andre Caldwell | Bengals | 11 | 78 | 0 | No |
2013 | 79 | Markus Wheaton | Steelers | 6 | 64 | 0 | No |
2009 | 82 | Derrick Williams | Lions | 6 | 52 | 0 | No |
2007 | 99 | Johnnie Lee Higgins | Raiders | 6 | 47 | 0 | No |
2010 | 90 | Taylor Price | Patriots | 3 | 41 | 0 | No |
2007 | 74 | Yamon Figurs | Ravens | 1 | 36 | 2 | No |
2006 | 78 | Travis Wilson | Browns | 2 | 32 | 0 | No |
2008 | 95 | Mario Manningham | Giants | 4 | 26 | 0 | No |
2009 | 85 | Ramses Barden | Giants | 1 | 16 | 0 | No |
2003 | 74 | Kevin Curtis | Rams | 4 | 13 | 0 | No |
2007 | 76 | Jason Hill | 49ers | 1 | 6 | 0 | No |
2004 | 82 | Devard Darling | Ravens | 2 | 5 | 0 | No |
2003 | 95 | Billy McMullen | Eagles | 1 | 2 | 0 | No |
2011 | 83 | Jerrel Jernigan | Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2009 | 83 | Brandon Tate | Patriots | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2009 | 87 | Patrick Turner | Dolphins | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2009 | 99 | Juaquin Iglesias | Bears | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2008 | 70 | Earl Bennett | Bears | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2007 | 79 | Mike Sims-Walker | Jaguars | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2007 | 80 | Paul Williams | Titans | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2006 | 84 | Brandon Williams | 49ers | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2006 | 95 | Willie Reid | Steelers | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2004 | 77 | Derrick Hamilton | 49ers | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2002 | 86 | Marquise Walker | Buccaneers | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2002 | 87 | Cliff Russell | Washington | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
2002 | 95 | Eric Crouch | Rams | 0 | 0 | 0 | No |
--Andy Richardson