By the third round of the NFL Draft, your odds of picking a wide receiver who will turn out to be a great player fall to about 1 in 8. That's what the last 14 years of picks indicate, anyway.

Over the past couple of weeks we've been looking at the hit rates of skill position players drafted in the earliest rounds of the draft. We've reached third-round wide receivers, and there haven't been many stars out of that territory since 2000.

There have been 70 wide receivers drafted in the third round in that span. I count four where it's just too soon to say for sure; players selected the last two years. I decided to be generous with Keenan Allen, who's had one excellent year and a poor one, and also in calling "great" a wideout or two who maybe doesn't quite fit that definition (Nate Burleson, Emmanuel Sanders). For balance, I voted no on Brandon LaFell, who finally emerged with New England (and a great quarterback). I also excluded Harry Douglas.

Even with the uncertainty and generosity, it looks like of the 66 wideouts we can judge at this point, just 9 (14%) merit being called great.

And maybe that's OK. Elite talents generally get snapped up in the first two rounds, which is why the hit rates are better (1 in 4 or 1 in 5, over that same time span). What it does say, though, is no need to fall over each other in dynasty drafts to select wide receivers drafted in the third round. For every Steve Smith or T.Y. Hilton, there are a whole lot of Jordan Shipleys.

Third-round wideouts since 2000, sorted by rookie receiving yards, are presented below.

THIRD-ROUND WIDE RECEIVERS, 2000-2014
YearPickPlayerTeamRecYardsTDsGreat?
201376Keenan AllenChargers7110468Yes
201292T.Y. HiltonColts508617Yes
200984Mike Wallace Steelers397566Yes
201374Terrance WilliamsCowboys447365?
200080Darrell JacksonSeahawks537136Yes
201491John BrownCardinals486965?
200778James JonesPackers476762No
201084Jordan ShipleyBengals526003No
200177Marvin MinnisKansas City335111No
201078Brandon LaFellPanthers384681No
200371Nate Burleson Vikings294552Yes
201490Donte MoncriefColts324443?
200775Laurent RobinsonFalcons374371No
200583Chris HenryBengals314226No
201082Emmanuel SandersSteelers283762Yes
200078Laveranues ColesJets223701Yes
201182Vincent BrownChargers193292No
201269T.J. GrahamBills313221No
200884Harry DouglasFalcons233203No
201088Andre RobertsCardinals243072No
200596Brandon JonesTitans232992No
200365Kelley Washington Bengals222994No
200568Courtney RobyTitans212891No
201378Marquise GoodwinBills172833No
201178Austin PettisRams272560No
201392Stedman BaileyRams172261No
200478Bernard BerrianBears152252No
200682Derek HaganDolphins212211No
201077Damian WilliamsTitans162190No
200991Deon Butler Seahawks151750No
201179Leonard HankersonWashington131630No
201283Mohamed SanuBengals161545No
200174Steve SmithPanthers101543Yes
200773Jacoby JonesTexans151490No
200070Chris ColeBroncos91280No
200066Ron DugansBengals141251No
201087Eric DeckerBroncos61061Yes
200690Maurice StovallBuccaneers71020No
201486Josh HuffEagles8981?
200079JaJuan DawsonBrowns9971No
200073Ron DixonGiants6921No
200881Early DoucetCardinals14900No
201268DeVier PoseyTexans6870No
200069Dez WhiteBears10871No
200897Andre CaldwellBengals11780No
201379Markus WheatonSteelers6640No
200982Derrick Williams Lions6520No
200799Johnnie Lee HigginsRaiders6470No
201090Taylor PricePatriots3410No
200774Yamon FigursRavens1362No
200678Travis WilsonBrowns2320No
200895Mario ManninghamGiants4260No
200985Ramses Barden Giants1160No
200374Kevin Curtis Rams4130No
200776Jason Hill49ers160No
200482Devard DarlingRavens250No
200395Billy McMullen Eagles120No
201183Jerrel JerniganGiants000No
200983Brandon Tate Patriots000No
200987Patrick Turner Dolphins000No
200999Juaquin Iglesias Bears000No
200870Earl BennettBears000No
200779Mike Sims-WalkerJaguars000No
200780Paul WilliamsTitans000No
200684Brandon Williams49ers000No
200695Willie ReidSteelers000No
200477Derrick Hamilton49ers000No
200286Marquise WalkerBuccaneers000No
200287Cliff RussellWashington000No
200295Eric CrouchRams000No

--Andy Richardson