We like to think that we know things, but we don’t. We all like to work under assumptions about the draft, but ultimately – a few years down the road – big holes show up in those cornerstones of logic. So while in the upcoming days, when everyone talks about Amari Cooper being the clear No. 1 receiver in this draft, for example, that will eventually be proven (or not) on the field.

Looking at the past drafts (and I’m working with just receivers here) it’s unusual for that safe, clear No. 1 guy to actually go on to be the best receiver in his class.

Here’s a rundown of the receiver classes in this century. For each group, I’m listing the top 10 guys, plus an extra or two if they’re really notable. The player who had the best career I’ve got in bold. The guy who had the second-best career, I’ve got a black dot next to his name.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2000
PkPlayer
4Peter Warrick
8Plaxico Burress
10Travis Taylor
21Sylvester Morris
29R. Jay Soward
32Dennis Northcutt
36Todd Pinkston
47Jerry Porter
66Ron Dugans
69Dez White
78• (13) Laveranues Coles

Peter Warrick was supposed to be unusually good as a receiver prospect. In hindsight, he wasn’t even the best receiver from his own college team (Laveranues Coles, the 13th receiver chosen) had some very solid years.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2001
PkPlayer
8David Terrell
9Koren Robinson
15Rod Gardner
16Santana Moss
25Freddie Mitchell
30•Reggie Wayne
33Quincy Morgan
36Chad Johnson
41Robert Ferguson
52Chris Chambers
74(11) Steve Smith

For 2001, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers and Chad Johnson also had some good years, but the best of the class wasn’t even one of the first 10 chosen. Steve Smith was great for a decade in Carolina.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2002
PkPlayer
13Donte Stallworth
19Ashley Lelie
20Javon Walker
33Jabar Gaffney
36Josh Reed
46Tim Carter
47Andre Davis
48Reche Caldwell
62Antwaan Randle El
63•Antonio Bryant
65(11) Deion Branch

Not a great class. I went with Javon Walker with the top guy because he had one monster season before getting hurt.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2003
PkPlayer
2Charles Rogers
3Andre Johnson
17Bryant Johnson
44Taylor Jacobs
45Bethel Johnson
54•Anquan Boldin
60Tyrone Calico
65Kelley Washington
71Nate Burleson
74Kevin Curtis

Charles Rogers was supposed to be the best. Even before the drug problems that escorted him out of the league appeared, I thought he looked ordinary in his initial preseason games – not as big as I was expected. He looked like just a guy.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2004
PkPlayer
3Larry Fitzgerald
7Roy Williams
9Reggie Williams
13Lee Evans
15Michael Clayton
29Michael Jenkins
31Rashaun Woods
50Devery Henderson
54Darius Watts
62Keary Colbert
FA•Wes Welker

Everybody thought Fitzgerald would be great, and he was. The 2nd-best receiver from this class, however, wasn’t even one of the 31 who was drafted. Wes Welker carved out a home as a great slot receiver.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2005
PkPlayer
3Braylon Edwards
7Troy Williamson
10Mike Williams
21Matt Jones
22Mark Clayton
27Roddy White
35Reggie Brown
39Mark Bradley
55Roscoe Parrish
58Terrence Murphy
61•(11) Vincent Jackson

Braylon Edwards had one great season, but Roddy White and Vincent Jackson have had far more prodigious careers.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2006
PkPlayer
25Santonio Holmes
36Chad Jackson
44Sinorice Moss
52•Greg Jennings
78Travis Wilson
82Derek Hagan
84Brandon Williams
90Maurice Stovall
95Willie Reid
100Michael Robinson
119(16) Brandon Marshall
252•(31) Marques Colston

For 2006, the best receiver by far has been the 16th one chosen – Brandon Marshall. I didn’t know where to go with Jennings or Colston as the 2nd-best, so I flagged them both.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2007
PkPlayer
2Calvin Johnson
9Ted Ginn Jr.
23•Dwayne Bowe
27Robert Meachem
30Craig Davis
32Anthony Gonzalez
44Sidney Rice
45Dwayne Jarrett
51Steve Smith
73Jacoby Jones

Calvin Johnson is like Fitzgerald. Everybody thought we was the best by far, and it played out that way. The Steve Smith here isn’t the Carolina Steve Smith but the Southern Cal Steve Smith who was a possession guy who had one 100-catch season with the Giants.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2008
PkPlayer
33Donnie Avery
34Devin Thomas
36Jordy Nelson
41James Hardy
42Eddie Royal
46Jerome Simpson
49•DeSean Jackson
51Malcolm Kelly
53Limas Sweed
70Earl Bennett
224(30) Stevie Johnson

No first-round receivers in 2008. Two big hits in the 2nd round – Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2009
PkPlayer
7Darrius Heyward-Bey
10Michael Crabtree
19Jeremy Maclin
22Percy Harvin
29Hakeem Nicks
30Kenny Britt
36Brian Robiskie
50Mohamed Massaquoi
82Derrick Williams
83Brandon Tate
84(11) Mike Wallace
232•(29) Julian Edelman

This was a heralded receiving class, and many of them have had their moments. But none has had really grabbed the league by the horns. I wasn’t sure which guy to put in bold – Maclin, Harvin, Nicks and Crabtree all might have been the No. 1 bolded guy at one point. Two selected outside the top 10 have been better values and maybe better players – Wallace and Edelman.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2010
PkPlayer
22Demaryius Thomas
24Dez Bryant
36Dexter McCluster
39Arrelious Benn
60Golden Tate
77Damian Williams
78Brandon LaFell
82Emmanuel Sanders
84Jordan Shipley
87Eric Decker
195(23) Antonio Brown

For 2009, I didn’t put any receivers in bold and used some extra 2nd-place votes. I’ll make up for it here. Thomas, Bryant and Brown have all been outstanding receivers who would be the best receiver by far in a lot of years. Brown, remarkably, was just a sixth-round pick.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2011
PkPlayer
4A.J. Green
6•Julio Jones
26Jon Baldwin
44Titus Young
58Torrey Smith
59Greg Little
64Randall Cobb
78Austin Pettis
79Leonard Hankerson
82Vincent Brown

Scouts got it right in 2011. Green and Jones are the clear top 2, just like everyone thought they would be.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2012
PkPlayer
5Justin Blackmon
13Michael Floyd
20Kendall Wright
30A.J. Jenkins
33Brian Quick
43Stephen Hill
45Alshon Jeffery
54Ryan Broyles
63Rueben Randle
68DeVier Posey
92•(13) T.Y. Hilton

For 2012, it’s an off-the-radar year. Jeffery and Hilton are definitely the top 2, and neither was selected in the top 40.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2013
PkPlayer
8Tavon Austin
27DeAndre Hopkins
29Cordarrelle Patterson
34Justin Hunter
41Robert Woods
59Aaron Dobson
74Terrance Williams
76•Keenan Allen
78Marquise Goodwin
79Markus Wheaton

Tavon Austin was supposed to be a special, difference-making kind of player in 2013. Hasn’t happened at all.

TOP 10 RECEIVERS IN 2014
PkPlayer
4Sammy Watkins
7•Mike Evans
12Odell Beckham Jr.
20Brandin Cooks
28Kelvin Benjamin
39Marqise Lee
42Jordan Matthews
45Paul Richardson
53Davante Adams
56Cody Latimer

It’s still early for the 2014 draft class. Watkins looks fine. But if they were redrafting today, I’m pretty sure the vast majority of teams would draft Beckham or Evans instead.

Conclusion: For the 2015 draft, the default reasoning is to assume as everyone talks about these receivers, the top guys will be those two everyone is talking about – Amari Cooper and Kevin White. And those guys are fine. I have no problem with either of them. But keep in mind that there are a dozen other viable receivers in this class, and history tells us it’s very likely that some of them will be better than Cooper, White or even both Cooper and White. So we’ll need to trust our own eyes. We should not underestimate guys like Dorial Green-Beckham, Breshan Perriman and Tre McBride. Maybe we like the situation they are drafted into. Maybe we like the way they look in the preseason. History tells us that only rarely does it play out in expected standard script.